‘The Bikeriders’ could roll away with a lot of Oscars

“The Bikeriders” was a huge hit at the 2023 BFI London Film Festival. Jeff Nichols‘ movie, based on Danny Lyon‘s photography book of the same name, follows the lives of multiple members of a Midwestern motorcycle club in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Austin Butler makes a quick return to our cinema screens while Tom Hardy stages a comeback in a key supporting role.

Butler takes the lead as a young member of the club while Hardy features in a meaty role as the club’s leader. Jodie Comer is the true star of the picture, however, as a young woman who falls for Butler’s biker and recounts the events of the club. The movie has fared well with critics, meriting a 92% score on Rotten Tomatoes. That could indicate a major awards season for the American epic, which 20th Century is releasing stateside on Dec. 1. Let’s take a closer look at all of the Oscar categories in which “The Bikeriders” could contend.

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Best Picture
The movie very much feels like it could be a potential Best Picture nominee. It’s an all-American epic and actually feels like a movie that would have taken the Oscars by storm in the 1970s or even the 1980s (“Easy Rider” is referenced in the movie, by the way). It has dramatic weight, it tells a specific story in a unique world, and Nichols has a clear love and control over the narrative he is telling. This is a very well-made period film, which we know the academy likes. “Nightmare Alley,” “Ford v Ferrari,” “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” and “Phantom Thread” are all exquisitely put-together movies that tell stories in unique worlds set and specific time periods. “The Bikeriders” could join that pack. It’s also a movie that could appeal to the male contingent of voters, which is a large percentage of the academy. Currently, however, our predicted nominees for Best Picture according to our Oscars odds chart are “Oppenheimer,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Barbie,” “Poor Things,” “The Holdovers,” “Maestro,” “Past Lives,” “The Color Purple,” “Anatomy of a Fall,” and “American Fiction.”

Best Director — Jeff Nichols
Nichols has never been nominated for an Oscar before but the filmmaker has slowly built up a respected and admired filmography, including the likes of “Mud” and “Loving.” This one, however, feels like his best work yet. In fact, it feels like this is the film he’s wanted to make for some time, a passion project if you will. This is definitive Nichols. Voters may recognize that. Martin McDonagh was nominated for Best Director earlier this year for his seminal “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Bong Joon Ho won Best Director in 2020 for “Parasite,” surely his best work. And George Miller was nominated in 2016 for “Mad Max: Fury Road,” which is quintessential Miller. “The Bikeriders” is that piece of work for Nichols. Our predicted nominees in this category are Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”), Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”), Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”), and Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”).

Best Actress — Jodie Comer
Comer once again proves how good she is at accents with her role, nailing the Midwestern voice. That, combined with her controlled, emotional performance and demeanor, elevates this role above what it might have been in the hands of a lesser actress. Comer is popular with awards voters after her two BAFTA wins, one Emmy win, one Olivier Award win, and one Tony win. It feels like she’ll be nominated for her first Oscar soon and this could be the right project for that, especially if other contenders don’t pan out how we expect them to. At the moment, however, Comer is outside of our predicted five nominees: Emma Stone (“Poor Things”), Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”), Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”), and Fantasia Barrino (“The Color Purple”).

Best Actor — Austin Butler
Butler is one of the hottest talents around at the moment, with his performance as Elvis Presley last year in “Elvis” and his upcoming role in “Dune: Part Two” demonstrating that he has star power. He proves that again here with a performance that is certainly quieter than his one in “Elvis” but no less charismatic. With his low, smokey voice and striking good looks, Butler commands the screen. This is a performance reminiscent of the likes of James Dean, such as Butler’s obvious, and powerful, charisma. Voters could be taken by that and Butler could earn an afterglow nomination after he landed a Best Actor bid last year for “Elvis.” He’ll have to crack our predicted five nominees first, though: Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”), Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”), Colman Domingo (“Rustin”), and Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”).

Best Supporting Actor — Tom Hardy
We know that voters like Hardy in this category — he was nominated here in 2015 for his villainous role in “The Revenant.” This time, however, he plays a much more likable performance as the motorcycle’s club leader. Hardy commands the screen, too but in his own way — his is a different sort of charisma, but no less powerful. He arguably has more dialogue than Butler’s lead role, too, meaning that this is one hell of a meaty performance — similar to Christoph Waltz‘s Best Supporting Actor win in 2013 for “Django Unchained.” Hardy would be a worthy nominee here. Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”), Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”), Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”), and Willem Dafoe (“Poor Things”) are our current predicted nominees in what is possibly the strongest of the acting categories this year.

Best Adapted Screenplay — Jeff Nichols
The academy likes writer-directors and Nichols’ script here, adapted from a photo book, is moving, gripping, and builds a unique world with a well-told narrative. It’s a clean, clear script with a few narrative left-turns chucked in along the way for good measure. If voters don’t nominate Nichols for directing, this could be a good way to make up for it. They’ve done that before with Gerwig, who was nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay for “Little Women” after being snubbed for Best Director in 2020. Similarly, in the same year, fellow Best Director snubbee Taika Waititi won that writing category for “Jojo Rabbit.” And Damien Chazelle was nominated in the same category in 2015 for “Whiplash” after he, too, failed to land a directing bid. Again, “The Bikeriders” is not predicted to land a nomination in this category, however, with our current predicted nominees being “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Oppenheimer,” “Poor Things,” “American Fiction,” and “The Zone of Interest.”

Best Cinematography
Adam Stone collaborated with Nichols before on “Midnight Special,” “Loving,” and “Mud” but this feels like his breakout work as a director of photography. Stone doesn’t just capture the roaming, roaring biker gangs on their travels down highways but he also captures the weary lines and crinkles on Hardy’s face, the moodiness of Butler’s striking posture, and the playful charm of Comer’s character. It’s great work and his peers will surely appreciate the fact that he is lensing a film based on a photography book. It’s a tough category, this one, however. Our current predicted nominees are “Oppenheimer,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Poor Things,” “Maestro,” and “The Zone of Interest.” Stone has never been nominated for an Oscar.

Best Film Editing
Julie Monroe has also never been nominated for an Oscar but she did earn an Emmy bid in 2022 for Outstanding Single-Camera Picture Editing for a Comedy Series for “Only Murders in the Building.” Voters like big, bold technical films in this category, and “The Bikeriders” feels like just that. “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Elvis” were nominated last year; “Dune” won the year before; “Sound of Metal” won in 2021; and “Ford v Ferrari” won in 2020. Our predicted nominees are “Oppenheimer,” “Poor Things,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “The Holdovers,” and “Barbie,” but “The Bikeriders” has a great shot at this particular category.

Best Sound
Again, technical movies tend to do well in this category. “Top Gun: Maverick” won last year while “Elvis” was also nominated; “Dune” won in 2022; and “Sound of Metal” won in 2021. Then, in 2020, the last time sound was split into two categories, “1917” and “Ford v Ferrari” earned bids in both Sound Mixing and Sound Editing with “1917” winning for mixing and “Ford v Ferrari” winning for editing. As you can see, there is considerable overlap between Film Editing and Sound. If a film gets nominated in one category, they have a good shot at sneaking into the other. “The Bikeriders” could do that this year, although it is currently unclear who would be on the ballot for a potential nomination in this category. We have not yet released the Oscars odds chart for this one.

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