Can ‘The Color Purple’ get a Best Picture Oscar nom the same way ‘Women Talking’ did last year?

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Last year “Women Talking” underperformed during the awards season apart from getting a Best Picture bid at the Critics Choice Awards and an ensemble cast nom from the SAG Awards. But in the end it still managed to make the Oscar lineup for Best Picture. This year something similar has been happening with “The Color Purple.” Can it also get nominated for Best Picture with only Critics Choice and SAG noms under its belt?

Before last year’s major precursors started rolling in, many thought “Women Talking” would be a strong awards contender for Best Director (Sarah Polley), Best Supporting Actress (Jessie Buckley and/or Claire Foy) and Best Score (Hildur Guðnadóttir). Yet despite scoring six Critics Choice nominations including Best Picture, the rest of its precursor run proved disappointing.

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The movie only scored two Golden Globe noms for Best Film Screenplay and Best Score. It was completely ignored by BAFTA. Despite its SAG nomination for best ensemble, it got no individual acting bids. It also failed to make the cut at the PGA and DGA Awards. Luckily, “Women Talking” did make the Oscar lineup for Best Picture, but it had only one other bid: Best Adapted Screenplay, which it ended up winning.

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Early on this season many expected “The Color Purple” to do better than it has so far. Gold Derby users thought it would gain traction in Best Actress (Fantasia Barrino), Best Supporting Actress (Danielle Brooks and Taraji P. Henson), and multiple craft and technical categories. Like “Women Talking,” it scored six Critics Choice bids including Best Picture.

Yet it only received two Golden Globe noms for Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress (Barrino) and Best Film Supporting Actress (Brooks). “The Color Purple” did slightly better than “Women Talking” at the SAG Awards by reaping bids for its cast and supporting actress for Brooks. At BAFTA the film received two nods in Best Actress for Barrino and Best Supporting Actress for Brooks. But it too failed to make the cut at the PGA and DGA Awards (for director Blitz Bazawule).

According to Gold Derby’s current odds, “The Color Purple” is expected to receive three Oscar nominations: Best Supporting Actress (Brooks), Best Costume Design and Best Production Design. Meanwhile, the film is in 11th place with 50/1 odds for Best Picture. If it gets those other three noms as expected, would they be enough for the film to still score a spot in the top category?

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