How continued SAG/WGA strike might affect what we will — or won't — see at the movies this fall

Writing a fall movie preview in 2023 is like aiming at a moving target.

Since early July, when the Screen Actors Guild joined the Writers Guild of America in a strike against the studios, there’s been a question of how Hollywood can properly promote its movies.

Actors aren’t allowed to go on talk shows, podcasts or even post on social media about the films in which they star. It’s against the rules of their union, which is (rightfully) concerned about losing residuals from work that runs on streaming services.

You see, acting contracts allow performers to make money from films and shows when they are “broadcast.” But streaming doesn’t fall under that definition, so many moviemakers see nada from their work being seen on Netflix, Disney+, et al. It’s a real disparity based on legal definitions.

The studios won’t budge at the negotiation table. Some speculate their concern is that, by releasing the actual numbers, investors might realize the whole market is a house of cards. That the number of people with eyeballs on streaming content won’t justify the investment of billions of dollars into these services over the past few years.

When it comes to network and cable broadcasting as well as box-office figures, the data is independently verified. Studio honchos aren’t interested in letting the streaming numbers get much scrutiny at all. From anyone.

Even with scrutiny over traditional forms of income, there’s lots of complaints that “creative accounting” already hurts talent over studio profits.

If actors and writers wants a cut of the money made off streaming, and the studios don’t want to release the figures to make sure the money can be based on accurate information, this labor dispute could go on for a while. Some industry watchers aren’t sure what could stop the impasse other than studios individually agreeing to terms with the unions.

In fact, some small studios have already done this and that’s why you’ll see the cast of “Ferrari,” the new Michael Mann biopic of the legendary car manufacturer, doing press. At the Venice Film Festival, lead actor Adam Driver wondered why a small studio like Neon could agree to the terms of writers and actors but the big studios couldn’t. A good question indeed!

Where there seems to be wiggle room is release dates. If a star cannot promote their film, studios get antsy that awareness might not be very high among audiences for a multi-million dollar project. Warner Bros. took the first step of delaying “Dune: Part Two” — perhaps the most anticipated flick for the rest of the year — from its early November release to March 2024. Ethan Coen’s “Drive-Away Dolls” was supposed to come out in late September, but now has been moved to the doldrums of February.

Some films won’t need the extra publicity and their release dates are probably secure. Only recently it was announced that a filmed version of Taylor Swift’s “Eras” tour will be released Oct. 13. The response is predictable: ticket pre-sales went through the roof with the expectation the film will break box-office records.

Since Swift isn’t acting and her business managers are negotiating directly with the theater chains, the film is going to avoid all the stickiness associated with the strike. The stampede is so pronounced that the legacy sequel “Exorcist: Believer” moved its release up a week to avoid being “Exor-Swifted.” Folks.

Horror movies like “Believer” probably don’t need to rely on actors doing publicity. The only name you’d recognize is Ellen Burstyn reprising her role from the first film. The same is true for “Saw X” and “Five Nights at Freddy’s.” There’s a built-in audience for scary movies in the fall, and usually the audience isn’t interested in whether any stars are in the film or not.

In fact, I wonder who will see a movie about people being trapped in a haunted Chuck-E-Cheese-type establishment. Probably a lot of people on opening weekend with a big drop-off right after, if history is any indication.

Where audiences might be worried are the star-studded biopics and historical dramas we’ve been promised over the next few months. Martin Scorsese has a doozy with his adaptation of the fantastic book “Killers of the Flower Moon.” But missing the star power of Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert DeNiro and Lily Gladstone from pre-release publicity might hurt not only its financial prospects but its award considerations.

Same is true of Ridley Scott’s “Napoleon." Word is Apple+, which plans on releasing the Joaquin Phoenix-led epic around Thanksgiving, might move the film into 2024. They’ve spent a ton of money on the film — and it shows from the trailers — and don’t want to risk what they’ve put into what Scott has promised could be a 4 1/2-hour giant.

One biopic largely relying on its topic rather than its wattage is Sofia Coppola’s “Priscilla,” about the young bride of Graceland. Coppola has a lot of unknowns populating this story of a woman in close proximity to power — a favorite topic of the filmmaker — with not a lot of singing from the King. The Presley estate’s lack of involvement with the film means the soundtrack is going to be really creative. Plus, the studio releasing that film (A24) also agreed to the terms of the WGA and SAG, so it’s business as usual for them.

The strikes are important: big topics like streaming and AI are being debated and will have a huge impact on what entertainment looks like in the future. But it could be bad news for audiences who have proven they are ready to go back to the theaters after the phenomenon of “Barbieheimer.”

The question is whether we will have any movies to go and watch.

James Owen is the Tribune’s film columnist. In real life, he is a lawyer and executive director of energy policy group Renew Missouri. A graduate of Drury University and the University of Kansas, he created Filmsnobs.com, where he co-hosts a podcast. He enjoyed an extended stint as an on-air film critic for KY3, the NBC affiliate in Springfield, and now regularly guests on Columbia radio station KFRU.

This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: What movies we might — or might not — see as strike carries into fall