Box office preview: ‘The Nun II’ and ‘My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3’ try to keep ‘Sequel September’ going
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“Sequel September” enters its second weekend with more studios hoping that nostalgia will rule out for moviegoers. This week welcomes “The Nun II” and “My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3” to theaters, and we’re predicting they could have very different results. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.
The return of Denzel Washington for “The Equalizer 3” did so well over Labor Day weekend that studios should be thrilled with their decision to just release sequel after sequel this month, the next one up being “The Nun II.” It’s a sequel to the spin-off from “The Conjuring” that opened on this weekend in 2018 to $53.8 million, the biggest opening for the franchise that’s been dubbed “The Conjuring-verse.”
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Horror movies might not have the need for big name stars as other movie genres, but “The Nun II” brings back Taissa Farmiga (younger sister of Vera Farmiga, star of “The Conjuring” movies) as Sister Irene, joined by Storm Reid (“Missing”) as another nun. Neither of them are the nun in the title, as that would be the demonic Valak, played by Bonnie Abrams, first introduced in “The Conjuring 2.” Directed by Michael Chaves (“The Curse of La Llorona,” “The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It”), this prequel is a period piece set in 1956 France with Irene investigating the death of a priest.
SEEBox office: ‘The Equalizer 3’ wins Labor Day with ease, ‘Barbie’ crosses $600 million domestically
“The Conjuring-verse” has been quite profitable for Warner Bros.’ genre subsidiary New Line going back 10 years to the James Wan-directed “The Conjuring,” which opened with $41.9 million and making $316.8 million globally. That was followed in 2014 with the semi-successful spin-off “Annabelle,” which has become a trilogy unto its own, grossing $274 million over three movies just in North America.
Although the hugely successful “The Nun” grossed $363 million worldwide, the best showing for this franchise, the two installments that followed didn’t fare as well in 2019. 2021’s “The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It” was hindered by being released mid-pandemic with a day-and-date release on HBO Max. “The Nun II” should be able to avoid the latter problem, although it’s hard to deny that having five years between installments could lessen the interest in following the story. (The original “Nun” also received horrid reviews, and a “C” CinemaScore, which often means certain death for a sequel.)
While another $50 million plus opening would be fantastic for “The Nun II,” it seems more likely to end up somewhere in the $30 to 35 million range, though not much higher, as the franchise seems to have grown somewhat stale, and we will not be seeing reviews for this one until sometime Thursday. If “The Nun II” does exceed expectations, then maybe New Line will continue the franchise, although producer Wan’s semi-recent first look deal with Universal and Blumhouse might mean he is less involved.
SEE Grab the popcorn and sound off in our movie forums
Nia Vardalos returns with “My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3,” the second sequel to the breakout indie hit of 2002, which Focus Features is releasing into over 3,200 theaters, having inherited this threequel from big brother Universal, similar to last year’s “Downton Abbey: A New Era.” Many of the characters from the previous two movies are back, as the Portokalos travels to Greece for a family reunion seven years after “My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2.” Vardalos wrote, directed and stars in this one, having made her directorial debut with 2009’s “I Hate Valentine’s Day.” She’s once again joined by love interest John Corbett and characters played by Andrea Martin and Joey Fatone – yes, the guy from NSYNC has been a regular going all the way back to the 2002 movie, believe it or not.
Although it’s been over 20 years since the original movie became an indie sensation unlike anything we’ve seen since, the amount of time since the beloved movie, and the general innui towards the sequel – it actually got an A- CinemaScore, which isn’t so bad – might make some question the decision to make a third movie. Although the original opened with a fairly low-key release into 100 or so theaters in April 2002, word-of-mouth helped it go wider and wider right through the summer, peaking in 2,000 theaters in October, at which point, it had already made $169 million. Ultimately, it would gross $241.4 million in North America, finally exiting theaters nearly a year after its initial release.
The 2016 sequel “My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2” opened with just $17.9 million and grossed less than $100 million worldwide, about $59.7 million of that from North America. The third movie could open with less than $10 million (or less!) this weekend, based on that track record.
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Yash Raj Films continues to make inroads into getting Bollywood (or Tollywood, if you will) out to the North American masses with the Telugu-language action flick “Jawan,” starring Bollywood superstar Shah Rukh Khan, who last appeared in “Pathaan,” which opened with $6.9 million back in January and grossed $17.5 million just in North America. There’s been quite a bit of excitement about “Jawan” with a good amount of advance pre-sales, but this will open on Thursday, which might limit its weekend take.
“Pathaan” actually opened on Wednesday and made $2.6 million in its first two days in just 650 theaters, beating James Cameron‘s “Avatar: The Way of Water” in its very first day. Presumably, Khan’s star power and anticipation for this follow-up should allow “Jawan” to make between $5 and 7 million in its debut weekend as well.
“Barbie” is now in an interesting situation, where there are so many other new movies, and with the VOD release announced for Sept. 12 that even with a relatively innocuous 45% drop, it could end up in fifth place, especially if “My Big Fat Greek Wedding” or “Jawan” over perform.
Check back on Sunday to see how the above fared with the note that the box office report may be later than usual due to other obligations.
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