Box office preview: Ava DuVernay’s ‘Origin’ competes against flashier studio fare

Edward Douglas
·4 min read
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After a fantastic MLK Jr. holiday weekend, we’re going into two weekends with either lower-profile releases or no new wide releases at all. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.

As far as the new releases this week, we have Ava DuVernay‘s critically acclaimed drama “Origin,” starring Oscar nominee Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“King Richard”), which takes a look into the world of Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and author Isabel Wilkerson, and her journey to writing 2020’s best-selling “Caste: The Origins of Our Discontents.”

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Co-starring Jon Bernthal, recent Emmy winners Niecy Nash-Betts and Nick Offerman, plus Finn Wittrock, Vera Farmiga and Audra McDonald, the movie has received strong reviews since it debuted at the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) last September before getting a platform Oscar-qualifying release in early December. It’s currently at 80% on Rotten Tomatoes.

It’s an interesting drama that spends equal time covering Wilkerson’s domestic life, having lost her husband and mother during a short period of time, while watching her formulate the theories that eventually became her prize-winning second book.

“Origin” is also DuVernay’s first major theatrical studio release since Disney’s “A Wrinkle in Time,” which made $100 million back in 2018. Before that, she directed the Oscar-nominated 2015 movie “Selma,” starring David Oyelowo as Martin Luther King Jr., which made $52 million domestically. Since then, DuVernay has been directing a lot of television and streaming fare, which has helped to build her brand among fans of her work if not necessarily giving her much weight in terms of being a box office draw.

We’ll have to see how many theaters Neon released this into on Friday. UPDATE: It turns out that NEON is only giving “Origin” a limited release into 130 theaters, so it’s not going wide, and most of what I wrote about its box office chances are moot, since it will probably open with less than a million dollars outside the Top 10 altogether.

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Directed by Gabriela Cowperthwaite (the doc “Blackfish”), the outer space thriller “I.S.S.” stars Oscar winner Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”) as a scientist sent to the International Space Station to work with fellow American and Russian astronauts and scientists before nuclear war erupts back on Earth. Co-starring with Debose are Chris Messina, John Gallagher Jr. and Pilou Asbæk (who just appeared in the “Aquaman” sequel), making for a tension-filled film that premiered at the Tribeca Film Festival last year to decent reviews.

“I.S.S.” will open in roughly 2,300 theaters on Friday, and it’s such a different movie for Bleecker Street that it really needs to get DeBose and others from the cast out there, if it wants people to pay to see it in theaters. With a decent trailer and reviews, it should be able to make around $5 million, which would put it in fourth place behind “Origin.”

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On Thursday, “Queen Rock Montreal,” a concert movie from 1981, will be opening in an unknown number of IMAX theaters across the country. Considering the hit rock group’s diehard fans to this day, it shouldn’t be too surprising if this manages to get into the bottom half of the top 10 as well.

Apparently, Dark Sky Films will be releasing Erik and Carson Bloomquist‘s indie slasher film “Founders Day” moderately wide this weekend, though it’s hard to imagine it will do that well, even if it only needs $2.2 million or so to get into the Top 10.

Next week is likely to be even worse, with absolutely zero new wide releases. At least on February 2, there’s a new Matthew Vaughn action-comedy, but movies will also be going up against the Grammys and then the Super Bowl a week later. In other words, we should probably enjoy going to the movies in January while we can.

Check back on Sunday to see how the two new wide releases do against the returning movies.

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