Box office preview: Matthew Vaughn’s star-studded ‘Argylle’ competes against ‘The Chosen’ season 4
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If you’ve read this month’s preview earlier this week, you already know there are two very different wide releases this weekend. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.
First up, there’s the new Matthew Vaughn spy action-comedy “Argylle,” based on a recently released book by one Elly Conway, presumed to be a pseudonym for another famous author, who sold the rights to Vaughn to make this movie even before the book’s release just a few weeks back.
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Going by the trailer, there’s a bit of a mystery in the book and movie surrounding the identity of the film’s titular secret agent, but Vaughn has another stacked cast, including Bryce Dallas Howard as “Conway” with Henry Cavill playing “Argylle,” and the likes of Sam Rockwell, Bryan Cranston, Samuel L. Jackson, Catherine O’Hara, John Cena, Sofia Boutella and even pop star Dua Lipa. The great thing about having such an expansive cast is that it literally has someone to appeal to everyone even remotely interested in Vaughn’s latest action-comedy. It also provides lots of actors that can do the talk show rounds to promote the movie.
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This is the latest film from Apple Studios, teaming up with Universal Pictures for its nationwide theatrical release. On the surface, it’s in a similar vein as Vaughn’s 2014 film, “Kingsman: The Secret Service,” based on the comics by Mark Millar and Dave Gibbons. The first of those movies, starring Colin Firth and Taron Egerton, opened in February 2015 with $36.2 million and grossed $404 million worldwide, leading to the 2017 sequel, “Kingsman: The Golden Circle,” which performed similarly. The prequel “The King’s Man” opened over the holidays in 2021 and was clearly hurt by the ongoing COVID pandemic.
On the surface, “Argylle” offers a similarly edgy sense of humor as well as action that could appeal more toward the same guys who have helped make Jason Statham‘s “The Beekeeper” a recent hit – expect that to be hurt the worst by this movie’s presence – but it’s a very different movie that might rely on reviews – which so far, have not been good – and word-of-mouth for any long-term box office, especially since there are many twists in the story.
Although it might be tough or impossible for “Argylle” to open with the $35 million plus of “Kingsman,” it should be able to make $22 to 23 million or more this coming weekend, with so little direct competition and no new movies for two weeks. It will win the weekend with relative ease.
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Angel Studios, who has had huge success with its faith-based releases like last year’s “Sound of Freedom,” which grossed $184.2 million domestically, returns to one of is early successes, which was releasing the streaming series “The Chosen” into theaters. Over the course of February, Angel will release Season 4 of “The Chosen” in three installments, with Episodes 1 through 3 opening in theaters starting Thursday in an unknown number of theaters.
It’s often hard to judge how these faith-based movies might fare, especially in such a unique case like this one, where an entire season of a series will hit theaters first. In theory, this experiment could lead to diminishing returns as the month proceeds, since some might eventually be fine watching the series on the CW, but this installment at least should be able to make $6 or 7 million, including Thursday. We’ll discuss the other two installments, which will be released on Feb. 15 and Feb. 29, when the time comes.
The new movies are likely to create a logjam in third through seventh place with some movies being affected more than others, and some of the holiday releases may lose more theaters to make room for the new ones.
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Two countries’ Oscar submissions will get limited releases this weekend, including Bhutan’s “The Monk and the Gun,” directed by Pawo Choyning Dorji of the previously-nominated “Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom,” and Nicolaj Arcel‘s “The Promised Land,” starring Mads Mikkelsen, the two of them having previously gotten into the Oscar nominations with Denmark’s “A Royal Affair” in 2012. (Mikkelsen’s performance in “Another Round” helped that movie win the International Feature Oscar in 2020 for Denmark.)
Other limited releases this weekend, include Molly Manning Walker‘s BAFTA-nominated “How to Have Sex,” starring Mia McKenna-Bruce, and Leah McKendrick‘s “Scrambled” with Yvonne Strahovski, the former benefitting from it screening at festivals like Toronto and Sundance (plus having such an informative title).
Check back on Sunday for the lowdown on how the box office is affected by having new wide releases.
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