Box office preview: Disney’s ‘Wish’ should continue the studio’s run of Thanksgiving hits

Edward Douglas
·5 min read
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It’s Thanksgiving weekend and two new wide releases are opening on Wednesday, “Wish” and “Napoleon,” while “Saltburn” expands wide after a limited debut. And moviegoers still have all of those movies from this past weekend as an option, too. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.

Disney, the studio that’s had the most success on the extended holiday weekend, will release its latest animated film, “Wish,” on November 22. Disney’s history having huge family hits over Thanksgiving week is somewhat legendary with the studio holding more than 12 of the Top 20 Thanksgiving openings under its belt. Thanksgiving being such a big moviegoing draw is helped by people being out en masse for Black Friday shopping, making that a busy moviegoing day as well.

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“Wish” is classic Disney, a story about a teen girl named Asha (voiced by Oscar winner Ariana Debose) who wishes upon a star – a nice throwback to the famed Oscar-winning song from 1940’s “Pinocchio” – and ends up having to contend with a troublesome star that comes to earth. The film also features Chris Pine as the voice of King Magnifico, Disney regular Alan Tudyk voicing Asha’s goat, Valentino, and Evan Peters as her best friend. Like many of Disney’s movies, “Wish” is a musical with lots of catchy tunes, these ones written by Grammy-nominated artists Julie Michaels and JP Saxe, many of which have been released to get the Disney stans excited about the project.

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In 2021, Disney released “Encanto” on the Thanksgiving weekend, but it only opened with $27.2 million ($40.7 million for the five-day weekend) — though it probably was hurt by the pandemic since not all kids were fully vaccinated at that time. Disney’s biggest hit for the weekend was “Frozen II,” which opened the weekend before Thanksgiving in 2019 but still had enough staying power to make almost $86 million in its second three-day weekend. That followed six years after 2013’s “Frozen,” which made $93.9 million over the five-day weekend after a one-weekend platform release in L.A. “Frozen” ended up grossing $1.2 billion worldwide, leading to the sequel, which did even better, and “Wish” continues the similar format, combining fantasy with princesses and song.

The movie has received mixed reviews at best, but fortunately, the Disney brand continues to mean something to families, even as many of its animated fare have failed to do well in theaters with many expecting them to debut on the streamer Disney+ not long afterwards.

Co-directed by Chris Buck, who directed the hugely successful “Frozen” movies, this time co-directing with Fawn Veerasunthorn, the biggest hurdle “Wish” might have to face is the known quantity that is DreamWorks Animation’s “Trolls Band Together,” which could be a stronger pull for families on Black Friday. Even so, “Wish” should be able to win the weekend with around $25 to $35 million over the three-day weekend, with another $10 to 12 million made from Tuesday through Thursday.

There should also still be enough room for last week’s “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” and “Trolls Band Together” to bring in word-of-mouth business for second and third place.

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Ridley Scott‘s historic epic “Napoleon,” starring Oscar winner Joaquin Phoenix as the conqueror-turned-emperor and Vanessa Kirby as his lady love Josephine, finally is being released after a number of COVID-related delays. This is Apple’s big Oscar push for the year, along with Martin Scorsese‘s “Killers of the Flower Moon.” The movie screened last week with a number of high-profile premieres, but reviews have been fair-to-middling and not many critics have declared it a masterpiece on par with the new entries from Scorsese and Nolan.

The problem with releasing “Napoleon” over Thanksgiving is that it’s mainly seen as a holiday to spend with families, and movies geared towards guys 30 and older have a tougher time finding business. It’s hard to forget Oliver Stone‘s “Alexander,” starring Colin Farrell as that conqueror, which opened over Thanksgiving weekend in 2004 to the tune of $21.8 million – which at the time probably seemed fine, but not compared to its $155 million budget.

“Napoleon” cost even more to make, so Apple turned to Sony to help with the theatrical distribution, which will include an IMAX release, something that generally can help a movie since many diehard theatergoers do prefer that premium format.

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Still, it’s hard to imagine this can make more than $30 million over the five days and probably closer to $20 to 22 million, mainly weighed toward Wednesday (which will include Tuesday previews). That would leave it with less than $20 million over the three-day weekend, but it should still be able to open in fourth place with everything else toppling.

Also expanding nationwide is Emerald Ferrell‘s dark comedy/thriller “Saltburn,” starring Barry Keoghan (“Eternals”), Jacob  Elordi (“Priscilla”), Archie Madekwe (“Gran Turismo”), plus Oscar nominees Richard E. Grant, Rosamund Pike and Carey Mulligan, who starred and was nominated for Ferrell’s earlier film, “Promising Young Woman.” This one involves Keoghan’s Oliver being invited to spend the summer with Elordi’s popular and good-looking Felix on his eccentric family’s estate, dubbed Saltburn.

The movie premiered at the Telluride Film Festival and has generally won over the critics with a solid 73% on Rotten Tomatoes, but it’s unclear how wide MGM will take it on Wednesday. The studio is presuming the eccentric family aspects of the movie might make it interesting to families with older kids, ala Rian Johnson‘s “Knives Out” a few years back. With the early buzz “Saltburn” has received, it probably can make $6 to 7 million over the five days with $4 to 5 million of that over the weekend, putting it closer to the bottom of the top 10.

Check back on Sunday to see how all the movies did over the long holiday weekend.

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