Box office preview: Will Timothee Chalamet’s ‘Wonka’ be a much-needed holiday treat after a slower month?

Edward Douglas
·5 min read

After two weeks with no major studio releases, we get another weekend with just a single new wide release, though it should be one of the bigger holiday movies. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.

What’s interesting about the three releases we’re covering in today’s weekend preview is that all three of them received mentions at the Golden Globes nominations on Monday.

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The widest release into over 4,000 theaters is Warner Bros’ musical prequel “Wonka,” telling the origin story of chocolatier Willy Wonka, as played by Timothée Chalamet. The character was introduced in Roald Baum‘s 1964 children’s book “Charlie and the Chocolate Factory,” but was made famous when played by Gene Wilder in the 1971 film “Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory.” Directed by Paul King (“Paddington”), this new take on the character, his origin story, co-stars Oscar winner Olivia Colman, Hugh Grant, Keegan Michael-Key, Sally Hawkins, Roland Atkinson and Calah Lane.

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In 2005, director Tim Burton and his regular collaborator Johnny Depp revived Baum’s novel for a studio movie that opened with $56.2 million at the height of Depp’s “Pirates of the Caribbean” stardom and grossed $206.5 million in North America and $475.8 million worldwide. It’s unclear whether “Wonka” is meant to be a prequel to that movie or to the Wilder one, but like the Wilder one, this is a straight-up musical, which should also prove to be an asset.

Although Chalamet has been in a few bigger studio films like “Dune” in 2021, “Wonka” is going to be a real test for his star power vs. smaller films like last year’s “Bones and All,” which re-teamed him with Luca Guadagnino, director of Chalamet’s breakout “Call Me By Your Name.” Chalamet has quite a devoted younger fanbase, which is why he was booked to host “Saturday Night Live” as soon as the SAG-AFTRA strike looked like it was coming to an end.

Despite there being initial negative reactions to the early trailers, “Wonka” has received strongly positive reviews, currently at 84% on Rotten Tomatoes. Warners also gave “Wonka” an early release into international territories this past weekend where it grossed $43.2 million in 37 territories including the UK ($11.1 million), Mexico ($5.2 million) and others. It opened at #1 in most of those regions.

“Wonka” is a new PG-rated family-friendly movie during a time of year when those can do particularly well, even if there’s plenty of competition such as “Trolls Band Together” and Disney’s “Wish,” both which will begin losing theaters this weekend and next.

One drawback for “Wonka” is that the weeks just before Christmas tend to be tough at the box office, because people are finishing up school and work, saving up money for holiday gifts or doing their holiday shopping. Very few movies, other than recent “Star Wars” films, “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” and James Cameron‘s anticipated sequel “Avatar: Way of the Water,” have opened huge. “Wonka” very much seems like a word-of-mouth movie, so it might open with $35 to 45 million, but then do most of its business in the week following Christmas, even with a lot more competition hitting theaters next week.

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Opening in limited release on Friday is Cord Jefferson‘s critically acclaimed “American Fiction,” starring Jeffrey Wright as an author frustrated by his treatment as a “Black author,” who creates an alter ego who writes a novel that becomes a hot property. The movie is social satire mixed with a family drama that co-stars Sterling K. Brown and Tracee Ellis Ross.

Critics have been all over this movie since it debuted at the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF), racking up 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and receiving the coveted People’s Choice Award, which has gone to quite a few Oscar Best Picture nominees and winners. After receiving two Golden Globe nominations, MGM’s Orion Pictures plans on releasing it in select cities this Friday and then expanding it to further cities on December 22 before expanding nationwide sometime in January.

If it isn’t obvious how fully we’re into awards season, Jonathan Glazer‘s critically acclaimed Holocaust film “The Zone of Interest” will also be released by A24 into select theaters this Friday. Starring Christian Friedel as a Nazi commandment living next door to Auschwitz concentration camp with his wife, played by Sandra Huller, who just received her own Golden Globe nomination for “Anatomy of a Fall.”

The British Glazer established himself with films such as “Sexy Beast,” “Under the Skin” and “Birth,” all very different from his newest film, which won four awards at the Cannes Film Festival when it premiered there in May. It also has a 92% score on Rotten Tomatoes, so it clearly has critical backing as well. There’s no word on A24’s expansion plans, but it’s probably a safe bet it will be based on any further awards, having just received top honors from the L.A. Film Critics Association (LAFCA) and also receiving a number of Golden Globe nominations this week. The movie that beat “Zone of Interest” for the Palme D’or at Cannes was “Anatomy of a Fall,” which has grossed $3.6 domestically since opening in mid-October.

Check back on Sunday to see if “Wonka” delivers the type of opening that will turn it into one of the holiday’s bigger hits.

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