The Biggest Midterms Surprises, from Lauren Boebert's Neck-and-Neck Race to the Red Wave That Wasn't
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PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP via Getty Voting booth
With control of the U.S. House and Senate hanging in the balance, pollsters and political forecasters made wide-ranging predictions ahead of Tuesday's long-anticipated midterm elections. Some of those predictions — like the "red wave" many Republicans claimed would sweep the nation — did not materialize.
Still, there were some races that were far closer than predicted and a handful of candidates who won despite the considerable odds against them.
Below, the biggest surprises of the midterm elections so far, updated regularly as more races are called and the future of the nation's political makeup becomes more clear.
No Red Wave
Mark Makela/Getty John Fetterman
Perhaps the biggest shock of all was that there were far fewer major upsets than many polls had suggested ahead of Election Day.
As ballots continued to be counted across the country, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham weighed in on early returns, telling NBC News the midterms were, "Definitely not a Republican wave, that's for darn sure."
"A wave would have been capturing New Hampshire and Colorado," Graham told host Savannah Guthrie, referencing Republican losses in the New Hampshire and Colorado Senate races.
In New Hampshire, Democrat Sen. Maggie Hassan retained her seat even as recent polls had suggested her race against Republican Don Bolduc — who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump — would be close. Instead, Hassan won with about 54% of the vote, according to the Associated Press.
Colorado's Senate race also failed to be as competitive as Republicans had hoped, with Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet winning a third term in Congress with 55% of the vote to Republican Joe O'Dea's 43%.
Other races, while close, also did not land Republicans the easy path to a Senate majority they had hoped. In Arizona, vote-counting remains ongoing, though early totals showed a neck-and-neck race between Republican Kari Lake and Democrat Katie Hobbs. In Pennsylvania, Democrat John Fetterman overcame doubts about his health to beat Trump-endorsed Dr. Mehmet Oz, flipping the seat blue.
RELATED: John Fetterman Defeats Dr. Oz in Critical Pennsylvania Senate Race, Huge Win for Democrats
Speaking on NBC News, Sen. Graham offered a "hats off" to Democrats, noting, "they have performed well in a lot of these swing districts."
Still, other GOP insiders saw the lack of a red wave as indicative that voters were pushing back on former President Trump.
"The Republicans have had enough of Trump, we want to move on," one GOP source told PEOPLE. "The midterms results speak for themselves: a referendum on Trump."
Uvalde Votes for Greg Abbott
CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP via Getty Images
While Republican Gov. Greg Abbott's victory was somewhat unsurprising in deep red Texas, his victory in Uvalde County was striking considering recent events.
In May, Uvalde's Robb Elementary School was the site of the deadliest school shooting in nearly a decade when 21 people, including 19 children, were killed by a gunman.
When Abbott visited a makeshift memorial set up in the days after the tragedy, he was booed by a crowd of onlookers, with some chanting, "shame on you."
"Please, Governor, help Uvalde County! We need change! We need change, governor. We need change. Our children don't deserve this," a man shouted, in a moment captured on video that was posted to Twitter. "Our children are under constant attack in this community. We need help."
On Tuesday, Abbott won Uvalde County overwhelmingly, receiving more than 60% of the vote to democrat Beto O'Rourke's 38%.
RELATED: Greg Abbott Defeats Beto O'Rourke in Texas Gubernatorial Race
O'Rourke had made headlines of his own in Uvalde when he interrupted one of Abbott's press conferences on the shooting, accusing the Republican of doing nothing to halt gun violence.
"The time to stop the next shooting is right now and you are doing nothing," O'Rourke told Abbott, per CNN.
"You said this is not predictable," O'Rourke continued of the shooting. "This is totally predictable."
Florida Enters Red State Territory
Executive Office of the Governor, State of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Casey DeSantis
While a red wave didn't exactly sweep the nation, in Florida, Republicans saw sweeping victories.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — who is widely rumored to be mulling a 2024 presidential campaign that could pit him directly against Trump — won reelection with a nearly 20% lead over his opponent, Democrat Charlie Crist. The race was called almost immediately after polls closed.
Republican Sen. Marco Rubio also coasted to reelection, beating his Democratic challenger by some 16 points.
It's worth noting that at least some of the success can be attributed to Republican fundraising, which dwarfed that of Democratic spending by some $250 million, but political pundits still took to network broadcasts and social media to declare the death of Florida's swing state categorization after a few-too-many red sweeps in recent years.
RELATED: Ron DeSantis Wins Second Term as Florida Governor, Beating Democratic Challenger Charlie Crist
Lauren Boebert's Close Race
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert
Republican firebrand Lauren Boebert had been heavily favored to win her reelection to the House, with election forecaster FiveThirtyEight giving her a 97% chance at securing the victory in its final Monday night prediction.
But as results poured in Tuesday evening, Democratic challenger Adam Frisch had a notable lead on the incumbent. Though the lead has since shrunk, Frisch, a former city councilman, remained ahead at the time of publishing. With more than 95% of votes accounted for, Boebert sits in a dangerous position that few saw coming.
Boebert — a provocative right-wing politician in the mold of former President Trump — was first elected to Congress in 2020, and won the Republican primary election in western Colorado's Congressional District 3 in June.
The lawmaker's freshman term has been checkered with controversy — that Boebert herself seemed to welcome at times.
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The 35-year-old was also accused of meeting with organizers of pro-Trump rallies on Jan. 6, 2021. She has denied any involvement in the violent riot that followed. Boebert, a fervent gun advocate, reportedly got into a standoff with Capitol Police when she refused to allow officers to search her bag after setting off metal detectors just days after the insurrection.
Prior to the results funneling in, Boebert tweeted triumphantly, "The red wave has begun! ... America First is winning!"
