Box office preview: ‘Evil Dead Rise’ and Guy Ritchie should have very little effect on ‘Super Mario Bros.’

Edward Douglas
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With the caveat that Universal’s animated blockbuster “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” is going to win a third weekend at the box office with very little effort, we’re still going to see four new wide releases this weekend, including one expanding nationwide after opening in just four theaters. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.

Warner Bros. and New Line team with Sam Raimi for the latest incarnation of his popular ’80s horror franchise, “Evil Dead Rise.” This one is directed by Irish filmmaker Lee Cronin (“The Hole in the Ground”), who isn’t quite that well known outside of horror circles, but he clearly impressed those that saw it at its SXSW Film Festival premiere. With 44 reviews at the time of this writing, the movie has a surprisingly high 95% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, which should help the fact that it has a relatively no-name cast.

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Then again, this is horror and the movie’s SXSW debut was helped by an absolutely terrifying Red Band trailer that’s been doing the rounds showcasing the movie’s R-rated gore. That should entice horror fans young and old into theaters.

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Although the previous “Evil Dead” remake in 2013 opened with $25.8 million, this one has a few things working against it, one of them being the fact it was originally intended to stream on HBO Max (similar to Steven Soderbergh’s “Magic Mike’s Last Dance” and the “House Party” remake earlier this year). Horror has generally done decently this year, especially with younger moviegoers, and this should be able to capitalize on that fact to make between $15 and 20 million this weekend for second place.

Possibly offering some counter-programming for older guys is “Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant,” which tells the story of Staff Sergeant John Kinley (played by Jake Gyllenhaal), a soldier saved from a Taliban ambush by his interpreter Ahmed (Dar Salim), who then has to return to save him and his family after Ahmed is labelled public enemy #1 by the Taliban.

Guy Ritchie has had a bit of an up and down career over the years with massive hits like 2009’s “Sherlock Holmes” and Disney’s “Aladdin” in 2019, but also some duds like “King Arthur: Legend of the Sword” and “The Man from U.N.C.L.E.,” both meant to be franchise starters. Ritchie’s last few movies, 2020’s “The Gentlemen” and 2021’s “Wrath of Man” did okay, all things considered, even if March’s “Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre” tanked. Putting Ritchie’s name in the title could be a hit or miss prospect depending on how critics react to “The Covenant.”

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Gyllenhaal’s last movie, “Ambulance,” an action movie directed by no less than Michael Bay, opened with just $8.7 million and grossed less than $23 million domestically. That’s less than Ritchie’s “Wrath of Man” in 2021 (opening shortly after movie theaters reopened in New York and L.A. “post-pandemic.”) While it’s hard to think that the pairing of the two could do better, there is definitely a male audience in the country that thrives on this sort of war drama, based on the success of Sam Mendes‘ “Jarhead” (also starring a much-younger Gyllenhaal), Clint Eastwood‘s Oscar-nominated “American Sniper,” and Mark Wahlberg’s “Lone Survivor,” the latter two based on successful books (unlike “The Covenant,” which feels like a true story, but isn’t). With all the above factors in play, “Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant” may struggle to make more than $10 million this weekend, although that should still be enough for it to open in third place.

A24 is expanding Ari Aster’s “Beau is Afraid,” starring Oscar winner Joaquin Phoenix, into a wide release in an unknown number of theaters. This past weekend, the movie opened in four theaters in New York and L.A. with one of the best per-theater averages in three years. It’s a strange movie that has Phoenix playing the title character, literally a man afraid of everything, but mostly his own mother (played by Zoe Lister-Jones and the great Patti LuPone). Also starring Amy Ryan, Nathan Lane, Richard Kind and Parker Posey, the reviews for Aster’s latest have mostly been positive, although it’s more of an arthouse absurdist comedy than the horror of his earlier films, “Hereditary” and “Midsommar,” so it might end up with around $6 to 8 million this weekend, which should be enough to take fourth place.

Furthermore, Searchlight will release Stephen Williams’ period biopic “Chevalier,” starring Kelvin Harrison Jr. (“Elvis”) as Joseph Bologne, a little-known 17th Century composer, the illegitimate son of a slave who made his way into upper class French society after receiving the title of “Chevalier” from Queen Marie Antoinette (Lucy Boynton). Joseph’s world comes crashing down when he has an affair with a married opera singer (Samara Weaving) and the French people turn against their Queen.

The movie received semi-decent reviews out of its Toronto International Film Festival premiere, and opening in 1,350 theaters, it might have a chance to sneak into the Top 10 with between $2 and 3 million, although this is normally the type of movie that would be released in November or December.

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Shailene Woodley and Ben Mendelsohn star in the crime thriller “To Catch a Killer,” which Vertical is set to release in 500+ theaters this weekend. The movie about a serial killer terrorizing Boston comes from Argentine filmmaker Damián Szifron, whose movie “Wild Tales” received an Oscar nomination in 2015. This isn’t getting a ton of promotion and is likely to end up with less than a million this weekend.

Lastly, there’s choreographer Benjamin Millepied’s feature directorial debut “Carmen,” a modern take on the Bizet opera, starring Oscar nominee Paul Mescal, Melissa Barrera (“Scream”) and Almodovar regular Rossy de Palma. Sony Pictures Classics will open the movie in New York and L.A. with a slow roll-out from there.

Chances are that with this newer high-profile R-rated hitting theaters, last week’s “The Pope’s Exorcist” and “Renfield” will topple right out of the Top 5.

Check back on Sunday for our recap of how the movies fared this coming weekend.

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