Cowboys have a Jaylon Smith problem that may not have answer in 2021
In a way, the Cowboys have a problem many teams would love to have. The talent level at one position is so high that there are young Pro Bowl veterans being squeezed for playing time. Each and every of the 32 franchises across the league would love to have this problem, regardless of position group.
For the Cowboys, it just so happens to be linebacker. This makes things interesting because linebacker is a position that suffers a ton of attrition, so depth is necessary as any Dallas fan can attest to being the case since Sean Lee first walked through the Valley Ranch doors. Entering the offseason, the Cowboys had two big question marks sitting atop the LB depth chart, and the one that had been traced and retraced until a hole was bore through the paper is that of Jaylon Smith.
Smith signed a contract extension following his best season, 2018. In that five-year-added-on-top-of-the-two-remaining deal he was rewarded handsomely. Unfortunately since that 2018 season where he and then-rookie Leighton Vander Esch established themselves as one of the league’s top young duos, things have tumbled downhill.
Smith deserved to make the Pro Bowl in 2018 but didn’t while Vander Esch did. Smith was named in 2019, but he was hardly a Pro Bowl caliber player beyond a large number of tackles. Like most positions, volume stats tell only a small part of the picture for players. With Smith, his shortcomings in response, pursuit, and coverage ability were coming to the forefront. His play regressed further in 2020, leading to a big offseason decision process for the front office.
Or so it seemed.
The Money Factor
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Smith's extension was written in a way that gave him $14.5 million over the $4.5 million he would have made in 2019 base salary and a second-round RFA tender in 2020. With the way the two bonuses are amortized over the length of a deal, the window for the club to get out of the contract is, for all intents and purposes, after the 2021 season. However there was a way that Dallas could have washed their hands of a bad agreement, by releasing him in the first five days of the 2021 league year, back at the start of free agency in March. If Dallas had decided to cut bait at the time, they would have carried $9.4 million in dead money across this current and the next seasons. However, they would have avoided his 2021 base salary of $7.2 million becoming guaranteed. They could have released him as a June 1 casualty, ate the $2.6 million of bonus money that would've stayed on the 2021 books and taken a cap hit of $6.8 million on the 2022 cap. Doing the math at home, yes that $7.2 million in actual cash and cap savings could've been rolled over to cover that $6.8 million hit. The Cowboys decided it was best to pay up, and although they would never admit it publicly, hope a new coaching staff would be able to reverse the step back, although it's pretty clear to most observers his decline is somewhat tied to a physical inability to do what is necessary to play the position well. While many draft and cap-minded observers preached to the fungible nature of the linebacker position and the general ease there is to pick up quality players without using high-pedigree capital, the Cowboys organization clearly does not subscribe to this theory. The Cowboys love them some highly-drafted linebackers.
The Offseason Unfolds
(AP Photo/Michael Owen Baker)
Due to that organizational directive, there was little-to-no chance the club would have rolled the dice and entered the draft with only one starting linebacker on their roster. And for that starter to be Vander Esch, whom the club was deciding on whether his injury history was even worth granting the guaranteed-money fifth-year option (which they eventually didn't grant), there was an even smaller likelihood. The club's decision not to spend big on external free agents plays a role here, too, though the most money they gave any player was former Dan Quinn draft pick Keanu Neal, who the new defensive coordinator converted to linebacker when wooing the former Falcon safety. In the front office's mind, there was no way they'd risk not having Smith on the roster heading into the draft. It was a questionable decision then, and it raises its head as training camp comes to a close and information about Smith and the team's two drafted linebackers are more concrete.
The New Guys and 2021 Training Camp
(AP Photo/LM Otero)
The excitement surrounding what first-round pick Micah Parsons is capable of is tangible. His draft status as a No. 12 overall pick is one thing, but what he's shown in his 43 preseason snaps indicates he's a star in the making. He'll certainly be tested to a far greater degree come the regular season, immediately actually when Dallas faces the high-powered attack of Tom Brady and the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1. But he's shown a ceiling that whispers team-best-defender-in-short-order. Fourth-round pick Jabril Cox somehow fell in their laps on Day 3 of the draft and he himself is showing future-starter ability. Parsons will line up with the ones on Day 1; Cox has proven to be the team's fourth-best linebacker. Ahead of Smith. Smith has looked mediocre at best through the preseason. He often looks like the slowest defender on the field. He's not, but his reaction time has not been great and even on some plays where he diagnoses correctly, he's not showing the necessary burst to make the play. There remains the possibility that Smith turns around his preseason performance and balls out come the regular season, but it would be a stark departure from the way things appear.
Options Moving Forward
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Unless the Cowboys can find a trade partner, and that would require them looking and or listening, then Smith is going to be on the team. His salary is guaranteed and they'd have to pay it all even if they released him and he signed somewhere else; assuming the new team weren't total idiots and pay him the league minimum. That would have Dallas pick up the rest of the tab. Smith is on this roster. Yet, he's clearly not as good of a linebacker as Parsons. Or Vander Esch. Or Neal. Or maybe even Cox in very short order if not already. He definitely will be able to identify things quicker than Cox, just based on experience. But again, will he be able to make the plays necessary to not be a liability? Can he do the basic requirements of the job better than a replacement level player? That answer is almost assuredly yes, but will Quinn have the autonomy to have the team's fifth-best linebacker take on the role that befits that status? While the meddling Jones front office pays him over $400,000 a game? The Cowboys should be running a base group of Parsons, Vander Esch and Neal when playing three backers, and adding Cox to the rotation for passing downs. Barring injury, Smith doesn't seem able to do what's going to be asked of that group at the same level as those four. It's hard to argue what he does better than any of the top three. When injury happens, and it's assured to happen, he'll be in the mix as a replacement, but does he tangibly give the group light-years better play than a guy like Luke Gifford, who hasn't proven anything in the league? The fact this question can even cause a millisecond of hesitation is a problem. And the problem is this problem doesn't seem to have a solution.
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