Box office preview: ‘John Wick: Chapter 4’ should give movie theaters another much-needed bump

Edward Douglas
·5 min read
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After one of the more disappointing weekends of the past month, we’re heading into what is likely to be one of the biggest, as Keanu Reeves returns to his unstoppable action franchise with “John Wick: Chapter 4.” Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.

The fourth installment of the franchise that began in 2014 continues Wick’s attempts to survive against the assassins sent by the “High Table” (essentially, a secret organization in charge of all assassin activities in the world) to kill him, led by the “Marquis” (Bill Skarsgård from last year’s “Barbarian”). It also adds the like of martial arts stars Donnie Yen and Scott Adkins, as well as Shamier Anderson (“Bruiser”), Hiroyuki Sanada (“Bullet Train”) and pop star Rina Sawayama, with existing characters played by Ian McShane, Laurence Fishburne and the late Lance Reddick returning from previous chapters.

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When the original “John Wick” movie opened in October 2014, not a lot was thought about it since Reeves was on a bit of a downturn as an actor. The movie opened with $14.4 million and grossed $43 million domestic, which wasn’t too spectacular, but it presumably found an audience on home entertainment, which led to “John Wick: Chapter 2” opening with $30.4 million in February 2017, going on to make $92 million in North America and $171.3 million globally. Even that fantastic showing couldn’t prepare anyone for 2019’s “John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum” which made as much domestically as the previous movie made globally, opening with $56.8 million in a plum summer release.

SEE March 2023 box office preview

And then came COVID, which delayed the plans to make “Chapter 4” soon after the third chapter, although director Chad Stahelski persevered, and Lionsgate was finally able to get it a late March release into more than 3,700 theaters (and presumably more than “Chapter 3’s” 3,850 theaters).

Although Reeves has a career that has spanned over 40 years ago, he seems to be having a bit of a Renaissance in recent years due to “Wick” and other projects, which has helped lead to long-delayed installments of the “Matrix” and “Bill and Ted” franchises. Both of those were hobbled by decisions made during the pandemic to release concurrently on streaming as in theaters. (There have been rumors that they might even be a sequel to Keanu’s 2004 movie, “Constantine,” despite the DC Universe having gone in so many different directions since then.)

Reviews have been quite stellar with the movie premiering at the SXSW Film Festival last week, with it sitting at 93 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, which is slightly ahead of the reviews for the previous three movies, which were also quite positive.

Unlike the “Shazam!” sequel, more people – mostly guys, if we’re being honest – have been looking forward to this fourth movie, and that should really bolster its opening weekend to anywhere from $65 million or higher with help from the IMAX screens on which it will play.

SEE 2022 box office hits: Every movie that made more than $100 million

Also opening in an unknown number of theaters (but probably a few hundred across the country) is Zach Braff’s new drama, “A Good Person,” starring Florence Pugh, Morgan Freeman and Molly Shannon. In the movie, Pugh plays Allison, a young woman dealing with addiction to bills after a car accident that killed her fiancé’s sister, a condition that sends her into an AA meeting where she encounters her fiancé’s father (played by Freeman). 

Reviews will hit sometime on Wednesday, but presumably, they will be pretty good, since it’s a solid drama with great performances and possibly Braff’s best film since his breakout debut, “Garden State,” in 2004. Add to that, the fact that Pugh has a solid fanbase of younger women, it could help the movie open in the top 10, although getting into the top 5 will highly depend on how many theaters it gets, and how many theaters “65” and “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” lose this weekend.

Filmmakers Stephen Frears and Steve Coogan reteam for “The Lost King” following their Oscar-nominated “Philomena” almost 10 years ago. This one stars Oscar nominee, Sally Hawkins, as Philippa Langley, a woman who become obsessed with King Richard III after seeing the Shakespeare play (with Harry Lloyd in the title role), and decides to look for the location of his remains, which had vanished 500 years earlier. It’s a bit of a niche film, but IFC Films will probably give it a smaller platform release. (Update: This will be released into roughly 800 theaters nationwide, though I don’t think that will be enough to get it into the top 10.)

Sideshow and Janus Films continue their post “Drive My Car” Oscar success by releasing, “Tori and Lokita,” the new film from acclaimed Belgian filmmakers, Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne, this one being about Lokita, an immigrant woman from Africa (Joely Mbundu) and her “younger brother” Tori (Pablo Schills), the two of them trying to survive in urban Belgium by getting involved with corrupt drug dealers.

Check back on Sunday for the wrap-up of how “Wick” and the other movies did.

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