Déjà vu: For the second year in a row, North Carolina is heading for a dry Christmas

Wilting plants. Ponds drier than normal. Lawns heading into winter looking more dismal than normal. Farmers wondering what the upcoming planting season holds.

Does it feel like 2021? Well, for fans of the classic movie "Groundhog Day," it might feel that way when it comes to the weather.

For the second year in a row, almost 1.24 million North Carolinians are heading into the most wonderful time of the year facing drought. A weather phenomenon thousands of miles away in the Western Pacific that bubbles to the surface every decade or so − and then sometimes decides to linger − is likely to mean another dry winter for Tar Heel residents.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, nearly 57% of North Carolina was classified as abnormally dry or in drought as of the beginning of December. The area of most concern in Eastern North Carolina was a region encompassing the Wilmington and Jacksonville areas and extending as far south as South Carolina and north toward Pamlico Sound, which was listed as in "moderate drought."

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According to the National Weather Service in Wilmington, the Port City received just under 2 inches of rain in November. The normal amount was 3.56 inches. October was even worse, with Wilmington seeing only 0.59 inches of rain. For the year, Wilmington has recorded 39.2 inches of rain, well below the normal average of 56.6 inches.

The increased risk of forest fires is one factor associated with dry and drought conditions, which are currently impacting most of Eastern North Carolina.
The increased risk of forest fires is one factor associated with dry and drought conditions, which are currently impacting most of Eastern North Carolina.

Officials said La Nina, where cold water rises to the surface in the central Pacific Ocean and impacts weather patterns across the globe, was the driving force behind the region's continuing dry spell. Steve Pfaff, the warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service's office in Wilmington, said the La Nina conditions − like last year − would likely keep the jet stream north of the state, depriving North Carolina of moisture that it would typically bring from the eastern Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico.

That has prompted the U.S. Drought Monitor to predict that the Southeastern U.S. will probably see drier weather than normal, and moderate drought conditions, for at least the next three months.

"Part of that could certainly be La Nina at play already," said Corey Davis, North Carolina's assistant state climatologist, "but the tropics have also been a big factor in this dry fall,"

As of Tuesday much of North Carolina was classified as abnormally dry or in drought, with the southern coastal plain and far western parts of the state the driest.
As of Tuesday much of North Carolina was classified as abnormally dry or in drought, with the southern coastal plain and far western parts of the state the driest.

While most coastal residents were likely happy that North Carolina "missed" in having a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane this summer, although Ian came close and Nicole soaked the western part of the state in early November, that also meant the region missed out on the heavy rains the weather systems bring with them.

Role of climate change

While no one wants a hurricane to be your drought buster, due to the dangerous conditions that often accompany them, the region is seeing the impacts from not having a good tropical soaking. But there's also something else afoot that's impacting the dry conditions afflicting North Carolina and much of the U.S. West.

Irrigation isn't an option for many North Carolina farmers due to its high cost, although it does represent a hedge against periods of prolonged drought.
Irrigation isn't an option for many North Carolina farmers due to its high cost, although it does represent a hedge against periods of prolonged drought.

Heavy drenchings mixed with long periods of dry weather is what climatologists have predicted will be one of the impacts of a warming world tied to climate change, which is largely fueled by man's pumping of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. And the warmer the planet gets, the more severe the conditions are forecast to come.

According to the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),

But the steps required to meet that goal are drastic, expensive and sure to be controversial. In short, global emissions of greenhouse gases would have to peak by 2025 to stave off the worst impacts, which is forecast to be any warming greater than 1.5 degrees Celsius (roughly 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100. New emissions would then have to fall by up to 70% by the end of the century, along with the adoption of cutting-edge — and expensive — technology to suck the CO2 out of the atmosphere that we've already pumped into the air.

Recent reports by the IPCC and others, though, show that we're not currently on track to come even close to meeting that goal.

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Long dry spell ahead?

So with back-to-back droughts heading into the spring planting season and when water consumption increases due to higher temperatures, more irrigation and tourism ramping up, should we be worried about what 2023 might hold?

Maybe.

Davis said if you had to have a drought emerge, fall and winter would be the best time because water needs, both from humans and Mother Nature, are at their lowest. And if we get some precipitation over the next few months to help eat into the lingering rainfall deficit, we should be fine − as happened last year.

Larger portions of Eastern North Carolina are heading into their second straight winter of drought.
Larger portions of Eastern North Carolina are heading into their second straight winter of drought.

But on the flip side, recent history has shown that multi-year La Nina events and subpar hurricane seasons − at least when it comes to bringing moisture to North Carolina − can help entrench drought conditions and create real problems, as was the case from 1999 to 2002 and again from 2007 to 2009.

"I wouldn't say that's the most likely scenario for this year, but it's certainly one to be aware of, especially if we've gone through December and January without much precipitation," Davis said.

Reporter Gareth McGrath can be reached at GMcGrath@Gannett.com or @GarethMcGrathSN on Twitter. This story was produced with financial support from 1Earth Fund and the Prentice Foundation. The USA TODAY Network maintains full  editorial control of the work.

This article originally appeared on Wilmington StarNews: North Carolina re-enters drought for second straight winter