Box office preview: Can ‘Gran Turismo’ and ‘National Cinema Day’ help maintain momentum from ‘Barbenheimer’?
- Oops!Something went wrong.Please try again later.
- Oops!Something went wrong.Please try again later.
After two dismal weekends at the box office, any chance of things recovering for the last weekend of August doesn’t seem likely, although one daring movie (and this year’s “National Cinema Day“) will try to make an impact. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.
On Sunday, August 27, many North American theaters will be offering $4 movie tickets in hopes of keeping the burst of movie attendance thanks to “Barbenheimer” going into September. It will be hard to tell what sort of effect it has this year, because studio estimates on Sunday might not be able to account for any bump from National Cinema Day.
More from GoldDerby
With that in mind, Sony is releasing the racing movie “Gran Turismo,” which isn’t based on the Sony Playstation driving simulator as much as it tells the true story of Jann Mardenborough, as played by Archie Madekwe (“Midsommar”), a gamer whose skills at Playstation’s popular video game led to him becoming a bonafide race car driver. The movie also stars David Harbour, Orlando Bloom, Djimon Hounsou and Geri Horner (who might be better known from her maiden name, Halliwell). It’s also the new movie from South African-born filmmaker Neill Blomkamp, whose early film “District 9” was nominated for Best Picture in 2009, but didn’t have quite as much success with the movies that followed, “Elysium” and “Chappie.”
The history of video game movies is long and fraught with hits (like last year’s “Uncharted”) and misses (too many to mention), but in reality, “Gran Turismo” is more like a real-life inspirational racing movie a la James Mangold‘s “Ford v Ferrari,” which opened with $31.5 million in November 2019 and grossed over $100 million both domestically and overseas. By comparison, Ron Howard‘s 2013 racing movie “Rush,” starring Chris Hemsworth, made just $27 million total domestic.
“Gran Turismo” has the benefit of the name brand value that comes with being loosely based on a popular Playstation game. Sony’s decision to delay the movie two weeks may have helped build positive word-of-mouth with a number of preview screenings. If not for the disappointing showing for “Blue Beetle” this past weekend, “Gran Turismo” might normally open over $30 million, but all things considered, it probably will be closer to $20 million or slightly higher. It should win the weekend, but don’t overestimate the chance of “Barbie” returning to #1 for another week, either.
Liam Neeson stars in the thriller “Retribution,” playing a financial advisor driving his teenage kids to school when he gets a call threatening to blow up the car if he doesn’t comply. Directed by Nimród Antal (“Predators”), the movie is being released by Roadside Attractions in an undisclosed number of theaters nationwide this Friday.
SEE Box office record: ‘Oppenheimer’ beats ‘Sing’ as highest-grossing movie to never be number one
Normally, this would be targeting some of the same older male audience that might be interested in a racing movie like “Gran Turismo.” It’s also being released with very little advance buzz, and some might say that it’s being dumped into this weekend, knowing it will be overshadowed by other movies in theaters, including next week’s “The Equalizer 3.”
Neeson has appeared in many similar thrillers since movie theaters reopened post pandemic, but they’ve had diminishing returns. The February release “Marlowe,” based on Raymond Chandler‘s fictional noir detective and directed by Oscar-winning filmmaker Neil Jordan, opened with just $1.8 million in 2,281 theaters and ended up making just $5.7 million worldwide. With its high-concept premise, “Retribution” might be an easier sell to mainstream moviegoers, which could help it open with between $3 and 5 million, but that’s not going to get it into the top five either way.
Dennis Quaid stars in “The Hill,” the second true-life sports movie of the weekend, this one about Rickey Hill, played by Colin Ford, who overcomes a childhood physical handicap to try out for a Major League Baseball scout, played by Scott Glenn. Also starring Joelle Carter and Bonnie Bedelia and directed by Jeff Celentano, “The Hill” will be released into an unknown number of theaters nationwide by Briarcliff, which has mostly been releasing Neeson thrillers in the past couple years. (In fact, this is more like a movie Roadside Attractions might release.)
Being an inspirational faith-based story set in Texas, this could be focusing more of its attention in the heartland and areas where Rickey Hill’s story is more known, but it’s also relying on the presence of Quaid, who like other actors, can’t be out promoting on the talk shows due to the strikes. Because of that, this might struggle to even make $3 million this weekend, though it could sneak into the Top 10.
SEE 2024 Oscars: 9 predicted rookie acting nominees … and who could win
A movie one might normally expect to see during festival season – which starts next week! – or making an Oscar play is “Golda,” the new movie from Oscar-winning filmmaker Guy Nattiv (“Skin”), starring Oscar champ Dame Helen Mirren as Golda Meir, the aging Prime Minister of Israel who facing a crisis as the country was attacked by surrounding Egypt and Syria. It’s being released by Bleecker Street Films into 883 locations on Friday after Fathom Events previews on Wednesday, though it feels very much like it’s also being dumped into a weekend notoriously bad for moviegoing.
“Golda” debuted at the Berlin Film Festival earlier this year and has amassed quite a few mixed reviews since then, which certainly won’t help garner interest for a movie that seemingly only just started running commercials last week. The movie will hold special interest to older Jewish folks who were alive during Meir’s run. Regardless of how many theaters this gets, it’s also the least likely of the new movies to break out of this week’s moderate or wide releases, so we’ll have to see if this even makes a million. (Ironically, this was moved into this weekend after another Mirren film, “White Bird,” was delayed to 2024.)
Opening in limited release Friday with plans for further expansion is “Bottoms,” the new comedy from Emma Seligman (“Shiva Baby”), starring Rachel Sennott and Ayo Edebiri as two queer high school friends who decide to start a fight club in order to hook up with cheerleaders. Maybe MGM thinks they’ve got the next “Porky’s” here, but we’ll have to see how it fares against a slew of September sequels.
Check back on Sunday for the rundown of how all the movies did at the box office this weekend.
SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions
Best of GoldDerby
Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars: What the last 10 winners tell us about this year
Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars: What the last 10 winners tell us about this year
Best Actress at the Oscars: What the last 10 winners tell us about this year
Sign up for Gold Derby's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.
