Cillian Murphy (‘Oppenheimer’) will win at BAFTAs on his way to the Oscars

“Oppenheimer” star Cillian Murphy was once in a two-way battle with “Killers of the Flower Moon” actor Leonardo DiCaprio for the top spot in our Oscars odds chart for Best Actor this year. DiCaprio was snubbed, however, while “The Holdovers” leading man Paul Giamatti has snuck up the leaderboard. We now have another two-race horse between Murphy and Giamatti.

The Irish actor has so far only triumphed at the Golden Globes, however, where he won Best Drama Actor for Universal’s historical epic. Giamatti won Best Comedy Actor at the same ceremony and then made a huge stride towards the Oscar  podium by edging out Murphy to win Best Actor at the Critics Choice Awards. Both men are nominated at SAG, where we think Giamatti will triumph, while they are also going head to head at the BAFTAs. This is where we think Murphy can claw back some power in this race.

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Murphy and Giamatti are nominated alongside Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”), Colman Domingo (“Rustin”), Barry Keoghan (“Saltburn”), and Teo Yoo (“Past Lives”). Currently, we are predicting Murphy to win the BAFTA with Giamatti in second place. Murphy is a good bet here for multiple reasons, particularly as an Irish actor.

BAFTA love to reward British and Irish actors over American or international counterparts. Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”) beat expected Oscar champ Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) in 2021; Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”) own in 2018; Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”) won in 2015; Chiwetel Ejiofor (“12 Years a Slave”) triumphed in 2014; Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln”) emerged victorious in 2013; Colin Firth (“The King’s Speech”) won in 2011; and Firth (“A Single Man”) also won again in 2010, beating out eventual Oscar winner Jeff Bridges (“Crazy Heart”). BAFTA will always vote closer to home, which could give Murphy the edge here over American Giamatti.

Plus, we are fully expecting BAFTA to go bonkers for “Oppenheimer.” Currently, we are predicting it to win seven other races: Best Picture, Best Director for Christopher Nolan, Best Supporting Actor for Robert Downey Jr., Best Cinematography, Best Editing, Best Score, and Best Sound. It would, frankly, be strange for BAFTA to reward a film so much and not also give it a Best Actor win. Even if voters aren’t immediately swayed to vote for Murphy, which we’re sure many of them will be, a lot of them will likely tick him off anyway to go with the expected “Oppenheimer” sweep and Murphy will be taken along for the ride.

BAFTA also have a penchant for handing Best Actor to thespians portraying real people. In the last 10 years, the BAFTA Best Actor award has gone to seven performers who starred as real people in their films. These were: Ejiofor in 2014 for “12 Years a Slave,” Redmayne in 2015 for “The Theory of Everything,” DiCaprio in 2016 for “The Revenant,” Oldman in 2018 for “Darkest Hour,” Rami Malek in 2019 for “Bohemian Rhapsody,” Will Smith in 2022 for “King Richard,” and Austin Butler in 2023 for “Elvis.” Butler’s win is a good example. He won for playing Elvis Presley in an ambitious historical epic from an auteur director over eventual Oscar winner Brendan Fraser, who starred in the much quieter, more contemplative “The Whale.” Murphy beating Giamatti would be a similar pattern here.

If Murphy were to win, this would set up a grandslam finish to awards season in the Best Actor category. Murphy would have the Globe and BAFTA to his name while Giamatti would have the Globe and Critics Choice. It would be down to SAG, then, to separate the two thespians before the Academy Awards.

This would be Murphy’s first-ever BAFTA win. He was previously nominated for the Rising Star Award in 2007, losing to Eva Green. He then picked up a BAFTA TV bid in 2023 for Best Actor for “Peaky Blinders.” He lost to Ben Whishaw for “This Is Going to Hurt.”

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