How does ESPN FPI feel about Rutgers football making a bowl game?
Rutgers football is set to enter its third season of a substantial rebuild under head coach Greg Schiano. But is this the season that the Scarlet Knights qualify for a bowl game outright*?
(*Yes, we are fully aware that Rutgers made the Gator Bowl last season under some unusual circumstances and that should be applauded…but we’re talking six wins here, people*)
According to ESPN FPI, Rutgers stands just an 11.3 percent chance of getting a sixth win this season. That is the lowest in the Big Ten (Indiana at 17.1 percent is the next lowest).
Rutgers is being projected to go 4-8 this upcoming season according to the ESPN metric.
To be bowl eligible, a program traditionally needs to reach a sixth win. Last season, Rutgers fell just short of that standard by going 5-7 following a home loss in their regular season finale to Maryland.
They got into the Gator Bowl as the next best team with a 5-7 record when Texas A&M had to pull out of the game.
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As such, the road for Rutgers to get a sixth win is steep. The out-of-conference schedule is steeper this year with the addition of a game at Boston College in the season opener. The team says they are completely focused on that one.
And the Big Ten schedule features the usual tough slate of conference games in what is the toughest division in college football.
Now if Rutgers runs the table in the out-of-conference schedule to start the season at 3-0, that would change the outlook significantly but not entirely for the Scarlet Knights to get to six wins. Keep in mind that last season, Rutgers started the year undefeated in their first three games.
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In all likelihood, in order to be bowl eligible, Rutgers would need to win two games in October from their homestand against Nebraska and Indiana and then take one road win at Minnesota in late October or at Maryland to close out the season.
