Box office preview: Can ‘The Marvels’ avoid the superhero fatigue that’s permeated 2023?

Edward Douglas
·5 min read
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For 15 years, a new Marvel Studios movie would be something to celebrate, but this weekend, we might see the sure-fire hitmaker (and superhero movies in general) be given the ultimate test. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.

Oscar-winning actor Brie Larson is back as Carol Danvers aka Captain Marvel in “The Marvels,” over four years since the character was first introduced in Marvel Studios’ “Captain Marvel” in March 2019. That movie opened with $153 million domestically, ended up making $426.8 million in North America and then another $702 million overseas for a global total of $1.1 billion. That sort of performance almost guarantees a sequel, but Captain Marvel instead became a key component of “Avengers: Endgame.”

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Danvers finally gets her solo sequel in this movie directed by Nia DaCosta (“Candyman”) which reunites Danvers with Samuel L. Jackson‘s Nick Fury, and brings Iman Vellani‘s popular Kamala Khan aka Ms. Marvel fully into the cinematic universe with Teyonah Parris playing the grown-up Monica Rambeau, who also appeared in on the Disney+ “Wandavision,” where she got her own powers. All of these factors should be a big deal, on top of DaCosta being the first Black woman to direct a Marvel movie and so much focus being put on women of color around Carol Danvers.

The villain for this movie is Dar-Benn, as played by Zawe Ashton, who happens to be the partner of Tom Hiddleston aka the MCU’s Loki, and honestly, even with my vast knowledge of Marvel lore, I have never heard of Dar-Benn. So that might one problem right there when you have a superhero movie where the villain just isn’t as strong or known as other recent Marvel movies.

The question is why does everyone seem to be so down on “The Marvels”? Why are ticket pre-sales so low compared to other MCU movies, and why is the movie tracking so poorly? Some point to the first trailer for the movie, which wasn’t great and was very jokey, but surely, there must be some level of curiosity from those who liked or loved “Captain Marvel,” which got an “A” CinemaScore and received generally positive reviews with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes. Reactions for “The Marvels” hit on Tuesday night, but reviews won’t be out there until Wednesday afternoon.

Considering the overall success of “Captain Marvel,” “The Marvels” should really be opening in the $100 to 125 million range domestically, but as of now, it’s looking more likely to be in the $65 to 75 million range of movies, on par with Dwayne Johnson‘s “Black Adam,” and others. Not helping matters will be the fact that the movie won’t have Larson and others in the cast out there doing press and talk shows either due to the ongoing actors’ strike. How well or poorly “The Marvels” does this weekend might get people wondering whether superhero movies have run their course with “Eternals” and “Shang-Chi” being the last two MCU movies to open under $100 million, and that was partially due to the pandemic.

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Offered as counter-programming is the Sony Pictures/Affirm Films biblical musical, “Journey to Bethlehem,” which will try to get an early start on the holidays by taking the faith-based approach that has worked so well with other films. That said, I know next to nothing about this movie, including how wide it will be going or whether anyone even knows about the movie’s existence. Oddly, it stars Oscar nominee Antonio Banderas as King Herod, but he’s the only known name. Because of this, I’d hesitate to predict this to open with more than $7 million this weekend, probably shooting for fourth place, at best.

Yash Raj Films will open the Bollywood action film, “Tiger 3,” in roughly 600 theaters on Saturday, just ahead of Diwale, the Hindu Festival of Lights. Starring Bollywood superstar Salman Khan, it will be interesting to see how it fares with only two days of box office against the other movies that will have all day Friday and much of Thursday included in their weekend numbers. Still, we could see it opening with $4 to 5 million or even more based on Khan’s popularity both in India and here in the States.

Also expanding nationwide into an unknown number of theaters is Alexander Payne‘s “The Holdovers,” starring Paul Giamatti, which has received almost overwhelming positive reviews and reactions since it debuted at the Telluride Film Festival in September. In the movie, Giamatti plays a curmudgeon professor at a private school, forced to stay over the holidays for a student (Dominic Sessa) who has nowhere else to go. Also starring Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“My Name is Dolemite”), the movie will be Payne’s reentry to the Oscars with a number of nominations, including one for its Original Screenplay by David Hemingson. Early buzz from festivals and its limited release should help it make somewhere in the $4 to 5 million range this weekend, making a play for the top five.

Opening in limited release, Nicolas Cage stars in A24’s “Dream Scenario,” written and directed by Norwegian filmmaker ​​Kristoffer Borgli, which has Cage playing a science teacher who suddenly starts appearing in random people’s dreams, including his students. A typically oddball comedy from the studio who has become known for such things will probably open more limited this weekend.

This will be a particularly interesting weekend to watch at the box office, so check back on Sunday to see how the above fared.

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