Box office preview: ‘Super Mario Bros.’ will continue to dominate over new wide releases, including Nicolas Cage’s ‘Renfield’

Edward Douglas
Updated ·5 min read
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With “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” exceeding all expectations over Easter weekend, it’s likely to be the #1 movie this weekend and maybe one or two more after that. Undaunted, four studios studios are releasing movies that will try to bring in business despite the overwhelming success and popularity of Universal’s animated movie.

In fact, Universal will be making a play for the top two spots this weekend with its latest horror-comedy “Renfield,” which comes from “The Walking Dead” creator Robert Kirkman‘s Skybound Entertainment with Chris McKay (“The LEGO Batman Movie”) at the helm. It stars Nicholas Hoult (“The Favourite”) as the title character, henchman to the legendary vampire Count Dracula, as played by Nicolas Cage. Akwafina, Ben Schwartz and Oscar nominee Shohreh Aghdashloo all have key roles, as well.

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Although Hoult has been acting since appearing in the movie based on Nick Hornby‘s “About A Boy,” and has since starred in big Oscar-winning movies like George MIller‘s “Mad Max: Fury Road,” he’s still a bit of an unknown quantity compared to his costars Cage and Awkwafina. Cage’s last wide release was 2022’s “The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent,” co-starring Pedro Pascal, which only opened with $7.1 million and topped out at $20 million. Although Awkwafina has been doing a lot of voice work for animated movies, she also had a key role in Marvel’s “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” which opened with $94.7 million over Labor Day weekend in 2021.

The gory R-rated movie premiered at the Overlook Film Festival in New Orleans (where the film was shot) at the end of March. So far, reviews seem to generally be positive, and there’s quite a bit going for the movie, but mainly it’s all about Cage playing a vampire (and quite a famous one) for the first time since 1988’s “Vampire’s Kiss.”

Of all the movies being released this weekend, “Renfield” seems to have the best marketing plan, even if it’s as simple as advertising on the TSA trays at LAX (it’s true!), and this should definitely appeal to younger horror fans than the weekend’s other horror offerings. Although this might not have quite the appeal of the R-rated “Cocaine Bear” or “M3GAN” from earlier this year (both Universal), this will do its best to open close to $20 million, though it might fall just short, opening in the high teens.

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Despite opening in over 3,000 theaters, Sony’s horror-thriller “The Pope’s Exorcist,” starring Russell Crowe, may suffer from being a genre movie being released against “Renfield,” similar to how the studio released “65” against “Scream VI” back in March. That sci-fi thriller starring Adam Driver, had more going for it with its promise of dinosaurs, so it opened with $12.3 million, while “Pope’s Exorcist” is mainly relying on whatever Crowe brings to the table in a horror sub-genre that’s generally been overdone in recent years.

The exorcism/possession sub-genre of horror has done quite well in the past with hits like “The Exorcism of Emily Rose,” the theatrical feature debut of Scott Derrickson (“Doctor Strange”), and 2021’s “The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It,” which opened with $24.1 million despite an early summer 2021 release. Then again, last year’s “Prey for the Devil,” which received a plum Halloween release only opened with $7.1 million and tapped out at $18.8 million.

If you’ve been paying attention, this means we get two horror films with fairly well-known formerly A-list actors hoping to turn things around, although “Renfield” has generally done a better job selling itself. Because of that, I’ll be shocked If “The Pope’s Exorcist” can even open with $10 million, though it will be vying for fourth place against “Air” and other returning movies.

Over the past few years, Crunchyroll has essentially cornered the market on theatrical anime releases. Its new release “Suzume” is the latest from beloved animation filmmaker Makoto Shinkai, who previously made “Your Name.” and “Weathering with You.” With strong reviews so far, Crunchyroll is releasing this into 2,150 theaters, including any IMAX screens it can steal away from “Super Mario Bros.” It being the first movie from Shinkai in four years should help the movie open in the $13 to 15 million range, enough for a strong third place after “Renfield.”

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Offering some counter-programming for women is the indie comedy “Mafia Momma,” starring (and produced by) Toni Collette (“Knives Out”) as a working mother brought to Italy to take over the family business from her dead grandfather. As she learns from his former “secretary,” played by Monica Belluci, that family business is running one of Italy’s mob families. Directed by Catherine Hardwicke, this is being given a wide release by Bleecker Street, probably into roughly 1,000 theaters but not much more, and depending on that theater count, it should be able to sneak into the top 10 ala “Paint” last weekend.

Also, Briarcliff is releasing the sports drama “Sweetwater” moderately wide, which tells the story of basketball Hall of Famer Nat “Sweetwater” Clifton, who became the first African-American to be signed to the NBA. With a cast that includes Cary Elwes, Richard Dreyfuss, Eric Roberts, Jeremy Piven and Kevin Pollak, this doesn’t have an estimated theater count yet, but I’m dubious that this will get into the top 10 with such a low-profile release.

If that wasn’t enough movies for ya, indie horror “Nefarious” from filmmakers Chuck Konzelman and Cary Solomon will also get a moderately wide release this weekend, but with nowhere near the marketing budget of the other two new horror movies, this might also struggle to get into the Top 10 this weekend.

Check back on Sunday to see how all the new movies did against “Mario Bros.”

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