Emmy Experts Typing: Will ‘The Bear’ serve up more wins than we’re all expecting?

Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen
·9 min read
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Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we tackle comedy on the heels of “The Bear’s” Season 2 drop.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! Or should I say, “Yes, chef”? We’re typing right in the middle of the Emmy nominations voting period, so every sentence counts — at least for a few more days. But we’re also typing on the day after “The Bear” Season 2 dropped all its episodes on Hulu. We’ve talked about this show many times already — including this week with our voices — and it was well positioned for numerous Emmy nominations before Season 2 debuted on Thursday. But having watched most of the episodes already — I know you finished — I’m wondering if “The Bear” Season 1 might get a slight boost with Emmy voters similar to how we all felt “Ted Lasso” Season 1 was helped by “Ted Lasso” Season 2 on its way to Emmy wins back in 2021. For starters, the new episodes are funnier than Season 1, making it seem more like a “comedy” than maybe anyone felt previously. For another, thanks to a strong arc and some solid material throughout, I think a fringe contender like Ebon Moss-Bachrach has a better shot of making the cut in the Best Comedy Supporting Actor race — a prediction on which you’ve held firm. (I dropped my beloved Richie after the category was downgraded to seven nominees instead of eight.) The new season also has me thinking of post-nomination predictions: Jeremy Allen White remains the frontrunner for comedy actor, but I’m now contemplating whether Ayo Edebiri can jump ahead of favorites and past supporting actress winners like Sheryl Lee Ralph and Hannah Waddingham when all is said and done. “The Bear” has long had a lot of industry support as we’ve discussed — and Edebiri in particular feels ready to make an even larger leap than she did last year. I don’t know, maybe I’m just hopped up on recency bias and Wilco songs, but “The Bear” feels like it could be a major Emmy player beyond White’s lead performance. But talk me down like always, and help me figure out this riddle: If Moss-Bachrach and “Ted Lasso” Season 3 MVP Phil Dunster do make the supporting actor list — something I’m just about to predict again because I’m nothing if not me — then which veteran star falls off?

joyceeng: I was never planning on abandoning EMB, and now after finishing Season 2, I am ready to move him up — not to first because my name is not Chris Rosen and getting the nomination remains the trickier part. But if he makes it in and “The Bear” goes over as big as we expect in both Season 1 noms and Season 2 viewer reception, he can be win-competitive. As I said the other day, I’m not obsessed with “The Bear,” but I loved Season 2. I think it’s better than the inaugural installment and I’ve already rewatched multiple episodes (something I never did with Season 1), including the Richie-centric “Forks.” “Fishes” will monopolize the ink and hype, thanks to its carousel of previously unannounced famous faces sans Bob Odenkirk — and it is a great hour — but “Forks,” in my book, is pound for pound the best episode of the season and my favorite of the whole series. It’s a tremendous showcase for Moss-Bachrach’s talents as Richie finds his purpose and comes to understand what the industry is about while staging at a fancy-pants restaurant owned by another surprise guest star, and multiple Richie arcs are threaded with the perfect needle drop. What I’m saying is, “Forks” could be his “Rainbow.” But, again, he has to get the nomination first, something that was never in doubt for Brett Goldstein for Season 1 of “Ted Lasso.” If he and Dunster make it, Harrison Ford is arguably the most vulnerable, just because “Shrinking” is untested. He’s hilarious on the show and would also be win-competitive if nominated, but it also feels like a lot of the confidence in him is because he is Harrison Ford, who has never been an awards magnet. I can already feel you getting ready to drop Tony Shalhoub again.

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SEE Experts slugfest: How will ‘The Bear’ Season 2 impact its Season 1 Emmy chances?

Christopher Rosen: I was ready to drop Shalhoub — and what I’m about to type could easily apply to him as well — but in terms of both Shalhoub and Ford, I feel like it could be an enthusiasm thing. Call it the Denis Villeneuve. I don’t doubt most people will have Shalhoub and Ford on their lists — but I have a hard time imagining anyone would place them near the very top, not when Goldstein and Tyler James Williams remain such beloved performers and Dunster and Moss-Bachrach are sure to have their passionate fans. In that scenario, then, I think Ford could drop off because like you typed, “Shrinking” is untested and many of us — guilty — have kind of just put him in by default, especially because he’s so funny on the show. But when push comes to shove, it’s easy to imagine him missing — and while I don’t think the Shalhoub Hive is as engaged as they were in the early seasons of “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,” he’s a former winner who is kind of afforded an emeritus status here. So, yeah, I think Ford is maybe my drop in the end — unless I change my mind again. I agree that Season 2 of “The Bear” feels like a big leap forward from Season 1 — in part because Season 1 still felt like a movie script spread into an eight-episode TV show. Season 2 is a TV show from the jump. So do you think it can win the top prize? I ask this while acknowledging that “Ted Lasso” remains the show to beat and the discourse seemingly hasn’t dimmed the academy’s interest in the cast and crew and that “Abbott Elementary” clearly has the actors’ support in the bag.

joyceeng: I’ve had “The Bear” in second to “Ted” this whole time and I will keep it there for the time being. Outside of nominations, I need to see if Season 2 will sustain and grow in buzz and affection the next two months. It’s amorphous but something you can sense while it’s happening. I’d also be more confident in it winning if it were not so inherently dramatic because voters have gone with lighter stuff for the series win. Season 2 is more comedic and the show’s trademark chaotic scenes are played more for laughs than stress this time, so, like you said, that could help its Season 1 cause. We already know the industry is very much here for “The Bear” since it won PGA and WGA over the widely predicted “Abbott” and got a DGA nomination while “Abbott” was snubbed. I think I’ve said it here (or somewhere) before, but even if it doesn’t win the top prize, I can see “The Bear” pulling a “Hacks” Season 1 with lead acting, writing and directing victories. FX was very strategic with its writing and directing submissions — just one in each category — while “Abbott,” the reigning champ in the former and a snubbee in the latter last year, submitted three in both. I think a lot of people feel like “Abbott” will win writing again… but what if it doesn’t?

SEE Emmy Experts Typing: How will the limited supporting categories shake out?

Christopher Rosen: Like you mentioned when we talked about the ballots, the episode writers are not actually named — and it was easy to connect Quinta Brunson to the pilot for “Abbott” but maybe less so for voters to connect the Season 2 premiere to the creator and star. It’s very possible “The Bear” could win writing too and we’ve already assumed it’ll win directing. That means it very well could be “Hacks” Part 2, leaving series to either “Ted” or “Abbott” depending on how the Phase 2 of this race goes. We discussed this week that “Abbott” could win three of the four acting categories pretty easily and maybe it would take series in that case too. But after “The Bear” Season 2, I could be convinced “The Bear” pulls off the same trick — Edebiri just feels on the cusp of a huge breakout on top of her previous breakout. That still might leave “Ted” as the series winner and it’ll take a lot of noise for me to move off it. But I do think this race is closer than ever before. Unless it’s not and Emmy voters just love “Ted” too much. I’ll leave you with a last word, anything else to order up?

joyceeng: “Ted,” right now on June 23, feels like it has enough juice to eke out one more win a la “Game of Thrones” Season 8. Season 3 was divisive but nowhere near as hated as the final season of “Game of Thrones” (correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t see a petition asking for Season 3 of “Ted” to be remade). That being said, I don’t think any of “Thrones'” competition in 2019 was close to dethroning it as “The Bear” and “Abbott” ostensibly feel like they could be. Edebiri could very well be a three-time Emmy nominee in three weeks with additional bids in guest for “Abbott” and writing for branch fave “What We Do in the Shadows.” I won’t go as far to pencil her in for a win yet, but maybe a pep talk from Coach K would psych me up for the possibility.

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