Emmy Experts Typing: Will ‘Beef’ sweep through the limited categories?

Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen
·9 min read
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Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss the limited/TV movie races, where “Beef” is predicted to win multiple categories.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! It’s Friday and as you’re reading this someone probably just voted for their 2023 Emmy Award winners (2024 edition). That’s right: Emmy voting is happening now and while the winners will be chosen by end of the month, they won’t be announced until next year. Such is life! We’re already spoken and typed about how that’s a big swing and a miss on the part of the Emmys’ broadcast partner, so instead, let’s keep things positive and look at some fairly competitive races. I’m typing, of course, about the limited series and movie categories where, for once, some movies are actually in play. We can get to that when we shift over to directing and writing, but let’s start with the main limited series category where we both have “Beef” emerging victoriously. In fact, I think the Netflix show has a good chance of sweeping through this whole thing: series, lead actor for Steven Yeun, lead actress for Ali Wong and supporting actor for Young Mazino, plus directing for showrunner Lee Sung Jin. I am, of course, compromised, having spoken to numerous people involved in “Beef,” including Mazino, who would be an upset winner based on our odds and the general consensus among the experts. For that category, most have Paul Walter Hauser winning for his stellar work on “Black Bird.” I wouldn’t be mad at it: Hauser is the real deal on that show and it was definitely better than its mediocre Emmys showing would suggest. But my rationale for Mazino is that he’s on the show voters really liked — “Beef” tied with “Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” for most nominations among limited series with 13, but “Monster” missed a key nomination in writing and also presumably left one or two acting nominations on the table. If voters have “Beef” fever, why wouldn’t Mazino win here — particularly when his entire performance is played opposite the two actors I expect to win in the lead categories? It would be an upset, but one I think maybe will be easier to imagine in hindsight. Joyce, you’ve stuck with PWH, and I assume you will until we have to think about this in January ’24, but make the case — and then type me through what we should expect in the writing and directing categories, where “Beef” and my beloved “Fleishman Is in Trouble” could split the wins.

joyceeng: As someone who predicted “Black Bird’s” snub in series, I have always had PWH in first, all through Phase 1 and now probably through January. The “‘Beef’ is the series favorite” argument would be much stronger if the entire membership voted for all the winners. But it’s branch voting and we’ve always known the actors have been here for “Black Bird” since SAG was the only guild it hit with noms for Hauser and Taron Egerton. Hauser also has the baiter, (vocally) “transformative” performance, and while I wouldn’t say the passion for him feels level with that of, say, Dominique Fishback, I do think most folks are impressed and taken by his turn. Your argument for Mazino, who is very good on “Beef,” is that he’ll be a coattail win. It feels like Hauser will be more people’s favorite performance than Mazino would be. I’ve invoked Ben Whishaw multiple times already, so I won’t harp on it again, but to recap: Hauser could just be the next Whishaw. I don’t think he is unbeatable, but this could be one of those categories in which everyone is looking for an alternate because of the apparent weakness of the frontrunner (no series nom), but the other nominees aren’t super strong or don’t have a ton of passion themselves, so the frontrunner still wins. I’m not predicting him, but I’d be more wary of Murray Bartlett, who gives an incredibly actor-friendly performance on acting branch fave “Welcome to Chippendales.” I’ve made no changes, so I still have “Beef” taking writing and “Fleishman” in directing. As I’ve said before, I would have “Beef” winning directing right now if there were one nominee, but I’m not sure which episode has the edge. “Figures of Light” is the odds-on favorite, but this could be another case in which the underdog episode (“The Great Fabricator”) wins directing instead, like when “Succession’s” “Hunting” defeated “This Is Not for Tears” and when “The Crown’s” “War” beat “Fairytale.” The coolest win here would be “Prey,” but I’m not going to go there yet, not when I still have five months left to (not) think about this. Neither of us has “Dahmer” winning anything above the line, but both Evan Peters and Niecy Nash-Betts are in first place in the odds. Even though Claire Danes‘ killer turn in “Me-Time” is much tougher competition, I think Nash-Betts has a better shot at winning than Peters does. I’m not even holding his SAG loss that much against him, but Yeun feels like he has more intangibles on top of his performance and the “Beef” support.

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Christopher Rosen: I hazard to suggest a speech at the Critics Choice Awards, where Nash-Betts had to give a speech alongside Hauser, has any impact, but to suggest that: I believe the “Dahmer” star’s speech was one of the best in a long time and really articulated her struggle and work to become an actor. So, I’m pretty torn on that category too, even though I have Danes winning and have had her there for months. We know “Dahmer” was widely seen and Nash-Betts is a force. To pull out my Joyce impression for a moment, if this were the tape system, no doubt Danes would win. But I am leaning toward Nash-Betts now since “Dahmer” does feel like it has some wins in it beyond what we’re expecting. (I also think two-time winner Paris Barclay could surprise in the directing category due to his immense status in the industry.) But I don’t think Yeun is vulnerable; Peters already has an Emmy and I’m not sure there’s a lot of rooting factor there for the Dahmer performance. It’s the kind of work that is widely respected but not necessarily loved. Wong has the tougher road in the actress race, only because there are a lot of directions that category can go. You’ve got her winning but with Fishback close behind. Do you think there’s a world where she comes out on top?

joyceeng: If Nash-Betts wins the Emmy, she will accept it on the one-year anniversary of her Critics Choice win for the same performance on a show that aired in September 2022. What a time to be alive. Yes, Fishback can win, but, again, I’m not going to go there yet when I have all the time in the world. Outside of Regina King‘s victory for “Seven Seconds” because she was Regina King competing in an extremely weak field as her show’s only nomination, no one else has won this category for a non-series nominee under the expanded voting system that started in 2015. Since then, four of the winners also hailed from series winners, so that favors Wong if you think “Beef” is taking the top prize. The only other nominees here from series contenders are your fave, Lizzy Caplan, and Stevie Nicks‘ fave, Riley Keough. And there’s Jessica Chastain, who’s in second in the odds, clearly off the strength of her upset win at SAG… and also being an Oscar winner? And a recent Tony nominee? Because some people think that stuff matters at the Emmys. (Remember the Triple Crown/near EGOT talk?) The SAG was obviously a big get since Amanda Seyfried was about to complete her sweep, but Chastain is not competing against any of those people — Nash-Betts, Emily Blunt and Julia Garner were the other nominees — at the Emmys. Would I be surprised if she won? No, but that’s a long way of saying I have her in third.

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Christopher Rosen: No disrespect to Chastain, but more because of the depth of this category, I actually have her in fifth place behind Fishback, Caplan, and Keough as well. We briefly mentioned “Prey” earlier — soon to arrive on 4K Blu-ray! — and it’s a writing nominee along with two other movies, “Fire Island” and “Weird.” I don’t really have anything to add here — I don’t think “Prey” can compete for a win in the writing category, and “Fire Island” and “Weird” seem like longer shots — but it’s kind of fun. A limited series, anthology and movies category that has all forms of the genre represented. We love to see it almost as much as the chaos that comes from holding a 2023 awards show in 2024.

joyceeng: Not to be a broken record, but they should move the TV movie category back to the main show. It’s competitive this year! I almost put “Prey” in first last month but went with the consensus “Weird” instead. Maybe my New Year’s resolution should be switching to “Prey.” “Chip ‘n Dale: Rescue Rangers” and “Prey” would be an iconic pair of back-to-back winners.

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