Will Bill Hader (‘Barry’) pull off a SAG Awards shocker against double ‘The Bear,’ ‘Ted Lasso’ actors?

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The Screen Actors Guild Award race for best comedy actor may seem like an easy decision for Jeremy Allen White, who seems to be an unstoppable force, sweeping all the award shows for the debut season of “The Bear,” and already winning the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award for the second installment. While the FX series has been dominating the television categories, White faces an obstacle at the SAG Awards that could pave the way for another actor from a different series, namely Bill Hader for the final season of “Barry.”

Looking at the current makeup for best comedy actor, it follows a trend that has been current over the last few years. In three out of the last five years, the lineup of five has consisted of two shows with two actors each and one sole nominee. Two of the three winners went to the sole nominee, perhaps a factor being due to both series’ pair of performers vote-splitting. This is the third consecutive year this instance has happened with Hader competing with two actors from “The Bear” (White and Ebon Moss-Bachrach) and “Ted Lasso” (Jason Sudeikis and Brett Goldstein).

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Last year, White was the only contender for “The Bear,” with Hader alongside his co-star Anthony Carrigan, and the duo of Steve Martin and Martin Short for “Only Murders in the Building,” and White was able to pull out the win. In addition, Tony Shalhoub came out victorious in 2019 for “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” when Hader was against another one of his fellow actors Henry Winkler, along with Michael Douglas and Alan Arkin from “The Kominsky Method.”

But this year, Hader is all by his lonesome and it could work out in his favor if the pattern continues. Even though White seems to be able to cruise his way to victory as he has not lost a single prize since “The Bear” debuted in 2022, it is not entirely a complete cakewalk, since he is up against Moss-Bachrach who had a standout performance in the second season and has the potential to take votes away from him. The same can be said for the “Ted Lasso” match as Sudeikis and Goldstein are also powerful breakout stars of the sports series.

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As it stands in the current Gold Derby combined odds, White is dominating with a whopping 1,975 users predicting his second consecutive trophy and 31/10 odds. The rest of the contenders have only double-digit support among users, but Hader has 24 users on his side, 10 less than Sudeikis, who is in second with 4/1; meanwhile, Hader is in third, tied with 9/2 odds with Moss-Bachrach in fourth and Goldstein in fifth. If White was to eventually triumph, it would resemble the only previous time an actor won this specific lineup while competing with a co-star, which was in 2022 when Sudeikis beat Goldstein, as well as Douglas, Martin and Short.

But Moss-Bachrach is a newly crowned Emmy winner along with White, and that is sure to make a dent and play a role with the voters that will affect both of them. In addition to that, this is Hader’s final nomination for “Barry” and he has had a stellar swan song as his character goes through a ringer of emotions to wrap up his journey coming to terms with himself as a hitman finding his true identity that is profound and complicated, so this could be a farewell hug for his career-defining role in the HBO black comedy.

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