Emmy Experts Typing: The case for a Rhea Seehorn win in Best Drama Supporting Actress

Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen
·9 min read
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Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we revisit drama and debate a possible upset in a seemingly done category.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! It’s Friday, and the end of Emmys voting is in sight — even if the ceremony is still months away. That means I’ve got plenty of time to talk and type myself into circles about the Best Drama Supporting Actress race. That’s the one acting category in the dramatic field this year that feels awfully competitive — Sarah Snook and Matthew Macfadyen, congrats on those matching future Emmy wins; Kieran Culkin, I hope and expect for you to join them in the Roy family winners circle. The odds still favor Jennifer Coolidge and that makes sense. She won last year for “The White Lotus” when “The White Lotus” was a limited series and she was better in Season 2 of the show once it became a drama. She’s also Jennifer Coolidge, a beloved figure in the industry who has won awards on a consistent basis for a year. If Coolidge wins for “The White Lotus,” it wouldn’t be a surprise and most normies would likely think it was supposed to happen and move on with their lives. But since I’m overthinking this, I do feel the time is right for Rhea Seehorn to win. The case against Seehorn is pretty compelling: The TV academy has respected but never loved “Better Call Saul,” and it’s entirely possible the show could leave this mortal coil with zero wins despite 53 nominations. Seehorn maybe had her best shot to win this category last year, when the momentum was strongest and “Better Call Saul” was wrapping its Season 6B. That she didn’t win, that “Better Call Saul” is Emmys-less, that Coolidge has historically been tough to beat — these are reasons why Seehorn seems like a real long shot despite ranking second in the odds. But I just feel this in my bones? The “Better Call Saul” team has been super active on the picket lines, which doesn’t matter in terms of voting but also keeps the show in the minds of the Hollywood community. Like Coolidge, Seehorn is an actor’s actor, and her victory would be a boon for the kind of working actors whom we’ve spent all summer reading about being forgotten by an industry that should need them to thrive. She’s also just damn good: Seehorn has the best episode submission among the nominees, and Coolidge has much more internal competition from her “The White Lotus” castmates than she did last year. It feels like this is the kind of win that happens and then everyone says it was obvious from the start. So I’d like to be at the start for once, and I’m going with Seehorn. I know you can’t predict her because you don’t want to jinx a possible win — but tell me if you think this could finally happen.

joyceeng: Seehorn would obviously have my vote if I could cast one, but I’ve been burned one too many times by voters to trust that they will do right by “Better Call Saul” in general. I don’t think it’s impossible, but I need to see it to believe it. This kind of reminds me of last year around this time. The show aired its series finale a few days after final voting began and there was tremendous love for Bob Odenkirk — so much so that people started predicting him to win Best Drama Actor. I didn’t fall for it because I knew better. He did not win and I felt Seehorn’s comforting shoulder pat in my bones. If she does win, it would go down as one of the Emmys’ best choices ever, but I wouldn’t say it would look obvious in retrospect, given “Better Call Saul’s” awful record and their undying Coolidge and “White Lotus” devotion. The fact that she was able to break through so late in the show’s run and hang on to her spot — while Jonathan Banks and Giancarlo Esposito were dropped and failed to return — is a plus. Maybe acting branch is finally caught up on the show now that it’s over? I agree Coolidge faces stiffer internal competition currently. It is funny/sad how, unlike last year, no one is really talking about Odenkirk this time around. He is, however, third in the odds behind the Roy boys, but if you ask most people, they’ll probably say Pedro Pascal is the one likeliest to prevent a “Succession” victory. I have him in third and can definitely see him prevailing, but I think Bella Ramsey is closer to a win in Best Drama Actress, where I have them in second, than Pascal is.

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Christopher Rosen: I’m one of those with Pascal in third, ostensibly showing that I believe he would win if the CE-Bros falter. But I do think Odenkirk has a real fighter’s chance, particularly because of his near perfect Q rating. Odenkirk has spent the entire summer out on the picket lines and while I don’t think that means people are going to vote for him, I do think it counts as further proof that he’s Hollywood’s one true mensch. The guy is just absolutely a favorite, so much so that I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins an Emmy in the guest race next year for “The Bear” despite Jon Bernthal already seemingly well ahead in that future category. We can type about that one later, however. I agree Ramsey is a strong No. 2 behind Snook, but I don’t think that’s a particularly close competition. Ditto for Best Drama Supporting Actor. We briefly talked about the guest races earlier this week, however, and I’d love to continue that conversation here. Drama Guest Actress is particularly tight, with any of the six nominees possibly the eventual winner, including my current last-place holder Cherry Jones. I have to admit, I’m inclined to move Jones up to second behind Harriet Walter, and I could be convinced she’ll win “just because.” How do you think that race shapes up?

joyceeng: I’d feel better about Odenkirk if he had won SAG, for which everyone made the same arguments basically, but he couldn’t stop Jason Bateman from tying James Gandolfini’s record of three wins. A Jones triumph would be like another recent Jones repeat. Ron Cephas Jones (RIP) won his second Best Drama Guest Actor trophy for “This Is Us” in 2020 (the same year Jones, Cherry won for “Succession”). He was fifth in the odds, while she’s currently in fourth. I think he won because he was a former champ on a show the acting branch liked very, very much and there wasn’t a ton of passion for any of his competition, and we know how lazy voters can be in the guest races. The main difference is that he was up against five people from five different shows. As we know, only two dramas exist in the guest categories: “Succession” and “The Last of Us.” It’s tough to say how that impacts voting habits, but you can’t just vote for the show you like the most if that’s how you go about things. Like I said the other day, we might also be unfairly holding Cherry’s sole appearance in the season premiere against her since it feels like a distant memory, but that type of stuff might not matter to voters. And would everyone have her higher had Nan attended Logan’s funeral? Definitely. Sticking with Creative Arts and our fave, “Succession” is predicted to win a category it’s never won: score. I also have Nicholas Britell in first, even though I feel deeply uneasy about it since they refuse to award him here after giving him the win for the iconic theme. He’s also up against himself for “Andor.” “The White Lotus” is around in these parts now after winning theme and limited score last year. There’s also “Wednesday,” which is in second, and “The Last of Us.” Can Britell finally win or will I wind abandoning him in January?

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Christopher Rosen: I was lucky enough to interview Britell this year — still waiting patiently for that RT, Nick! — so obviously I’ll go down with the ship. But this is another category where it feels like there is very little daylight between first and last. If “The Last of Us” is going to win anywhere, I think it could be for its title sequence. That Britell will likely win for his “Andor” theme makes me feel like he won’t be as much of a vote splitter here for “Succession.” So if it comes down to “The White Lotus,” “Succession,” and “Wednesday,” I still think “Succession” can win — particularly because Britell saved his best for last. But if he doesn’t, especially after four seasons, I know the Emmy voters are not serious people.

joyceeng: Wbk with the “Better Call Saul” goose egg. I feel like I’m just hopedicting Britell at this point because I can’t trust them. But I guess I don’t have to think about this again for five months. Now excuse me while I listen to “Andante Risoluto” for the millionth time.

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