Best Production Design at the Oscars: What time periods and genres win the most?

Below-the-line categories at the Oscars just don’t get the attention they deserve. The artistry on display helps to bring to life a movie. Visual effects are such a key part of the storytelling of “A New Hope.” Costume design is vital to the storytelling of “Phantom Thread.” And production design is so key in “Parasite,” “Avatar,” and “The Lord of the Rings” in so many different ways.

With that in mind, let’s take a look a closer look at some of the below-the-line categories, starting here with Best Production Design. We’re going to look at the last 10 winners in this category to work out if there is a pattern in the way the academy awards certain winners. They love biopics in the acting categories, for example, so what are they partial to in Production Design? Take a look at the below chart.

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These 10 winners seem like totally different movies but a closer look does show some similarities. Firstly, seven out of the 10 winners are movies that are set in the real world. “The Shape of Water” (Paul Denham Austerberry, Shane Vieau, and Jeff Melvin) depicts a fictional facility and “The Grand Budapest Hotel” (Adam Stockhausen and Anna Pinnock) is set in a fictional hotel, sure, but they are grounded in real life. Only “Mad Max: Fury Road” (Colin Gibson and Lisa Thompson), “Black Panther” (Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart), and “Dune” (Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos) are outright set in a fictional world. So the academy seems to prefer production design depicting the real world. That’s one thing.

How about genre? Well, there are three sci-fi movies that have won in the last 10 years and four period movies (three dramas and one comedy). The sci-fi movies are “Dune,” “Black Panther,” and “The Shape of Water.” The period movies are “Mank” (Donald Graham Burt and Jan Pascale), “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” (Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh), “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” and “The Great Gatsby” (Catherine Martin and Beverley Dunn). So they are the two prevalent genres. Time period is also an important factor. Two of the 10 winners are set vaguely in the future (“Mad Max: Fury Road” and “Dune”) while two are modern day. They are “La La Land” (Davis Wasco and Sandy Reynolds-Wasco) and “Black Panther.” However, it should be noted that “Black Panther” has a futuristic element to it, and “La La Land” definitely has a period feel to it. Those two elements likely helped both pictures win. There are two set in the 60s and three movies set between the 20s and 40s. That seems to be the sweet spot there. “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Christian M. Goldbeck and Ernestine Hipper) is the only war movie and is also the film set in the earliest time period (the 1910s). So, an ideal Best Production Design contender should either be a period film set in real-life in the 1920s-1960s or a sci-fi movie set in an alternate modern-day or in the future. Based on the last 10 winners, those are the two groups that seem to produce the best results.

But what does that mean for this year? We haven’t released our odds chart for Best Production Design just yet, so we don’t know who is expected to be the main contenders but a quick look at our Best Picture odds chart results in certain film titles standing out more than others.

Firstly, there are four period dramas set in real-life that could be up for the award: “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Oppenheimer,” “The Color Purple,” and “Asteroid City.” “Killers of the Flower Moon” is set in the 1920s — Jack Fisk is the production designer while Olivia Peebles and Adam Willis are the set decorators. Fisk was nominated in 2008 for “There Will Be Blood” and in 2016 for another Leonardo DiCaprio movie, “The Revenant.” Peebles and Willis are looking for their first bids.

Those two also worked on “Oppenheimer,” which is set in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s. Ruth de Jong is the production designer for that movie. She is also looking for her first Oscar nomination. “The Color Purple” production designer Paul D. Austerberry, set decorator Larry Dias, and costume designer Francine Jamison-Tanchuck will all be looking to recreate the American South in the early 1900s with this remake. Jamison-Tanchuck has never been nominated for an Oscar, but Dias was nominated for Best Art Direction for “Inception” in 2011 and Austerberry won Best Production Design for “The Shape of Water” in 2018. The original 1985 movie won this category, too (J. Michael Riva, Bo Welch, and Linda DeScenna).

“Asteroid City” is set in the 1950s. Stockhausen is the production designer here while Kris Moran is the set decorator. Moran has never been nominated for an Oscar but Stockhausen has three other nominations to his name (“12 Years a Slave” in 2014, “Bridge of Spies” in 2016, and “West Side Story” in 2022) to go with that win for “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” However, Wes Anderson‘s movies curiously don’t do as well in this category as you might think, given the meticulous design in his movies. Only “The Grand Budapest Hotel” has been nominated in this category out of all of his movies.

There is one major sci-fi movie coming out — “Dune: Part Two.” That will be looking to follow in its predecessor’s footsteps and win the award. Vermette continues with production design duties while Vieau takes over from Sipos. Vermette was also nominated for Best Production Design in 2017 for “Arrival”  and 2010’s “The Young Victoria.” Vieu won Best Production Design for “The Shape of Water” while he was also nominated in 2022 for “Nightmare Alley.” And then there is “Barbie,” which fits the “La La Land” and “Black Panther” mold as a film set in an alternate modern-day as well as in a fictional world. Production designer Sarah Greenwood and set decorators Katie Spencer and Ashley Swanson bring Barbie Land to life in spectacular style. Longtime collaborators Greenwood and Spencer have both been nominated for six Oscars together: “Pride & Prejudice” in 2006, “Atonement” in 2008, “Sherlock Holmes” in 2010, “Anna Karenina” in 2013, and “Beauty and the Beast” and “Darkest Hour” in 2018. Swanson is hoping for her first Oscar bid.

So, after all that consideration, we think this year’s Best Production Design nominees could well be “Barbie,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Oppenheimer” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” and “The Color Purple,” with “Asteroid City” waiting in the wings. Let’s see how things pan out but up next is Costume Design. Stay tuned.

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