Betting: Should you bet an underdog in a close matchup?
Jared Quay, Preston Johnson & Matt Moore of the Action Network discuss the value of taking the moneyline or betting the underdog in a close point spread.
Video Transcript
JARED QUAY: We were talking about a game being at 1 and 1/2. How do you guys feel about betting? You would never bet plus 1 and 1/2, you'd do moneyline? You ever take the-- that little small margin, does that ever help you?
MATT MOORE: I'll take it.
PRESTON JOHNSON: Depending on their juice.
MATT MOORE: I'll take it. Yeah, I think it I get better juice on it. Like right now, a minute ago, you could have gotten Pels minus 1 and 1/2 at plus 105.
JARED QUAY: But--
MATT MOORE: Right now, it's plus 2 and 1/2 at minus 115.
JARED QUAY: How rare--
MATT MOORE: So watching the juice matters.
JARED QUAY: How rare is it for a game-- oh, wow. How rare is it for a game to basically go within 1 point? I mean, obviously, with fouls, teams don't really want to let it go on like that, unless it's, like, a one-possession game and you go for, you know, the 2 point you missing. I just feel like 1 and 1/2, you might as well go moneyline.
PRESTON JOHNSON: I'll tell you-- I'll tell you this. It's gonna be dependent on the juice. What I mean by that is if you have a minus 1 and 1/2 at minus 110, your book-- your sportsbook you're looking at may be offering moneyline at, like, minus 125.
Look, the difference between paying minus 110 versus minus 125 is pretty significant. And it's not the amount of times it lands exactly 1. So my intention in that is to say that it'd be better to bet minus 1 and 1/2 at minus 110.
Now, if the moneyline was minus 115 and the minus 1 and 1/2 was minus 110, then it might be worth paying the $.05 to get the moneyline for the times that it does land exactly 1. So it's going to be very dependent on the actual price and the juice. And people that are looking-- I mean, you can actually just google on the internet for betting, like, NBA betting charts, sides and totals.
And I mean, Matt, in the action work, I'm sure they have stuff up on their site. And you can find the actual percentage of the time a game lands exactly 1, and the percentage of the time it lands 2, 3-- and you can get a gauge of, OK, this is worth 1 and 1/2, 2%. Or this is worth 3%. Like, here are numbers like 5, 6, 7, 8, because of where things land after foul games and stuff late in the game.
So, yeah, google that, and you can do a little research. And you'll find the differences, but it's always going to be price-dependent. So it's a good question, I think. But a lot of the times you'll find minus 1 and 1/2's at minus 110 are going to be a better bet than, like, minus 125 or something [INAUDIBLE].
JARED QUAY: So just depending on how much money can you get returned?
PRESTON JOHNSON: Yeah, that's a [INAUDIBLE].
MATT MOORE: It's all about ROI, right, Preston?
PRESTON JOHNSON: It's the name of the game, for sure.
