Box office preview: ‘Fast X’ racing to the top over ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’

Edward Douglas
·4 min read
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We’re three weeks into the summer movie season, and it’s looking much like previous months where only one or two movies are doing well, while all else flounders. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.

This week’s high-profile release is “Fast X,” the 10th installment of the Universal franchise that began in 2001 with “The Fast and the Furious,” a surprise hit at the time, making stars of Vin Diesel and Paul Walker. Both of them returned in 2009 for the fourth movie “Fast & Furious,” directed by Justin Lin, who stuck around for three movies including 2021’s “F9.”

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Lin left “Fast X” as director, to be replaced by Louis Letterier (“The Incredible Hulk,” “Now You See Me”) but Lin’s screenplay was used for what will be the first part of the finale for the entire franchise. Originally, it was meant to be a two-part finale, but Diesel recently stated it would actually be a three-parter, so we’ll have to see if that happens or not.

SEE ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’ trailer: The end of the road for James Gunn

The big addition this installment is Jason Momoa (“Aquaman”) as Dante Reyes, a far more flamboyant villain than we’ve seen in these movies, who also wants revenge against Diesel’s Dom Toretto for some past infraction (in his case, from the events of 2011’s “Fast Five”). Also joining the cast are two Oscar winners in Brie Larson and Rita Moreno, joining returning Oscar champs Helen Mirren and Charlize Theron. Other characters played by John Cena and Jason Statham return in secondary roles.

“F9” opened in late June 2021 with $70 million, better than the 2019 “Hobbs and Shaw” spin-off, which opened with $60 million, but that was the lowest showing for the franchise since the return of Diesel and Walker in 2009. At least with “F9,” we could credit the pandemic for the weaker opening, but with theaters back in business, “Fast X” really needs to do better if Universal might consider giving it an extra movie. Fortunately, these films tend to always do better overseas than in North America, so that might play a huge factor whether we see two more street racing movies or just one more.

Despite opening in over 4,000 theaters, including large format screens like IMAX, “Fast X” may open slightly softer than “F9,” between $64 and 70 million, but it really depends on how well reviews pan out, since it feels like even diehard fans may be getting tired of the franchise and its “family.”

SEE May 2023 box office preview

James Gunn‘s “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” did particularly well this past weekend, dropping just 48% from its opening weekend to make $62.6 million (higher than the Sunday estimates), which was one of the best second weekend showings for a Marvel sequel. Even with the chances of losing premium format screens to “Fast X,” it should still be able to pull in somewhere between $30 and 35 million in its third weekend as word-of-mouth continues to spread.

There are a number of interesting limited releases opening this weekend, as NEON will release Zachary Wigon‘s drama “Sanctuary,” starring Margaret Qualley and Christopher Abbott, into an unknown number of theaters after buying the movie out of last year’s Toronto International Film Festival. There’s also the sci-fi rom-com “Robots,” starring Jack Whitehall and Shailene Woodley, which will be released by NEON division Decal.

Oscar-nominated filmmaker Paul Schrader (“American Gigolo”) returns with his new movie “Master Gardener,” starring Joel Edgerton, Sigourney Weaver and newcomer Quintessa Swindell, which will get a limited release through Magnolia Pictures this weekend.

IFC Films and Bleecker Street Films are likely to expand their dramas “Monica” and “Starling Girl” into more theaters this weekend based on their respective platform releases last week, although only “Monica” is said to possibly end up nationwide.

Check back on Sunday for the weekend recap to see how everything above did.

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