Betting: Is there value in picking Dustin Johnson at The Masters?
Minty Bets is joined by Jay Busbee to give his top picks for The Masters this week from Augusta National.
Video Transcript
MINTY BETS: Bet $1 on any golfer and win $100 in free bets if they make a birdie. Go to betmgm.com/yahoospecial. The Masters is this weekend, and joining me is Jay Busbee, here to give us his best bets for the tournament. Jay, the usual favorites are expected to win. We've got DJ, Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas. Who out of these top golfers are your favorites to win the tournament?
JAY BUSBEE: Well, straight up, any one of these guys could win, and almost certainly, one of these guys is going to be in the mix come the end of the day Sunday. One of them is also going to have a terrible Thursday and flame out and be gone by the weekend. We just don't know which one. That's what makes the Masters so much fun to watch.
You can guarantee that one of these guys is going to be in contention for the title though. And probably the best bet amongst all of these is Dustin Johnson. He's defending champion, he's been absolutely astounding in Augusta. In addition to his win last year, he's got to run of five straight top tens. But you're not going to make a lot of money on Dustin Johnson.
You might want to look a little bit further down the leaderboard. And a couple of guys that I think you want to maybe keep an eye on both pro and con are guys that have had ghosts at Augusta that continue to come back and bite them. One of them, Jordan Spieth. He's been on an astounding run of late. He's getting everything in his game back in shape.
He's giving fans hope that a return to his mid 2010s form, back when he won a green jacket, is high. But they're hoping that he's going to be much better than he was in 2016 when he gave away a green jacket on the 12th hole. Either way, he's coming in with some of the lowest odds on the board, so keep an eye on him.
On the other side of the coin, you've got Rory McIlroy, who was also got his own set of ghosts. He's been a mess the last few weeks. He's been angry at himself, he's been angry at his game, his coach, the entire universe. That's not to say that he can't come through and finally get that career grand slam, but I would proceed with very much caution on Rory McIlroy.
MINTY BETS: All right. And do you like any long shots to make it at Augusta National? Anyone maybe like first timers?
JAY BUSBEE: There's, yeah, there's actually a couple of guys that fit into this category of long shots. With Augusta, you want to look at a couple of things. First of all, their comfort on the course, and then how well they're coming and playing. A guy named Cam Smith, not a whole lot of familiarity for a lot of American audiences, but the last three Masters he's got a fifth and a second place finish, and he's had a decent run of success so far.
At the other end of the coin, you've got Will Zalatoris. He has never played in the Masters, which is going to be a very, very tricky thing for him to overcome, but he's on a strong run this season. And he's really important in a key category of strokes gained around the green.
MINTY BETS: All right. And how will the conditions at Augusta affect the way you'll be beating this?
JAY BUSBEE: Well, I'm going to keep an eye on that category that I just mentioned, shots gained around the green, for the simple reason that it's going to probably, most likely be dry at Augusta. That means firm and fast conditions. We all know that the greens at Augusta are like roller coasters. But the ability to approach the green and to put the ball where you want it and not have it slide off the edge of the green all the way to South Carolina, that's going to be a key statistic.
And so if you look at that, one of the leaders in that category, Collin Morikawa, PGA champion. He's got odds right around former champion Patrick Reed. Not terrible, not great, but he's one that you want to keep an eye on. Right down a little further in that category right behind him, Justin Thomas, one of the betting favorites. Now his finishes at Augusta have gotten steadily better. 39, 22, 17, 12 and 4. That means there's not a whole lot of room for him to go much further without winning that green jacket. But it also means you're probably not going to make a whole lot of money on him.
Bottom line though, what you want to take a look at, is these stats, shots gained around the green, shots gained on approach, shots gained putting. When you want to make your bets, look at who's leading the PGA TOUR in those categories, put your money in that direction.
MINTY BETS: Good stuff. Thank you so much, Jay.