Will Country Music’s Biggest Song Be Nominated for a Best Country Song Grammy?

Leading up to the Grammy nominations on Nov. 10, Rolling Stone is breaking down 16 different categories. For each, we’re predicting the nominees, as well as who will (and who should) win on Grammy night. 

This is a moment overflowing with worthy country songs, so even though this category makes room for six nominees, there are others worth considering. Megan Moroney’s “Tennessee Orange” has to be in the conversation, according to CMT’s Leslie Fram. “I listened to all her songs and was like, ‘OK, she is a real songwriter,’ ” she says. Both Fram and SiriusXM’s Buzz Brainard say Bailey Zimmerman is a strong possibility. “This kid’s brand-new, but he’s already got an international tour booked and the album sounds good,” Brainard says. Brainard would also love to see songs off Jason Isbell’s Weathervanes contend in this category: “ ‘Cast Iron Skillet’ and ‘King of Oklahoma,’ those songs are just crazy.”

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Morgan Wallen
“Last Night”
WILL WIN
Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night” is the biggest song of the year in any genre. Full stop. Written by a quartet of songwriters, including one of Nashville’s most consistent hitmakers, Ashley Gorley, it recently earned the distinction of being the first song to be streamed on demand a billion times in a single year. That’s in addition to it setting new benchmarks on the Billboard Hot 100, where it’s spent 16 weeks at Number One. “Morgan is dominating the charts and breaking record after record after record,” Fram says. “ ‘Last Night’ is a monster.”

Jelly Roll
“Need a Favor”
SHOULD WIN
Jelly Roll parlayed a troubled life into a breakthrough country-music career, singing about his battles with addiction and his time spent in prison. Grammy voters love a redemption story, so the man born Jason DeFord could be a contender in the general field categories, like Song of the Year — expect “Need a Favor” to not just be included but to possibly win here. In a genre that likes to talk about authenticity, no artist is more real-life. “Everybody falls in love with the music, and then you meet him and you fall in love with the man,” says Brainard. “He’s like Johnny Cash.”

Ashley McBryde
“Light on in the Kitchen”
“Ashley is a can’t-miss here,” Brainard says of this ballad, written by McBryde with Connie Harrington and Jessi Alexander (two of the architects behind Lee Brice’s 2012 hit “I Drive Your Truck”). Over an easygoing melody, the lyrics celebrate home as a place where wisdom is shared, worries are assuaged, and there’s a permanent light on in the kitchen to always remind you of just that. “The simplicity of this song, I felt like I heard it before, but I didn’t hear Ashley’s version,” Brainard says, who compares it to Tim McGraw’s “Humble and Kind,” a Grammy winner in this category in 2017.

Lainey Wilson
“Watermelon Moonshine”
There’s no lack of nostalgic songs in country’s canon, but Wilson added one of the most sweetly realistic in recent memory — a tale of late-summer nights and young love fueled by illicit liquor. It owes a debt to Deana Carter’s 1996 hit “Strawberry Wine,” which Wilson admits she and co-writers Josh Kear and Jordan Schmidt referenced while writing their own trip down high school’s memory lane. Says Brainard: “When I first heard ‘Watermelon Moonshine,’ I thought of Deana’s song, which is great, because we have a new generation and now this is their song.”

Zach Bryan feat. Kacey Musgraves
“I Remember Everything”
As a country song, Bryan’s composition with Musgraves checks all the boxes: references to rotgut whiskey, a vintage Ford, and a dog. There’s also a heck of a lot of heartbreak, as the two singers assess the fallout of a busted romance. “Zach may be the hottest artist in the format right now,” says Brainard, “and him teaming with Kacey is perfect. The Grammys love her, and this is a great song: haunting and beautiful.”

Chris Stapleton
“White Horse”
Stapleton co-wrote this journey across the Wild West with Semisonic’s Dan Wilson way back in 2013 for the Johnny Depp reboot of The Lone Ranger. It didn’t make the soundtrack, but the masked cowboy’s loss has become Stapleton’s gain: “White Horse” shows off the Kentucky songwriter’s huge voice and frenetic guitar playing as he howls about “riding off into the sunset” in the chorus. “Everyone’s been waiting for new music from him,” Fram says, “and he did not disappoint with ‘White Horse.’ ”

This story is adapted from Rolling Stone’s fourth annual Grammy Preview issue, released ahead of the start of first-round voting on Oct. 13th. We featured SZA on the cover, spoke to some of the year’s biggest artists about the albums and singles that could earn them a statue come February, made our best predictions for the nominees in the top categories, and more, providing a full guide to what to watch for in the lead-up to the 2024 awards.

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