Box office preview: ‘Insidious: The Red Door’ and ‘Joy Ride’ take on 2nd weekend of ‘Indiana Jones’

July 2023 launched with a fairly disappointing weekend ahead of the 4th of July, and this weekend, three new movies – one a sequel, the other two original – take on the second weekend of Harrison Ford in “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.” Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.

Even with three new films in wide release this weekend, it doesn’t feel like any of them have the strength to really make much of an impact against Indy, so we probably can expect “Indiana Jones” to win a second weekend with between $24 and 26 million.

More from GoldDerby

• Emmys conundrum: How many actors is TOO many to nominate from the same show?

• 'WHAM!' review round-up: A 'larky, summery nostalgia blast' documents rise of George Michael and Andrew Ridgeley

• 'Welcome to Chippendales' below-the-line crafts artisans could be dancing to 2023 Emmys

As far as the new entries, we first have “Insidious: The Red Door,” the fifth movie in the horror franchise launched by James Wan and Leigh Whannell 13 years ago, starring Patrick Wilson, Rose Byrne and Ty Simpkins. All three are back for “The Red Door” with Wilson making his directorial debut for a chapter that focuses more on his character’s son Dalton (Simpkins) going off to college and re-experiencing the demons from the “Further” that have plagued their family.

SEE ‘M3GAN’ kills at 2023 box office as only original movie in Top 10

“Insidious: The Red Door” is an interesting case, because it’s following four previous movies that have been all over the map in terms of box office. The previous movie, “Insidious: The Last Key,” kicked off the month of January 2018 by opening with $29.6 million, grossing $67.7 million domestically. That was better than the Whannell-directed “Insidious: Chapter 3” in 2015, which opened with $22.7 million and was the lowest-grossing of the series with $52.2 million. That threequel came just two years after Wan directed “Insidious: Chapter 2,” which is still the highest-grossing movie of the franchise with $83.6 million.

That puts “The Red Door” in an interesting place, because fans may already be burnt out on the franchise. In fact, after five years, they might have already forgotten about it, although having Wilson and Byrne return is a pretty big deal. With no reviews before Thursday and with the general ennui at the box office, I’m thinking this will end up closer to “Chapter 3” in the low-$20 millions, which could be a push for first place depending on how far “Indiana Jones” falls in its second weekend.

Also, Lionsgate is releasing the R-rated comedy “Joy Ride,” directed by Adele Lim (screenwriter of “Crazy Rich Asians”), into roughly 2,700 theaters on Friday, the movie reading a bit like an Asian-American “Girls Trip.” That movie opened in 2017 to a whopping $31.2 million and grossed $115.1 million domestically, and “Joy Ride” sports a great cast that includes Ashley Park (“Emily in Paris”), Oscar nominee Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”), Sherry Cola (“Good Trouble”) and stand-up comic Sabrina Wu, with strong hopes this could be a big draw this weekend for younger audiences.

SEE 2023 box office hits: Every movie that made more than $100 million

By comparison, “Crazy Rich Asians” was a PG-13 rom-com that was fairly tame compared to “Joy Ride,” which will probably appeal more to 20 to 30-something women, more than to men. In theory, the R-rating and the lesser-known Asian cast might limit the audience slightly. A more apt comparison might be the R-rated comedy “Blockers” in 2018, which opened with $20.6 million and made $60.3 million, though that probably targeted an even younger audience than “Joy Ride” does.

“Joy Ride” has received excellent reviews, currently at 97% on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing, and that should definitely help get people interested, though “Joy Ride” will probably open closer to $14 to 15 million this weekend, though word-of-mouth should help it bring in counter-programming business over the rest of the month

SEE Grab the popcorn and sound off in our movie forums

On the 4th of July, Angel Studios released “Sound of Freedom,” starring Jim Caviezel (“The Passion of the Christ”) as a federal agent trying to put a stop to sex trafficking in third-world countries, based on the true story of Tim Ballard. The movie also stars Mira Sorvino, and pre-sales have been huge – reportedly upwards of $10 million  – and early reports have it making $5 million just in its Monday previews and $11 million on Tuesday (including previews). It’s hard to tell if this is a movie that might be frontloaded, but its pre-sales may be spread out across its first six days, and who knows if there’ll be much left for it to bring in over the weekend? There’s a good chance, it will only make between $4 and 6 million over the weekend, which is likely to keep it outside the Top 5. Still, a movie from a relatively unknown independent distributor making $20 million or more in its first week is nothing to scoff at.

Also on Friday, IFC Films releases the sci-fi comedy “Biosphere,” starring Mark Duplass and Sterling K. Brown, directed by Mel Esley (who runs Duplass Brothers Productions), while Bleecker Street will release “The Lesson,” a Brit-thriller starring Oscar nominee Richard E. Grant and Julie Delpy.

Check back on Sunday for the weekend box office report to see how the new movies do against Indy.

SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions

Best of GoldDerby

• 2023 box office hits: Every movie that made more than $100 million, including 'The Flash'

• Wes Anderson movies: All 11 films ranked from worst to best

• Steve Carell movies: 15 greatest films ranked from worst to best

Sign up for Gold Derby's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

Click here to read the full article.