Box office preview: ‘Ant-Man’ faces competition from ‘Cocaine Bear’ and ‘Jesus Revolution’

We’re almost through the month of February, and while Marvel’s “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” should remain #1, it’s likely to have a pretty major drop based on its “B” CinemaScore, and the fact that it opened over a holiday weekend. Look for “Ant-Man” to bring in around $40 million or possibly even less on its second weekend. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.

As far as new movies, Universal is offering “Cocaine Bear,” a wild R-rated horror-comedy about a bear that finds and eats a package of coke it finds in the woods and then goes on a rampage. Based on a true story, this one is directed by Elizabeth Banks, and it stars Keri Russell, Alden Ehrenreich, O’Shea Jackson Jr, Isaiah Whitlock Jr, Margo Martindale and the late, great Ray Liotta. It’s a fun cast, but the real selling point will be the dumb fun that comes along with a coked-up grizzly bear. 

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In many ways, it’s reminiscent of “Snakes on a Plane,” starring Samuel L. Jackson, which opened with $15.2 million in 2006, and grossed $34 million in North America alone. Those numbers pointed to definite front-loading, which could affect “Cocaine Bear” as well, if the actual movie doesn’t live up to expectations created by the trailers.

Reviews won’t hit for this until sometime Thursday afternoon, which is not a great sign, but the movie’s trailers and commercials have done enough to sell the outlandish premise, possibly making this review-proof. “Cocaine Bear” should be able to make somewhere between $14 and 17 million this weekend for second place.

SEE February 2023 box office preview: ‘Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’ sets up Marvel’s Phase 5

Lionsgate has had decent luck with faith-based films in the past, and “Jesus Revolution” is a historic drama about the surge of spirituality in California during the ‘70s. Directed by Jon Erwin (“I Can Only Imagine”) and Brent McCorkle (“Unconditional”), the biggest name among the cast is Kelsey Grammer, who has been doing the talk show circuit to promote this and his upcoming “Frasier” revival.

It’s always hard to gauge how faith-based films might do in the Midwest and South (the proverbial “Bible Belt”), since Lionsgate never does much marketing in the bigger cities like New York and L.A. Even so, this should be good for $7 to 8 million or possibly more this weekend, which will put it comfortably in third place with none of the returning movies other than “Ant-Man” making more than $5 million. 

A bit of a late-breaking last-minute release is Roadside Attractions’ “My Happy Ending,” starring Andie MacDowell (“Four Weddings and a Funeral”) as a famous actor who ends up in a British hospital for treatment under an assumed name, where she meets three other women who help her get through treatment. It’s been a while since we’ve seen MacDowell in theaters, and this offers some of the same type of humor as her earlier Britcoms, although one wonders whether anyone even knows this movie exists. Due to the lack of stronger movies in theaters, this should still be able to get into the top ten with a million or slightly less.

SEE 2022 box office hits: Every movie that made more than $100 million

Another last-minute release is Warner Bros’ animated “Mummies,” being released into an unknown number of theaters this weekend with very little (actually no) fanfare. Featuring the likes of Sean Bean and Hugh Bonneville, this seems to merely be getting a theatrical release for awards consideration, and because there is room for another family film other than the unstoppable “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.”

IFC Films will release Daniel Antebi’s “God’s Time” in select theaters and on VOD this Friday, a savvy street comedy about two New York friends (Dion Costelloe, Ben Groh) who race through the city to try to stop their friend Regina (Liz Caribel) from murdering her ex-boyfriend. It’s doubtful that IFC will release this movie, which premiered at last year’s Tribeca Film Festival, very wide, but you never know these days.

Finally, NEON has the Oscar-nominated International Feature “The Quiet Girl” from Irish filmmaker Colm Bairéad, about a girl who is taken from her dysfunctional family to live with foster parents for the summer.

Check back on Sunday to see how all the above do.

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