Bob Odenkirk (‘Better Call Saul’) could sail to Emmy win if ‘Succession’ men split votes

In the summer of 2015, the recently concluded “Mad Men” held the record for the program with the most acting Emmy nominations and no wins, with a total of 37 bids spread among 13 performers. Eight were attributed to series star Jon Hamm, who finally broke the curse by conquering the Best Drama Actor category on his last try. Now that its own six-season run is over, “Better Call Saul” is in a similar situation with 13 unsuccessful acting notices. If lead Bob Odenkirk earns his sixth bid for the series this year, he could benefit from the swan song nature of his performance, as well as from vote-splitting among some of his strongest challengers.

Gold Derby’s current odds indicate Odenkirk is in a comfortable position to win his first acting Emmy for his dramatic work on “Better Call Saul” and possibly be simultaneously recognized as the star of the new comedy series “Lucky Hank.” Included among those who could stop him from potentially bringing the former series its long-awaited first TV academy honor are “Succession” cast mates Brian Cox and Jeremy Strong, the latter of whom took the gold in 2020. Last year’s race ended with both of them losing alongside Odenkirk to the presently ineligible Lee Jung-jae (“Squid Game”).

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SEE 4 reasons ‘Better Call Saul’ should win Best Drama Series

Like Odenkirk, Cox and Strong may win votes because the latest season of their show is its last, but there are several other factors working against them. For instance, viewers were only introduced to their characters five years ago, whereas Odenkirk’s Jimmy “Saul Goodman” McGill existed for about three times as long.

After seven years of thoroughly getting to know the former “Breaking Bad” character on his spin-off series, TV academy members may feel especially inclined to reward an extensive job well done, just as they did with Hamm, Matthew Rhys (“The Americans”) and Kyle Chandler (“Friday Night Lights”).

SEE2023 Peabody Awards: ‘Abbott Elementary,’ ‘Atlanta,’ ‘Better Call Saul,’ ‘Severance’ among nominees

Although Strong has proven he can beat Cox, there is also precedent for him not having done so. Additionally, there has never been an instance of a one-time Best Drama Actor winner being subsequently honored for his show’s final season. He would benefit from Cox opting to vie for the supporting or guest trophy instead, but the chances of him moving are low. He would only be the second previous lead male nominee to shift to either category (after Jeffrey Wright of “Westworld” and Mandy Patinkin of “Chicago Hope,” respectively) and would undoubtedly detract from supporting “Succession” hopefuls Matthew Macfadyen, Nicholas Braun and Alan Ruck.

With Cox and Strong probably staying put, Lee and anyone else who has beaten him out of the way, and the memorability of his popular character’s final moments, Odenkirk is arguably closer than ever to clinching an acting Emmy. If nothing else, the three-way rematch involving him and the “Succession” duo will surely be one of the most exciting of the year.

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