Box office preview: John Krasinski’s ‘IF’ starring Ryan Reynolds hopes to provide some family fun
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Things have begun to pick up at the summer box office, and three new wide releases will try to keep things rolling along. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.
The big movie this weekend is the latest from director John Krasinski, once again teaming with Paramount Pictures for his family film “IF,” starring Ryan Reynolds. “IF” stands for “Imaginary Friends” – not to be confused with the recent horror movie “Imaginary” – although this is a family-friendly version of the same general concept, about a little girl named Bea (played by Cailey Fleming) who begins working with Reynold’s character to help pair IFs who have been abandoned by their childhood friends with new kids.
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Following his run on “The Office” and directing a couple of indies, Krasinski directed “A Quiet Place” for Paramount in 2018, which opened with $50.2 million and went onto gross $188 million domestic and $334 million globally, based on a $17 million budget. Its sequel, “A Quiet Place: Part II” was delayed a full year due to COVID and grossed $160.2 million domestic after opening with $47.5 million, a very small decline despite the ongoing pandemic.
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Having Reynolds as his lead will certainly help “IF,” since Reynolds has become a bonafide A-List star, mainly due to the “Deadpool” movies. Reynolds’ earlier foray into family films was with 2019’s “Detective Pikachu,” which opened with $54.4 million and grossed $428.9 million worldwide. His own pandemic movie was 2021’s “Free Guy,” which opened with $28.4 million in August and had fantastic legs with $121.6 million and $323.5 million worldwide. Since then, Reynolds has done no less than three films for streamers.
Between Krasinski and Reynolds, the movie has racked up a rogues’ gallery of voice talent, including Steve Carell, the late Louis Gossett Jr., Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Sebastian Maniscalco, Maya Rudolph, George Clooney, Sam Rockwell, Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, Awkwafina, and many more, an added bonus for the adults taking their kids to see “IF.”
“IF” is opening in nearly 4,000 theaters this weekend – the third movie of the month to open that wide – and the lack of other family films, which has allowed “Kung Fu Panda 4” to do huge business since opening in early March, should help greatly. Expect “IF” to open with somewhere between $38 and $45 million this weekend for an easy #1, although next weekend, it will have to contend with “The Garfield Movie,” so positive reviews (which will hit on Weds) will certainly be helpful for the movie’s legs.
For the second time this month, we get some horror counter-programming in the form of “The Strangers Chapter 1,” the beginning of a new trilogy based on Bryan Bertino‘s 2008 home invasion movie, which preceded the first “The Purge” movie by five years. It opened with $21 million and grossed $83. Its sequel, “The Strangers: Prey at Night,” made less than half that amount 10 years later in 2018. (Yes, it does make one wonder why Lionsgate has revived the horror franchise, and as a trilogy, no less.) In the first chapter, a young couple are forced to spend the night in a remote cabin after their car breaks down before they’re terrorized by three masked strangers.
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This trilogy is directed by Renny Harlin, best known for his work on ‘90s action films like “Die Hard 2,” “Cliffhanger” and “Deep Blue Sea,” though in recent years, he’s continued to direct smaller, mostly VOD releases, like “The Bricklayer,” starring Aaron Eckhart, earlier this year. Despite Harlin’s lesser visibility, there will certainly be older moviegoers who might be interested in the movie due to his involvement, although the most prominent cast members are Madelaine Paitch from “Riverdale” and Gabriel Basso from “The Night Agent.”
The big question is whether “The Strangers” has found itself more of an audience since the 2018 sequel, as Lionsgate clearly saw some potential to pick up distribution and agree to release two further chapters between now and January. This first chapter doing well is key, although as Lionsgate saw with the “John Wick” movies, the first movie has months to build itself an audience, even if it doesn’t explode in theaters. Expect this first chapter to open somewhere in the $7 to $10 million range this weekend, essentially working as counter-programming for younger moviegoers not as interested in “IF.”
Even more counter-programming comes in the form of the Amy Winehouse biopic “Back to Black,” starring Marisa Abela from “Industry” as the pop/soul singer and directed by Sam Taylor-Johnson (“50 Shades of Grey”). The film follows Winehouse on her rise from a working class Jewish family in Camden Town, London, to becoming a Grammy-winning superstar before her death.
The movie already opened overseas in the UK where Winehouse was hugely successful, but the reviews were dismal, which is going to make it harder to entice American moviegoers into theaters. Regardless, Focus Features is opening the movie into just over 2,000 theaters, where it may be able to open with around $4 million or slightly more, but this might just not be the right time to release the movie with so many stronger offerings in theaters.
Jane Schoenbrun‘s eerie Sundance thriller “I Saw the TV Glow,” starring Justice Smith, will expand nationwide into an unknown number of theaters. It should be interesting to see if their unique take on horror will connect with an audience nationwide vs. the business it’s done in bigger cities. As of this past weekend, the movie has just grossed $368k in 21 or fewer theaters, but the reviews have been great… compared to the Audience Score. Let’s just say that the movie probably won’t be for mainstream audiences but should make $3 million or more based on curiosity and word-of-mouth.
Furthermore, Neon will be giving a limited release to the Pamela (“Better Things”) Adlon-directed comedy, “Babes,” starring (and co-written by) Ilana Glazer from “Broad Street” and Michelle Buteau (“Survival of the Thickest”) as best friends who are at various stages of pregnancy, Glazer’s Eden having gotten pregnant from a Thanksgiving one-night stand. This received rave reviews when it premiered at the SXSW Film and TV Festival, and it just had an appropriate Mother’s Day preview in hopes of getting some word-of-mouth, as it opens in select cities then expands later in the month.
Check back on Sunday for an update on how the above did at the box office.
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