Christopher Nolan (‘Oppenheimer’) way, way, way out front for Best Director at Critics Choice Awards

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Is Christopher Nolan a foregone conclusion this awards season? He won the Golden Globe for Best Film Director for “Oppenheimer,” he earned a Directors Guild nomination on January 10, the same day his film picked up four Screen Actors Guild noms, and he’s up for a Critics Choice Award for Best Director on January 14. Judging from the combined predictions of Gold Derby users, this race won’t be close at all.

As of this writing Nolan gets leading odds of 3/1, but that may not convey just how big of an advantage he truly has. He currently gets unanimous support from all 10 Expert journalists currently making their forecasts, all 11 of Gold Derby’s Editors and all of our All-Star Top 24. Our Top 24 Users aren’t quite unanimous, but they’re close: 22 of them say he’ll take this prize, with the last two going out on a limb for Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”). That doesn’t make this a wide open race by any means, but the door is slightly ajar.

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What’s interesting is that “Oppenheimer” looks like a bigger lock for Best Director than it is for Best Picture. The movie gets best odds in that category too, but its challengers look stronger. For instance, one Expert is betting on nominations leader “Barbie” to upset, and one favors “Killers of the Flower Moon.” “Barbie” is also backed by six Top Users and six All-Stars. “Flower Moon” is predicted by two Top Users and one All-Star. And the satirical comedy “American Fiction” is also predicted to win by two Top Users. So what makes Nolan an even safer bet than the film he directed?

Well, he’s got an IOU at virtually every event he’s competing at. His Golden Globe win was the first of his career. And though two of his films won Critics Choice Awards for Best Action Film (“The Dark Knight” and “Inception”), those may be cold comfort compared to Best Director, for which he’s been nominated four times now without a win. This may all be leading up to the Oscars where he’s the favorite to prevail once and for all after five nominations and five losses from the motion picture academy.

It’s reminiscent of other races in recent years where an overdue director has swept the season: consider Guillermo Del Toro (“The Shape of Water”) and Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”). In Campion’s case, she ended up winning the Oscar despite no other wins for her movie. So if Nolan is on a similar path, he may be undeniable.

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