Box office preview: ‘Kung Fu Panda 4’ will try to take down ‘Dune: Part Two’

Edward Douglas
·6 min read
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

After one of the biggest opening weekends of 2024 (by far), things normally might settle down, but DreamWorks Animation is releasing one of the first family animated movies since December, and it’s one that can help the box office recover. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.

Offering “Dune: Part Two” some hearty competition and counter-programming this weekend is the first family animated feature in months, as DreamWorks Animation’s “Kung Fu Panda 4” arrives in over 3,900 theaters nationwide. Once again starring Jack Black as Po, the martial arts savvy panda bear, he’s joined in this one by the ubiquitous Awkwafina – when was the last time there was an animated movie in which she didn’t provide a voice? –as a thieving fox. Viola Davis voices the primary villain, the evil sorceress chameleon, plus there are new characters voiced by Oscar winner Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) and comedian Ronny Chieng. Previous characters voiced by Dustin Hoffman, James Hong, Bryan Cranston, and Ian McShane are also back.

More from GoldDerby

Black first voiced Po in the original 2008 “Kung Fu Panda,” nearly 16 years ago, released at the height of the DreamWorks Animation boom under Jeffrey Katzenberg with a $60 million summer opening on its way to $215 million domestic and $631 million worldwide. By 2016, the third movie, which opened in late January, opened with just $41 million and only made $143 million domestically.

The problem with any sequel – and “Kung Fu Panda 4” is no exception – is that the further you get into a franchise, the harder it is to keep people interested. DreamWorks Animation’s “Shrek” was the studio’s previous franchise to run for four installments, and by the time it got to its own fourth movie, “Shrek Forever After” in 2010, American moviegoers weren’t as invested, going by its $70.8 million opening, which was $50 million less than the third movie.

SEE 2023 box office hits: Every movie that made more than $100 million

It also won’t help that since COVID, animation is seen more as something families can watch at home on streaming, rather than spending bucketloads of money to take the whole family to the movie theater. Bearing in mind that “Kung Fu Panda 4” is the fourth installment and that it’s been eight years since the previous movie – the previous three movies have been readily available to watch via streaming – there’s a chance that no one other than small kids will be interested.

Still, the lack of family fare has greatly helped Universal’s “Migration,” and that should also help “Kung Fu Panda 4” as it vies for an opening somewhere north of $40 million, which will put it neck and neck with “Dune: Part Two” in its second weekend. It could be a tight race to call, but “Kung Fu Panda 4” should be able to do enough business over the weekend to best “Dune.”

On top of that, Lionsgate is releasing the latest Blumhouse high-concept horror film “Imaginary,” starring DeWanda Wise as a woman who returns to her childhood home with her new family, only for her stepdaughter (Pyper Braun) to make a new imaginary friend who might have malevolent intentions. Directed by Jeff Wadlow (“Fantasy Island,” “Truth or Dare”), the PG-13 horror will be trying to bring in the teen and older kids who might not be interested in the latest “Kung Fu Panda” movie, although to be fair, the fans of the earlier movies in that animated franchise would indeed be teenagers now.

Wadlow’s “Truth or Dare” opened with $18.7 million in April 2018 and went on to make $95 million worldwide, but never got a sequel. A more recent PG-13 horror film was Blumhouse’s “Night Swim,” which only opened with $11.8 million on its way to $32.3 million domestic – it didn’t even make $20 million overseas. That doesn’t necessarily show that there’s any sort of weariness towards horror, just that it was the wrong time for that particular movie.

“Imaginary’s” high concept premise will certainly make it easier to sell to teen and twenty-something audiences, as will the scares promised from the trailer, but it doesn’t feel like Lionsgate has quite the marketing clout as Blumhouse’s normal home at Universal, which has the added benefit of many television and cable networks for advertising synergy. It’s not likely to be one of the bigger horror hits, probably opening somewhere between $10 and $14 million to take third place.

Angel Studios releases “Cabrini,” a new biopic about America’s first woman saint, Mother Frances Cabrini, who came to New York’s crime-ridden Five Points in the 19th Century to start an orphanage for all the impoverished immigrant kids. She ended up becoming pivotal to the way that Italian-Americans would become such an important part not only in New York but across the country. Directed by Alejandro Monteverde (“Sound of Freedom”), the film stars Cristiana Dell’Anna as Cabrini, as well as David Morse (“The Green Mile”) and John Lithgow, and it’s quite different from the usual faith-based drama, because it’s the type of movie that from any other studio, might be seen as awards fodder.

SEE Grab the popcorn and sound off in our movie forums

Although there is still competition for the faith crowd from “The Chosen” and “Ordinary Angels,” the movie should appeal to a specific Catholic demographic in the weeks leading up to Easter, helped by positive reviews and early buzz that should help it open in fourth place with upwards of $10 million in roughly 2,700 theaters. (This could also surprise, since it’s quite hard to track faith-based films, which are often promoted through churches and other religious avenues.)

On top of that, A24 releases the second feature from filmmaker Rose Glass (“Saint Maud”), the crime-thriller “Love Lies Bleeding,” which stars Kristen Stewart as gym manager Lou, who falls for bodybuilder Jackie (Katy O’Brian) when she comes through town, but the two of them end up in trouble when they decide to do something about Lou’s abusive brother-in-law (Dave Franco). It will open in five theaters in New York and L.A. on Friday with plans to expand nationwide on Friday, March 15.

Also opening in select cities is Mark Lambert Bristol‘s dramedy “Accidental Texan,” starring Rudy Pankow, Thomas Haden Church (“Sideways”), Carrie-Anne Moss, and Bruce Dern. Based on Cole Thompson‘s “Chocolate Lizards,” Pankow plays failed actor Erwin whose car breaks down in Texas, so he has to turn to local oil driller Merle to get the money to fix it.

Check back on Sunday morning to see how the above movies do.

SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions

Best of GoldDerby

Sign up for Gold Derby's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

Click here to read the full article.