Box office preview: Can ‘Demon Slayer’ or Hilary Swank make a mark as February comes to an end?

Edward Douglas
·6 min read
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It’s the last full weekend of the shorter month of February, and it’s hard to think that anything will do well enough to have any sort of impact on a month that barely recovered from January with a better-than-expected Presidents Day weekend. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.

What we get this weekend as far as new wide releases is an anime project, a faith-based drama and a quirky indie of sorts from an Oscar-winning filmmaker, which should all enter the Top 10 interspersed with returning movies.

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Crunchyroll is releasing “Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training” into 1,962 theaters. It’s a similar theatrical release as what’s been done with “The Chosen,” in that it’s actually made up of two episodes from the popular Crunchyroll anime series, the conclusion of the “Swordsmith Village Arc” and the first episode of the “Hashira Training Arc,” giving fans of the series a chance to see them first in theaters, including IMAX screens. The awareness and appeal of this release will probably be solely focused on fans of that popular series, though they do number in the millions.

The last theatrical release for the anime series was 2023’s “Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village,” which opened with $10.1 million in 1,774 theaters, settling for a fourth place opening against “Creed III” and bigger returning movies, “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” and “Cocaine Bear.” The last two months being so slow at the box office gives its follow-up a better chance to do well this weekend, optimally trying to achieve the success of 2021’s “Mugen Train” release, which opened with $22.8 million to take a close second place to “Mortal Kombat,” and that was released just as movie theaters reopened post-pandemic.

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That’s a pretty big difference in opening weekends, but with less competition, and so many more fans of the series from its five seasons streaming on Crunchyroll, it makes sense for the biggest anime fans to pick this as an option this weekend. On the other hand, the fact that these are episodes of a series they’ll be able to stream soon enough might keep it from achieving the success of “Mugen Train.”

Even so, considering the continued success and popularity of anime, “Demon Slayer” stands the best chance at defeating “Bob Marley: One Love” in its second weekend, but it probably will end up in second place with under $15 million since these releases also tend to be hugely front-loaded.

Hilary Swank stars in “Ordinary Angels,” the Lionsgate true-life faith-based drama which was delayed from its planned October release due to a little movie called “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour.” Directed by Jon Gunn, who wrote the hit faith-based films, “I Still Believe,” “American Underdog” and “Jesus Revolution,” the movie stars Swank as Sharon Stevens, a Tennessee hairdresser who hears about the plight of Ed Schmitt (Alan Ritchson from Amazon’s “Reacher” series) to get his five-year-old daughter a kidney transplant.

It’s been roughly four years since Swank had any sort of wide theatrical release, both of them in 2020, as the genre films, “The Hunt” and “Fatale,” failed to make much of a mark due to COVID. In fact, Swank hasn’t starred in a movie that has made more than $100 million since her Oscar-winning turn in Clint Eastwood‘s “Million Dollar Baby” way back in 2004. And yet, she’s still a fantastic actor with two Oscars, and she brings her A-game to this true-life story that is likely to appeal to older audiences and women, especially in Southern and Midwestern states where these types of stories are appreciated. Swank’s co-star Alan Ritchson doesn’t have as much of a box office track record, though he did appear in last year’s “Fast X,” and he’s become quite popular from his lead role on “Reacher.” Expect the movie to do particularly well in the Tennessee region where this inspirational story was big news.

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Reviews for “Ordinary Angels” were released for this on Tuesday, though these types of true-life faith-based dramas rarely do well among critics, compared to audiences, and this seems like solid counter-programming to the latest anime release. “Ordinary Angels” could end up with $10 million or more this weekend, which would put it into third place just behind “Bob Marley” and “Demon Slayer,” and we can expect it to do decently over the next few weeks, even if reviews are mixed at best.

With a release into 2,200 theaters, “Drive-Away Dolls” is the solo directorial debut by Oscar winner Ethan Coen. The unconventional indie crime-comedy stars Margaret Qualley (“Poor Things”) and Geraldine Viswanathan (“Miracle Workers”) as lesbian besties who go on a road trip to Tallahassee, Florida unaware that the car they’re driving holds a very valuable briefcase that a number of criminals are trying to get their hands on. Also starring Beanie Feldstein, Colman Domingo, Pedro Pascal, Bill Camp, Joey Slotnick and C.J. Wilson, the film is a dark comedy very much in the vein of Coen’s previous work with his brother, most notably “Fargo” and “Burn After Reading” (the latter a huge hit for Focus Features).

This seems like it might be a tough sell, especially after the poor showing for “Lisa Frankenstein” just a few weeks ago. Despite a decent younger cast and Coen’s reputation, there doesn’t seem to be much here that will get people out to theaters, especially knowing it will probably be on Peacock in a month or less. Because of that, expect this to get into the Top 5 but with less than $5 million, relying heavily on reviews, which won’t hit until Wednesday afternoon.

Furthermore, Warner Bros. is re-releasing Christopher Nolan‘s 2020 sci-fi action movie “Tenet” nationwide and into domestic IMAX theaters for the first time with a preview of next week’s “Dune: Part 2” attached to it, to help build momentum for what’s likely to be a huge hit in March.

The Oscar-nominated Italian submission “Io capitano” from Matteo Garrone (“Gomorrah”) will get a limited release this weekend, as will the Turkish submission “About Dry Grasses” from Nuri Bilge Ceylan, plus “Chico and Rita” directors Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal return with the musical doc “They Shot the Piano Player” about an acclaimed British salsa pianist who vanished in Argentina in 1976. Another limited release is the doc “Veselka: The Rainbow on the Corner at the Center of the World,” about the beloved Ukrainian eatery in New York’s East Village, this one narrated by David Duchovny.

Check back on Sunday to see how all of the movies do as the month comes to an end.

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