‘The Crown’: Can Elizabeth Debicki win supporting Emmy for playing Princess Diana after Emma Corrin lost in lead?

In 2021, Emma Corrin was widely expected to follow up their Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award wins for playing Princess Diana on the fourth season of Netflix’s “The Crown” with a Best Drama Actress Emmy victory. In fact, 69% of the people who predicted the race on Gold Derby thought this would be the outcome, but the trophy ultimately went to fourth-place runner Olivia Colman for her portrayal of Queen Elizabeth II on the same series. Now, Elizabeth Debicki and Imelda Staunton, who respectively replaced Corrin and Colman as their “Crown” characters, are vying for their own TV academy recognition, but will not have to face each other since Debicki is seeking the Best Drama Supporting Actress prize. It’s an interesting move, and it just might pay off.

The fifth season of “The Crown,” which takes place between 1991 and 1997, focuses heavily on how Diana and Prince Charles (Dominic West; previously Best Drama Actor winner Josh O’Connor) reached the end of their 15-year marriage and begins to explore the circumstances that led to her untimely death. The continued classification of Elizabeth and Charles as lead characters amidst Diana’s category shift makes it clear that, although the princess’ perspective is still important, the oft-conflicting ones of the monarch and her heir are the narrative’s true driving forces.

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As a potential first-time Emmy contender, Debicki has no history with the TV academy, but her character would be far from the first to be nominated as lead and then as supporting. The five previous cases all involved dramatic actresses, none of whom prevailed in either category.

Piper Laurie (“Twin Peaks”) set the precedent in 1991 by shifting after losing the previous year’s lead contest to Patricia Wettig (“Thirtysomething”), who made the opposite move after winning the 1988 supporting prize. Laurie lost on her featured bid to Madge Sinclair (“Gabriel’s Fire”).

Laurie was directly followed by Jill Eikenberry (“L. A. Law”), who, on her fourth consecutive lead outing, was also beaten by Wettig in 1990 and then came up short against Leigh Taylor-Young (“Picket Fences”) in the 1994 supporting race.

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Next came Rachel Griffiths (“Six Feet Under”), who fell to Allison Janney (lead, “The West Wing,” 2002) and Tyne Daly (supporting, “Judging Amy,” 2003).

Griffiths preceded Lorraine Bracco (“The Sopranos”), who, after her second loss to her costar Edie Falco in 2001, was beaten in supporting by Katherine Heigl (“Grey’s Anatomy”) in 2007.

The last case was a special one involving Elisabeth Moss, whose 2010 supporting nomination for “Mad Men” was sandwiched between her first two of five lead ones. She made the move after losing to Glenn Close (“Damages”) and was subsequently defeated by Archie Panjabi (“The Good Wife”).

Although Emmy voters have never honored an actor who has made a move of this kind, this case may turn out differently since they are being asked to consider the work of someone new to the role. Debicki is not her category’s frontrunner by Gold Derby’s racetrack odds, but that could actually be a good sign, just as it was for Colman. With Golden Globe and SAG Award nominations already under her belt, she’s fully in the Emmy hunt, and she more than plausibly can go all the way.

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