Control of Senate Remains Unknown, as All Eyes Turn to 4 Battleground Races Still Too Close to Call

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The Senate majority remains unknown the morning after the consequential 2022 midterm elections.

Heading into Election Day, experts struggled to forecast how the incoming Senate would look. There were too many variables affecting too many races — unreliable polling data, emergency lawsuits affecting mail-in ballots, and adverse weather patterns on Tuesday among them. In an evenly divided Senate, one upset could throw everything out of whack.

As election night unfolded, Republicans and Democrats alike clung to their party's seats. Hillbilly Elegy author J.D. Vance, a conservative political newcomer endorsed by Trump, defeated Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan in Ohio, where he will replace the state's outgoing GOP senator. In North Carolina, it was a similar story: Republican Rep. Ted Budd eked out a victory over prominent Democratic judge Cheri Beasley, preventing the vacating seat from flipping blue.

Up in New Hampshire, incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan successfully defended her seat — which only recently appeared vulnerable after far-right Army vet Don Bolduc saw a boost in polls.

The most monumental Senate update came in the wee hours of Wednesday morning, when the most expensive Senate race in the nation was called: Democrat John Fetterman defeated Republican TV personality Dr. Mehmet Oz. In the process, he flipped the seat blue — the first, and so far only, Senate flip of the midterm elections.

RELATED: John Fetterman's Campaign Takes Dig at Dr. Oz by Serving Crudités at Election Night Party

Four battleground races are still too close to call. To maintain control of the Senate, the Democratic Party only needs to win two. Here's where Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin currently stand.

Arizona

Rob Schumacher-Pool/Getty; Brandon Bell/Getty Mark Kelly, Blake Masters

Mark Kelly (D): 51.4%

Blake Masters (R): 46.4%

With more than two-thirds of votes reported, according to the Associated Press, incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly appears in a good place to maintain his seat against Trump-endorsed challenger Blake Masters.

Sen. Kelly, a retired astronaut and husband of former U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords, was long seen as a shoo-in — many viewed Masters, a venture capitalist, as too extreme for Arizona Republicans. But in recent weeks, Masters became a more serious contender, polling an average of only 1.5 points behind Kelly on Monday.

Senate Democrats are banking on retaining their Arizona seat, and will likely need it to keep the majority.

Georgia

Prince Williams/Wireimage; Cindy Ord/Getty Raphael Warnock, Herschel Walker

Raphael Warnock (D): 49.4%

Herschel Walker (R): 48.5%

Nearly all votes are counted in Georgia, and though Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock pulled ahead of controversial Republican Herschel Walker, the incumbent has a problem: In Georgia, you must reach at least 50% of votes to secure a win. As it stands, neither candidate appears likely to get there, as close as they may be.

If confirmed that there are not enough votes for either candidate to get a majority vote, a Dec. 6 runoff election will be called. (Sen. Warnock has been through this before; he was first elected in Jan. 2021 during a special election runoff.)

For the runoff, only the top two candidates will face off. A little-known Libertarian candidate on the ticket, Chase Oliver — who earned 2% of the overall vote — will be booted from the ticket, giving Warnock and Walker a month to woo his roughly 80,000 supporters.

It is very possible that Georgia will be the last Senate race called, and that it will be the seat determining the upper chamber's majority.

Nevada

Anna Moneymaker/Getty; Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc/Getty Catherine Cortez Masto, Adam Laxalt

Catherine Cortez Masto (D): 47.2%

Adam Laxalt (R): 49.9%

Early on in the election cycle, Catherine Cortez Masto — the first Latina elected to Senate — became a target of Republicans, who deemed her the most vulnerable Democratic senator up for reelection.

With about three-quarters of votes now counted, they appeared to be right — she trails far-right challenger Adam Laxalt by a couple of points. The race is still considered a true toss-up, with the Associated Press unwilling to say that either side has an advantage.

If Laxalt defeat Cortez Masto, it will flip Nevada's seat red — and cancel out the Pennsylvania seat that Fetterman turned blue. If Cortez Masto retains her seat, it will pose a major obstacle for Republicans' journey to the majority, and put less pressure on the Georgia runoff.

Wisconsin

STR/NurPhoto via Getty; Sara Stathas for the Washington Post/Getty Ron Johnson, Mandela Barnes

Mandela Barnes (D): 49.5%

Ron Johnson (R): 50.5%

One of the more surprising races of the night is out of Wisconsin, where Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, 35, proved more competitive than polls led people to expect. He's fighting to unseat incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, a relatively unpopular — and nationally controversial — senator buoyed more by his partisanship than personality.

Until mid-September Barnes was polling ahead of Johnson, but as time went on, GOP groups released misleading ads with racist undertones that stoked fear about Barnes' stances on crime. He then began to slip in polls, and Johnson appeared the frontrunner.

If Sen. Johnson wins reelection, it won't do much to change the political landscape, as many expected that outcome. If Barnes closes the gap in the remaining 1% of votes, though, it will effectively guarantee Democrats a majority.