Box office preview: ‘The Creator’ and 2 more sequels will try to rev up the end of September
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It’s the last weekend of a September chock-full of sequels, a few doing better than others. Sure enough, this weekend adds two more, but also a rare original science fiction film. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.
The last few weekends have been so bad at the box office it may point toward audiences being ready for new and original movies. That’s certainly the case with 20th Century Studios’ “The Creator,” a new original science fiction movie from “Rogue One” and “Godzilla” director Gareth Edwards. It stars John David Washington from “Tenet” as a soldier in the war between humans and robots, who travels to Asia to find his missing wife Maya (Gemma Chan), only to be roped into a mission where he must find and kill a synthetic child (Madeleine Yuna Voyles), that could win the war for the robots.
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Original science fiction not based on previous IP – whether it’s from a novel, a comic book, or a previous franchise – can be a tough sell, as filmmaker Alex Garland discovered, as he followed up his own popular original robot movie, “Ex Machina,” with the epic sci-fi film, “Annihilation.” That only made $43 million worldwide in 2018 after an $11 million domestic opening, well below its $55 million budget. Another example is James Gray’s “Ad Astra,” starring Brad Pitt, which opened with $19 million in September 2019, but only made $50.2 million domestic. (That did far better overseas.) One of the filmmakers who has had good luck with original sci-fi is South African filmmaker Neill Blomkamp, who burst onto the scene with “District 9” in 2009. It opened with $37.3 million and grossed $115 million domestic and slightly less overseas, leading to “Elysium,” starring Matt Damon, which opened with $29.8 million but barely made $100 million domestic. (Like “Ad Astra,” that did much better overseas due to the presence of Damon.)
One presumes Edwards will bring some name brand value among genre fans from directing the popular “Star Wars” spin-off “Rogue One,” although Tony Gilroy ended up taking over the project (and the Emmy-nominated spin-off Disney+ series, “Andor“). Washington last appeared in Christopher Nolan‘s “Tenet,” which was hobbled by the pandemic when it was released in late 2020. He also starred in Spike Lee‘s Oscar-winning “BlackKklansman,” though, and it probably doesn’t hurt that he’s the son of Denzel Washington, one of the most reliable box office stars these days.
There are definitely some hurdles for “The Creator” to overcome, but word-of-mouth has been very favorable from early screenings — reviews came out on Tuesday that gave it a positive 81% on Rotten Tomatoes – and the fact it isn’t a sequel should make it somewhat appealing. It’s also taking over IMAX screens this weekend, which means higher ticket prices for the largest screens possible. Because of this, “The Creator” should open with over $20 million. It might open under $25 million, but if word-of-mouth continues to build from early previews, it could pull off a weekend surprise.
The other two major wide releases, both sequels, might have a tough time getting much business based on the general reception to sequels this past month. Of the two movies, I’ll have to give Paramount’s “PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie” a slight advantage over “Saw X,” though.
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Both movies had previous installments that opened in 2021, just as we were getting out of the pandemic, but “PAW Patrol” generally did better opening in August with $13.1 million on its way to $40.1 million domestic and $151.4 million worldwide. That last number is probably the most significant one, because it means that it warrants a sequel that could potentially do as well or better.
Featuring the voices of Kristen Bell, Chris Rock, Taraji P. Henson, Lil Rel Howery, Kim Kardashian, Tyler Perry and Jimmy Kimmel, “PAW Patrol” also has an advantage by being the first family film in many months, and the brand that has been created by “PAW Patrol,” make it hugely popular among younger kids, whose parents might want to get them out of the house over the weekend. Since the actors are still on strike, the movie won’t benefit from that celebrity voice cast doing morning and late night shows, unfortunately.
There actually have been quite a few animated hits released in September over the years, including “Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs” in 2009 ($30.3 million opening) and Adam Sandler‘s “Hotel Transylvania” in 2012 ($42.5 million opening). In fact, the sequel, “Hotel Transylvania 2,” opened even bigger with $48.5 million in 2015, proving that sequels to family films could do as well as better than the original, and “Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation” also did quite well.
With all that in mind, there’s a good chance “PAW Patrol: The Might Movie” can open with between $15 and 20 million, and if “The Creator” significantly underperforms, it could very well end up taking first place.
“Saw X” will open in roughly 500 fewer theaters than “PAW Patrol,” the 10th installment of the long-running horror franchise that began with the James Wan-directed “Saw” way back in 2004. The low-budget indie ended up opening with $18.3 million over the “Halloweekend” that year and went on to gross $56 million domestically. Over the next four years, “Saw” dominated that same late October weekend with “Saw II” through “Saw V,” which all opened over $30 million.
After the sudden crash of “Saw V,” which opened with less than half its predecessors, it’s now been 13 years since “Saw 3D” opened with more than $20 million, as Lionsgate has tried to reboot the horror franchise a few times. “Jigsaw” in 2010 opened with $16.6 million, but then 2021’s “Spiral,” starring Chris Rock and Samuel L. Jackson, opened with half that amount, not helped by opening so soon after theaters reopened post-pandemic. You look at those constant drops, and this franchise looks eerily like the “Expendables” franchise or Kenneth Branagh‘s Poirot movies that had sequels greenlit despite previous installments underperforming.
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Even so, it’s likely that “Saw X” will end up somewhere in the same range as “Jigsaw” – $15 to 18 million – likely bringing back the diehard fans but maybe not really expanding the existing fanbase. Reviews for “Saw X” won’t be released until late on Wednesday night, so we’ll have no idea if critics like this installment, though they also won’t matter much, since horror tends to be fairly review-proof.
“The Creator” really is this weekend’s X-factor, since it’s such an unknown quantity. It very well could draw business away from “Saw X” and/or vice versa, though “Creator” should benefit from its PG-13 rating to attract teens, as well as older sci-fi fans.
After breaking into the Top 10, Sony will expand the stock market comedy “Dumb Money” into more theaters across the country, though it’s unclear exactly how wide that will be. If it ends up in over 2,000 theaters, it could end up with roughly $2.5 to $3 million, about the same amount as this past weekend, which may not be enough to get into the Top 5.
Check back on Sunday to see how all the above movies do in what’s turning out to be the worst month at the box office this year, and also look for our preview of the October box office before the coming weekend.
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