Chances more likely a tropical storm will soon form in the Gulf. Here’s the forecast.

The likelihood is growing that a low-pressure area producing thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche will form into a tropical storm later this week.

The National Hurricane Center has upped the chances of a tropical depression over the next five days from an initial 20% to 60% on Monday morning. This would be the first tropical depression in the Gulf this hurricane season, which is expected to be more active than normal.

“The area of potential development in the Bay of Campeche will slowly move northward over waters in the western Gulf of Mexico that are 3 degrees above average for this time of year,” Gulf meteorologist Rocco Calaci says in a Monday morning update.

“This will accelerate development of this system into a tropical depression (minimum) or perhaps a moderate tropical storm.”

One hurricane model, the ECMWF, shows landfall Saturday morning in Beaumont, Texas, Calaci says. A second model, the GFS, puts landfall for a tropical storm south of Jennings Louisiana around 1 a.m. Saturday.

“Of course, as we know from years of experience, the models are constantly changing, and we should expect to see tweaks in the movement, intensity, and projected landfall area over the next 72 hours,” Calaci’s says in his update.

“To summarize, the western Gulf of Mexico should expect to have strong tropical development over the next few days. The NHC is expecting a tropical depression, but I believe a moderate tropical storm is also a likely scenario from Beaumont Texas to southern Louisiana.”

East Louisiana, Mississippi and Mississippi Coast residents can expect heavy rain from this system beginning late Friday through most of Saturday, he said, with models projecting 6 inches to 12 inches.

The NHC is currently watching a total of three potential tropical storms, but the other two are not expected to threaten the U.S. mainland.

• A low pressure system southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, became a tropical depression Monday morning, but it is forecast to dissipate in about 48 hours near Newfoundland as a larger extratropical low absorbs the disturbance.
  
  

• A strong tropical wave off the coast of West Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, the NHC says, but dry air and upper-level winds should limit chances of formation later this week in the central tropical Atlantic.

The next two named storms will be Bill and Claudette.