Don’t count Charles Melton (‘May December’) out of the Oscar race just yet

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Charles Melton hasn’t had a great week. First, he missed out on the BAFTA longlist for Best Supporting Actor. Then, he was snubbed by the Screen Actors’ Guild Awards in their list of official nominees. The two notable omissions have damaged Melton’s chances of an Oscar nomination for his breakout role in Todd Haynes‘ exquisite “May December.”

The Netflix movie follows Natalie Portman as an actress who visits a couple (Julianne Moore and Melton) to do research on them for a film based on the couple’s past scandal. The scandal in question revolves around the couple’s initial affair, which began when the woman was in her 30s and the boy was only 13. As the man — Joe — Melton delivers one of the most heartbreaking performances of the year. Robert Downey Jr. delivers a drama acting masterclass in “Oppenheimer,” Ryan Gosling delivers a comedy masterclass in “Barbie,” and Melton delivers a masterclass in tragedy in “May December.” He more than holds his own against the might of Portman and Moore and provides one of the best performances of the entire year let alone one of the best supporting performances.

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As a result, Melton’s awards season began well, snagging Best Supporting Actor nominations at both the Golden Globes (where Downey Jr. won) and the Critics Choice Awards. However, SAG decided to nominate Downey Jr, Gosling, Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Willem Dafoe (“Poor Things”), and Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”).

Meanwhile, the BAFTA longlist, which comes before they announce their official nominations on January 18, consisted of the following 10 names: Anthony Hopkins (“One Life”), Ben Whishaw (“Passages”), Dominic Sessa (“The Holdovers”), Jacob Elordi (“Saltburn”), Jamie Bell (“All of Us Strangers”), Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”), Paul Mescal (“All of Us Strangers”), and the aforementioned trio of De Niro, Downey Jr, and Gosling. The fact that BAFTA didn’t think Melton’s performance was one of the 10 best supporting male performances of the year is baffling. And it dented Melton’s hopes of landing his first Oscar nomination.

However, the SAG and BAFTA omissions have not ended Melton’s Oscar chances completely as there have actually been quite a few thespians who have secured Oscar nominations without SAG and BAFTA bids. In the last 10 years, the following eight actors were all nominated for Best Supporting Actor despite being snubbed by both SAG and BAFTA.

  • Brian Tyree Henry for “Causeway” in 2023.

  • Judd Hirsch for “The Fabelmans” in 2023.

  • J.K. Simmons for “Being the Ricardos” in 2022.

  • LaKeith Stanfield for “Judas and the Black Messiah” in 2021.

  • Michael Shannon for “Nocturnal Animals” in 2017.

  • Sylvester Stallone for “Creed” in 2016.

  • Tom Hardy for “The Revenant” in 2016.

  • Jonah Hill for “The Wolf of Wall Street” in 2014.

There is a real mix here of veteran performers (Stallone, Simmons, and Hirsch) and young talent (Hill, Stanfield, and Henry) so it shows that the academy are willing to nominate any kind of performer for any kind of performance if they deem it worthy enough. Melton would fit nicely in this list — and he deserves to.

It should be noted, however, that none of these eight names went on to win Best Supporting Actor. They all remained nominees, although Stallone probably came closest in his two-horse race with “Bridge of Spies” actor Mark Rylance, who eventually triumphed. So, if Melton does get nominated, it’s likely that the nomination itself will be the win. Don’t expect him to compete for the victory.

But that makes sense anyway as Downey Jr. is fast becoming the consensus pick. He won the Golden Globe, is expected to win the Critics Choice Award, and is also nominated at BAFTA and SAG. We are also predicting him to win the Oscar, too. Our other predicted nominees for the Best Supporting Actor Oscar are Gosling, De Niro, Ruffalo, and… Melton! SAG nominees Dafoe and Brown are breathing down the former “Riverdale” star’s neck but Melton is clinging on to that fifth nomination spot for now. These eight names prove he can do it and claim that well-deserved Oscar nomination despite the lack of support from SAG and BAFTA. Let’s hope he can become the ninth actor in 10 years to do that.

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