What does Donna Deegan's win in Jacksonville mayoral race mean for Florida Democrats?

Donna Deegan's victory Tuesday in the Jacksonville mayor's race reinforces that Duval County is a purple county on the state's political map, even as recent election results in the county have swung back and forth between red waves for Republicans and blue rallies for Republicans.

In the past 12 years, Jacksonville has had four mayoral elections. Alvin Brown, running as a conservative Democrat, won in 2011. Lenny Curry, a Republican, ousted Brown in 2015 and was handily re-elected in 2019. Deegan, a Democrat, became mayor-elect Tuesday by defeating Daniel Davis who ran with an $8 million campaign warchest and the Republican Party establishment behind him.

For Republicans, a win by Davis would have put a stamp on Gov. Ron DeSantis's double-digit victory in November and further frustrated Democrats who had started to call the county "Bluval" after strong showings in state and federal elections in 2018 and 2020.

Deegan's victory gave the Democratic Party a shot in the arm and showed how Democrats can win if they close the turnout gap with Republicans and appeal to independent voters.

Here are some takeaways from the runoff election Tuesday.

The winner: Democrat Donna Deegan becomes first female mayor of Jacksonville

How Deegan got there: 10 things to know about new Jacksonville mayor Donna Deegan

Nate Monroe's instant analysis: Deegan upsets decades of power in winning mayoral race

Does Deegan's victory signal an electoral shift to the Democratic Party?

No. Republicans will hold 14 of 19 seats on City Council plus the office of sheriff, tax collector and supervisor of elections.

But Deegan's victory does reflect the changing political landscape in Duval County, said Rick Mullaney, director of the Public Policy Institute at Jacksonville University.

"For those who think this is a deep red county, I think they may be misreading the demographics and they're misreading some of the voting trends," Mullaney said.

He said it's a county that's been "leaning purple and trending blue" in voter makeup.

Deegan won nearly 52% of the vote and fellow Democrat Joyce Morgan captured 50.7% in another countywide race for property appraiser.

In the third countywide race on the ballot Tuesday, Chris Miller, a Republican, won 52.8% of the vote against Charles Garrison, a Democrat, for the City Council at-large Group 5 seat. Miller's margin showed a chunk of voters split their tickets by choosing a Republican for City Council and a Democrat for mayor.

What does Deegan's win mean for Duval's place in Florida politics?

Democrats have done well recently in Duval County. Andrew Gillum won the county in 2018 when he ran for governor against DeSantis. Joe Biden in 2020 became the first Democrat to carry Duval County in a presidential election since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

DeSantis turned the county toward the Republicans in November and the GOP headed into the spring election season with political momentum.

In Duval County, Republicans accounted for 45% of voters and Democrats cast just 39% of ballots in the November election. Republican voters again were at 45% of turnout in the Jacksonville mayor's race, but Democrats increased their share to 42%.

Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried and state Republican Party Chairman Christian Ziegler both worked on get-out-the vote drives for the mayor's race.

Fried call it a "tremendously large win." Ziegler pointed to Republican candidates winning all five at-large City Council seats that voters elect countywide.

Mullaney said he doesn't think the mayoral election results can necessarily predict what will happen in statewide politics. "I think the dynamics of this race relate very much to the candidates and aren't as much about party," he said.

What impact did Gov. Ron DeSantis have on the mayor's race?

DeSantis endorsed Davis after the March first election narrowed the field to Davis and Deegan for the runoff, but DeSantis didn't campaign with Davis in person.

DeSantis likewise endorsed Jason Fischer in the race for Duval County property appraiser. Fischer's campaign signs and ads showed him standing shoulder to shoulder with DeSantis. Fischer also lost on Tuesday.

More: Losses for two candidates backed by DeSantis hurts ability to portray himself as a winner

In contrast to this year's Jacksonville City Hall races, DeSantis had a rally last August in Jacksonville supporting his picks for two Duval County School Board seats. April Carney and Charlotte Joyce both won. In February 2022, DeSantis recorded a robocall urging Republicans to vote for Nick Howland, a Republican, in a City Council special election that Howland won.

"His impact was immense," Howland said at that time. "It really helped bring the turnout."

DeSantis has been laying the groundwork for a presidential campaign that would put him and former president Donald Trump on the ballot in the Florida presidential primary in March 2024. Trump quickly seized on Davis's loss to attack DeSantis by saying Davis would have won if he'd sought Trump's support, an attack that could come up again in next year's presidential race.

Where did Donna Deegan and Daniel Davis run strongest?

Deegan drew from the Democratic Party's base in northwest Jacksonville, which is home to the biggest share of Black voters in the city, while also doing well in southwest Jacksonville, Arlington and historic neighborhoods such as San Marco and Riverside.

She won some suburban precincts in the Southside and at the Beaches, but those parts of the city largely favored Davis. He dominated in Mandarin while winning in East Arlington, the northeast part of the city, the far Westside of the city, and Ortega.

The San Marco neighborhood has emerged as a bellwether for city elections. Brown won those precincts in 2011, Curry captured them in 2015, and Deegan was the leading vote-getter in San Marco in this year's race.

What role did independent voters play in the outcome?

Independent voters not affiliated with either party accounted for 11.5% of all voters, a higher percentage than past elections that showed their growing clout in elections, said John Daigle, a Jacksonville political consultant.

He said Deegan tailored her closing message to moderate voters and enabled her to pick up support from independent voters because Davis doubled down on generating support from Republican voters with a message that "went further right" in the runoff election campaign.

"That left a lane in the middle where Donna seemed to do very well," Daigle said. "We had an overperformance of independents and Donna made a push in that direction and Daniel went the other way."

Will the results change the use of attack ads?

Mullaney said the Davis campaign's attack ads turned off voters who weren't affiliated with either party and created a sharp contrast with Deegan.

"She was energetic, she was articulate, she communicated well and she demonstrated she had done her homework," Mullaney said.

He said the Davis campaign took a "win at all cost" approach that appealed to the Republican Party base but kept voters from viewing Davis in a positive way. Mullaney said that is the aspect of the campaign that could resonate most with statewide and federal politics.

"A big part of this election, I believe, was a rejection of the Davis's campaign approach that was so negative and so divisive," Mullaney said.

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: What does Donna Deegan's victory mean for Democrat-Republican balance?