Box office preview: Jennifer Lawrence returns with raunchy comedy ‘No Hard Feelings’
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After a relatively disappointing weekend for new releases, we get what looks like an even quieter weekend before things explode with some major releases next week and throughout July. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.
The biggest release of the weekend marks the return of Oscar winner Jennifer Lawrence in the raunchy R-rated comedy “No Hard Feelings,” directed by Gene Stupnitsky, who directed “Good Boys” and two episodes of “The Office.” Granted, Lawrence did have an Apple TV+ movie called “Causeway” last year, but it didn’t get much of a theatrical release, and Lawrence’s co-star Brian Tyree Henry was the one who got an Oscar nomination there.
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We would have to go all the way back to 2019 for Lawrence’s last real theatrical release. “Dark Phoenix” was the final movie in Lawrence’s obligation to fulfill her role as Raven Darkholme in Fox’s “X-Men” franchise, and that movie bombed quite badly ($65.8 million domestic), paving the way for Marvel Studios to take over and reboot the franchise on some yet-unrevealed timeline. Some might forget that Lawrence was already part of the “X-Men” franchise even before the first “Hunger Games” movie was released and even before she was teamed with filmmaker David O. Russell, who directed her to an Oscar for 2012’s “Silver Linings Playbook.” That movie grossed $132 million in North America, but by then, Lawrence was already on her way to super-stardom after “The Hunger Games” grossed $408 million, just in North America.
The Oscar win and success of her larger studio franchises helped elevate Lawrence’s status to another level, even as Russell’s follow-up, “Joy,” didn’t really do much for anyone in 2015. Between 2016 and 2018, just as “Hunger Games” was coming to an end in late 2015 with nearly $3 billion grossed worldwide from four movies, Lawrence appeared in a number of duds, although Lawrence’s sci-fi thriller “Passengers” with Chris Pratt still made $100 million domestically.
It’s a little concerning that Lawrence’s last attempt at comedy was “Joy,” which only made $56 million domestically, and it’s a little curious to see her doing something so raunchy and possibly closer to something Cameron Diaz might do. (In fact, Stupnitsky wrote and produced Diaz’s 2011 comedy hit “Bad Teacher,” also for Sony.) “No Hard Feelings” is a similarly high-concept premise that has Lawrence playing a young woman trying to make money by seducing the young virgin son of a wealthy couple.
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Because the movie relies so much on Lawrence, without really making it clear who the movie is geared for – is it for Lawrence’s younger female fans, or the testosterone-laden college age males who might generally enjoy R-rated humor? – there’s some confusion around the movie that might make anyone interested not feel like they absolutely MUST see it in theaters. So far this year, very little outside the big studio tentpoles have broken out, so “No Hard Feelings” is not coming into the best market.
Reviews won’t hit for “No Hard Feelings” until Wednesday morning, and I’m not expecting them to be particularly great, though Lawrence and the premise should still be able to bring in roughly $10 to 12 million in business this weekend. That would put it in fourth place behind “The Flash,” “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” and “Elemental.”
Focus Features is taking advantage of the huge success Wes Anderson‘s star-studded ensemble sci-fi comedy “Asteroid City” had playing in New York and Los Angeles this past weekend, as well as the lack of new event movies this weekend to expand the movie into 1,500 theaters. The movie stars Scarlett Johansson, Tom Hanks, Steve Carell, Bryan Cranston, Hong Chau and more as new enlistees into Anderson’s regular ensemble of players.
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Although the movie managed to score one of the best per-theater averages in years when it opened in six New York and L.A. theaters, it’s a little tougher to gauge how that might translate as it expands into over 1,450 more theaters, at which time that per-theater average will drop dramatically. Of note is that Focus gave Anderson’s Oscar-winning “The Grand Budapest Hotel” a much slower roll out and earlier in the year when it wouldn’t be taking on summer blockbusters.
The movie has been generally well-reviewed since its Cannes debut in May, which doesn’t mean it will play for general audiences outside of the bigger cities, despite Anderson being well-loved. (Its current 53% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is quite alarming.) Even so, this might be a stronger offering for many than “No Hurt Feelings,” which might help it make $6 to 8 million this weekend, potentially allowing it to slip into sixth place.
Furthermore, A24 is having a relative hit with Celine Song‘s indie drama “Past Lives,” and they’re going to continue to expand it across the country, although it’s still unclear how wide it will be or whether that will be wide enough to get it into the Top 10 this weekend. The movie has some of the best reviews and audience reactions of any movie out of Sundance, so maybe it can bring in $2 or 3 million, depending on that all-important theater count.
Check back on Sunday for the weekend box office recap to see how things went.
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