Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars: What the last 10 winners tell us about this year

Jacob Sarkisian
·8 min read
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As we move closer to September, this year’s Oscars season begins to move into view. As it does, we’ll be taking a closer look at some of this year’s contenders, continuing here with Best Supporting Actor. This is a category that, last year, awarded Ke Huy Quan a victory for his performance in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” But who will take to the Oscars podium this year? Well, in order to look ahead, we must first look back. Let’s take a look at the last 10 years of Oscars history.

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Drama is the overwhelming favorite here, with nine out of the last 10 winners all coming from drama films. Only Quan, for the sci-fi “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” is the exception. What is more overwhelming, however, is the fact that all 10 of those winners won for films that were also nominated for Best Picture. In fact, there have been 11 winners in a row in this category who have won for Best Picture nominees — the 11th was Christoph Waltz for “Django Unchained” in 2013. Christopher Plummer was the last actor to win this category for a non-Best Picture-nominated film when he won for “Beginners” in 2012. The academy clearly likes a strong contender in this category rather than a film that picks up a few Oscar bids but doesn’t really make an impact.

Six out of these 10 winners have won for playing fictional characters: Quan for “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Troy Kotsur for “CODA,” Brad Pitt for “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Sam Rockwell for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Mahershala Ali for “Moonlight,” and JK Simmons for “Whiplash.” Only four won for playing real people: Daniel Kaluuya in “Judas and the Black Messiah,” Ali in “Green Book,” Mark Rylance in “Bridge of Spies,” and Jared Leto in “Dallas Buyers Club.” The academy prefers fiction here. They also prefer an Oscars newcomer, as seven out of these 10 winners have won for their first-ever Oscar nominations. The only three who were already past Oscar nominees or winners were Kaluuya, Pitt, and Ali for “Green Book.” Ali had previously won this category for “Moonlight,” while Kaluuya was nominated for Best Actor for “Get Out” in 2018. Pitt, meanwhile, won Best Picture in 2014 for “12 Years Slave.” This was his first acting win, however.

The profile of these 10 winners is also interesting. Pitt is the only A-list name on that list while Simmons and Quan are the only veterans (Rylance is a veteran of stage rather than film, and more for British work). This suggests that the academy likes more “middle ground” actors in this category — ones that they can bestow an Oscar on and elevate their career to the next level. They are star-makers in this category, more often than not, rather than star-lovers. That’s interesting.

Now, let’s use all of this information to dissect this year’s hopefuls. Currently, we think the following performers will be nominated for Best Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”), Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”), John Magaro (“Past Lives”), and Colman Domingo (“The Color Purple”). Let’s start with Domingo. He plays Misten Johnson in this new version of “The Color Purple.” He plays a fictional character in a film we expect will be nominated for Best Picture, while he has also never been nominated for an Oscar. That’s three checks. However, musicals just don’t do well in this category. The last actor to be nominated in this category for a musical was Eddie Murphy back in 2007 when he picked up bid for “Dreamgirls.” Plus, Danny Glover was crowded out by his female co-stars for the original version of this movie back in 1986 — when Whoopi Goldberg, Oprah Winfrey, and Margaret Avery were all nominated but Glover wasn’t. Currently, we think that Fantasia Barrino, Taraji P. Henson, and Danielle Brooks will be nominated for this new version of “The Color Purple.” Could history repeat itself? Will Domingo go the way of Glover? He feels on shaky ground, particularly as he may choose to put all of his awards focus on his Best Actor campaign for “Rustin.”

Then there is Magaro, who plays a fictional character in the drama “Past Lives,” which follows two childhood friends reconnecting years later (Magaro plays the husband of one of these friends). Magaro has never been nominated for an Oscar before and we predict that “Past Lives” will be nominated for Best Picture. Magaro checks every single box here. He seems a strong contender.

Then we move on to the three names with past Oscars history. First is Downey Jr, who plays Lewis Strauss in Christopher Nolan‘s “Oppenheimer,” which tells the true story of how J. Robert Oppenheimer created the atomic bomb. Playing a real-life character doesn’t help here, but the film is a drama and we definitely think it will be nominated for Best Picture. However, Downey Jr. was previously nominated for Best Actor for “Chaplin” in 1993 and Best Supporting Actor for “Tropic Thunder” in 2009. That could go against him in terms of securing the win. He is also an A-list name, like Gosling. However, while A-listers don’t often win in this category, they do get nominated. The 2020 lineup alone was full of stars: Pitt, Tom Hanks (“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”), Anthony Hopkins (“The Two Popes”), and Al Pacino (“The Irishman”).

Gosling stars as the fictional character Ken in Greta Gerwig‘s “Barbie,” which follows Margot Robbie‘s titular Barbie having an existential crisis. We think the film will be nominated for Best Picture but it is a comedy — the academy really like drama here. Gosling’s comedic, colorful performance might not be to the academy’s taste. It feels like he has the backing of fans and critics, but not necessarily Oscar voters. Plus, Gosling has had two Oscar nominations before — both for Best Actor. The first came in 2007 for “Half Nelson” and the second came 10 years later for “La La Land.” That could go against him, too.

And there is the legendary De Niro, who plays a real person — William “King” Hale — in Martin Scorsese‘s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” which follows the true story of the murder of Osage tribe members in the South of the USA in the 1920s. Playing a real person doesn’t help here, but at least the film is a drama and we do think it will be nominated for Best Picture. De Niro has an extensive Oscars history, too, with eight total nominations and two wins. He won this category in 1975 for “The Godfather Part II” and then won Best Actor in 1981 for “Raging Bull.” He was nominated for this category again in 2013 for “Silver Linings Playbook” while he earned a Best Picture nomination in 2020 for “The Irishman.” All of his other nominations came for Best Actor: in 1977 for “Taxi Driver,” 1979 for “The Deer Hunter,” 1991 for “Awakenings,” and 1992 for “Cape Fear.” His veteran status is an interesting one. Veterans don’t often win in this category, but they are nominated: Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”) and Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) last year, Simmons (“Being the Ricardos”) and Ciarán Hinds (“Belfast”) the year before, and Paul Raci (“Sound of Metal”) in 2021.

There are a couple of names just outside of our predicted five, however, that could sneak in — Samuel L. Jackson (“The Piano Lesson”) and Charles Melton (“May December”). Jackson plays a fictional character in the drama “The Piano Lesson,” which follows a family deciding what to do with a family heirloom — a piano. Jackson was previously nominated in this category in 1995 for “Pulp Fiction.” We don’t think “The Piano Lesson” will be nominated for Best Picture, however. Jackson may struggle here. Melton, however, ticks many more boxes. He stars as a fictional character in the drama “May December,” which follows an actress visiting a married couple in order to research for a film based on the couple’s scandal many years before. Melton plays the husband. He has never been nominated for an Oscar before and he fits the profile of actor that the academy likes to reward in this category — a star in the making who they can elevate. However, we aren’t predicting that “May December” will land a Best Picture nomination. That could hurt him but Melton ticks so many boxes that, if “May December” can make some traction in Best Picture, Melton could be a real, real challenger.

Currently, however, it looks like De Niro, Downey Jr, and Magaro are the surest bets with Gosling behind them and Domingo behind Gosling. Jackson and, in particular, Melton, will be nipping at both men’s heels. Let’s see how things develop in the coming months. Stay tuned.

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