Da’Vine Joy Randolph (‘The Holdovers’) takes the lead in Oscar odds for Best Supporting Actress

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The Oscar race for Best Supporting Actress was upended when it was announced that front-runner Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) would be competing as a lead actress instead. After much shuffling, though, Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”) has taken the lead in our odds. Scroll down to see the graph illustrating her trajectory in the race. Click on the graph for more prediction stats.

Set in the early 1970s, “The Holdovers” is about a prep school teacher (Paul Giamatti) who is forced to stay on campus over the holidays with a student (Dominic Sessa). Randolph plays the school’s head cook who recently lost a son in the Vietnam War. The film premiered on August 31 at the Telluride Film Festival and has since earned an 83 score on MetaCritic and 96% freshness rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Randolph’s performance has been singled out as “sensational.” She “gives her best performance since her breakout role in 2019’s ‘Dolemite Is My Name’” and “blends her elite sense of timing with a deeply moving portrayal of a woman struggling to keep her head above the rising tide of her loss.”

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Randolph received a few plaudits for her aforementioned breakthrough performance in “Dolemite,” winning Best Supporting Actress from the African-American Film Critics Association and the Kansas City Film Critics Circle, but that 2019 film didn’t quite make the cut with the motion picture academy. This time, though, Randolph is in a film by director Alexander Payne, whose films have earned seven acting nominations to date, though none of his performers have won yet.

Nevertheless, Randolph has risen from fourth place in our odds, where she was on September 14, to first place as of September 22. As of this writing he’s backed by seven Expert journalists, two Gold Derby Editors, 11 of our Top 24 Users and nine of our All-Star Top 24. Do you agree with them that she’s now the actor to beat?

oscar predictions graph best supporting actress
oscar predictions graph best supporting actress

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