Box office preview: ‘Madame Web’ takes on ‘Bob Marley’ on the extended Presidents Day weekend

Edward Douglas
·5 min read
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Wednesday is Valentine’s Day, and then next Monday is Presidents Day, and two wide releases will vie for the top spot, though it might be a close race to see which fares better. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.

This is a tough weekend since each of the new releases has their own strengths but also more than a few weaknesses, and we also can’t ignore the fact that the box office has not been doing great for most of the 2024 calendar year so far.

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The widest release into roughly 4,000 theaters is Sony’s “Madame Web,” a spin-off character from the Spider-Man comics with Dakota Johnson playing the title character, Cassie Web. She’s a paramedic with precognitive powers that uses them to protect a trio of young women — played by Sydney Sweeney (“Anyone But You”), Celeste O’Connor (“Ghostbusters: Afterlife”) and Isabela Merced (“Dora the Explorer”) — from the evil Ezekiel, as played by Tahar Rahim from “A Prophet.”

Directed by SJ Clarkson, who helmed episodes of Marvel series “Jessica Jones” and “The Defenders,” “Madame Web” is getting the widest release of any movie this year with Johnson coming off her relatively successful hosting gig on “Saturday Night Live” a few weeks back.

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“Madame Web” is following a number of other “Spider-Man” spin-off movies, the most recent being 2022’s “Morbius,” which opened with $39 million but then quickly lost its business to end up with just $73.9 million domestic and $162.8 million worldwide. Although both “Venom” movies, starring Tom Hardy, did quite well, the first one opening with $80 million and its 2021 sequel opening with $90 million, Venom is just a much better-known character with many of his own solo comics, which is not the case with Madame Web.

Probably a better comparison for this one is 2020’s “Birds of Prey,” which benefited from the popularity of Margot Robbie‘s Harley Quinn front and center to open with $33 million on February 7, 2020, though it was soon sidelined by a global pandemic that kept it from making much more than $200 million worldwide. And that was well before the recent downturn in the superhero genre, too.

Early word is that reviews will be very bad, because film critics seem to be on the warpath this year, at least until they finally get a chance to watch Denis Villeneuve‘s “Dune Part 2.” But “Madame Web” is trying to appeal more toward younger women with its cast (including super-hot Sweeney, whose popularity has grown thanks to her hit rom-com “Anyone But You”), similar to “Birds of Prey.”

There certainly will be some curiosity even with (or possibly due to) the bad reviews, but with superhero movies taking quite a tumble, it’s hard to imagine this one opening with more than $30 million in its first six days from Wednesday through Presidents Day on Monday, and it might have a hard time making more than $25 million over the four-day weekend.

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Also opening on Wednesday is the Paramount Pictures biopic “Bob Marley: One Love,” starring Kingsley Ben-Adir as the Jamaican reggae superstar who had such a big impact both at home and abroad, especially during the turbulent ‘70s. Lashana Lynch of “Captain Marvel” and “No Time to Die” plays his wife, the equally loved Rita Marley, and it’s directed by Reinaldo Marcus Green (“King Richard”).

The movie follows along a similar path as other recent musical biopics, such as “Whitney Houston: I Want to Dance with Somebody,” the Elton John movie “Rocketman,” and the Oscar-winning “Bohemian Rhapsody,” which was the most successful of these efforts. “Bohemian Rhapsody” opened with $51 million, made $216 million domestically and $879 million worldwide, compared to “Rocketman,” which opened with half that amount and made less than $100 million both domestically and another $100 million overseas. Surprisingly, the Whitney Houston biopic was a bomb, making only $59 million worldwide over the holidays in 2022 despite the popularity of the singer and her music.

“Bob Marley” has already received some pretty mixed reviews with just 35% on Rotten Tomatoes, and one wonders whether that might dissuade some of Marley’s fans from seeing the movie, particularly in the United States. The movie opens on Wednesday and should have its business spread out over its first six days, but tracking suggests that it could also make around $30 million in its first six days, and if it can beat “Madame Web,” it will probably be seen as a coup, considering the diminishing returns seen by the biopic genre, other than last year’s “Oppenheimer.”

A few weeks back, Angel Studios released the first three episodes of “The Chosen” Season 4, which has grossed over $12.5 million domestically so far after opening with $7.4 million in its first four days. On Thursday, they’ll release the next three episodes of the season into a similar number of theaters and with the added Presidents Day holiday, it probably can do roughly the same amount, maybe a little bit more, vying for third place.

IFC Films plans to expand France’s Oscar selection, the Tran Anh Hung-directed “The Taste of Things,” starring Juliette Binoche, nationwide on Valentine’s Day, although with no reported theater count, as of now.

Cohen Media Group will release the Italian Oscar nominee, “Io Capitano,” from filmmaker Matteo Garrone, into select cities this weekend, and also, Sony Classics is re-releasing Jean  Jeunet‘s popular romantic-comedy, “Amelie,” starring a very young Audrey Tautou, into an unknown number of theaters.

Check back on Sunday to see how all the movies above do.

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