Despite demoralizing loss, FPI shifts in favor of the Auburn Tigers

It was a re-run on Saturday night at Jordan-Hare Stadium for the Auburn Tigers. In the last five SEC games under Bryan Harsin, the team held a double-digit lead against the opposition. The team is just 1-4 during that run. After grabbing a commanding 17-0 lead early in the second quarter, the offense disappeared and left the defense hanging.

While the loss brings a familiar sting, the goals are still on the table for Harsin and company. As Auburn sits at 3-2 and 1-1 in conference play, they can still get to the SEC title game but the margin for error is very slim. Operating with that small of a window can make things difficult.

As we break down the game-by-game predictions using ESPN’s Football Power Index, we see a slight shift in favor of Auburn. The team can make a run at a bowl game appearance.

Oct. 8: at Georgia Bulldogs

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Win Probability: 6.1%

Difference from Week 5: (+2.1%)

Projected Record: 3-3

Oct. 15: at Ole Miss Rebels

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 15.9%

Difference from Week 5: (+2.4%)

Projected Record: 3-4

Oct. 29: vs Arkansas Razorbacks

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 56.4%

Difference from Week 5: (+5.6%)

Projected Record: 4-4

Nov. 5: at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 20.1%

Difference from Week 5: (+1.3%)

Projected Record: 4-5

Nov. 12: vs Texas A&M Aggies

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 52.8%

Difference from Week 5: (+7.3%)

Projected Record: 5-5

Nov. 19: vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

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Win Probability: 62.3%

Difference from Week 5: (+11.6%)

Projected Record: 6-5

Nov. 26: at Alabama Crimson Tide

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Win Probability: 3.0%

Difference from Week 5: (+0.4%)

Projected Record: 6-6

Overall Ranking

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No. 48 Overall

Auburn climbs four spots from No. 52 last week.

Strength of Record

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No. 50 Overall

After the loss to LSU, Auburn dropped six spots from No. 44.

Remaining Strength of Schedule

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No. 1 Overall

Auburn maintains its spot at the top with games against Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama on the horizon.

Overall Efficiency

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No. 76  Overall (50.1)

Auburn climbed up 10 spots this week in overall efficiency.

Offensive Efficiency

Todd van Emst / AU Athletics

No. 87 Overall (40.8)

The offense moved up four spots after the game against LSU.

Defensive Efficiency

Todd Van Emst/AU Athletics

No. 54 Overall (59.9)

The defense climbed 30 spots for their efforts against LSU.

Story originally appeared on Auburn Wire