Best Director at the Oscars: What the last 10 winners tell us about this year

Best Director has gone to a variety of movies in the last 10 years, ranging from outstanding technical achievements such as Alfonso Cuarón‘s “Gravity” to more emotional entries as Chloé Zhao‘s “Nomadland.” Let’s take a look at the last 10 years of Oscars history to see what kind of movies the academy like to give this award to, and how this affects the contenders for the upcoming Academy Awards. Take a look at the below chart.

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The first thing to note is the internationalism of the 10 winners. The only American winners were Damien Chazelle with “La La Land” and Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert with “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Mexican filmmakers have won five time — Cuarón in 2014 for “Gravity” and 2019 for “Roma,” Alejandro González Ińárritu in 2015 for “Birdman” and 2016 for “The Revenant,” and Guillermo del Toro in 2018 for “The Shape of Water.” Jane Campion is a New Zealander (for “The Power of the Dog”), Zhao is Chinese (for “Nomadland”), and Bong Joon-ho is South Korean (for “Parasite”). The academy has changed dramatically within the past decade with more modern instincts and a more diverse membership.

There is also great diversity in terms of genre. Drama used to be the order of the day in this category but, now, there is a real mix. Only three out of the last 10 winners have been conventional dramas — “The Power of the Dog,” “Nomadland,” and “Roma.” Other winners were movies that blur the lines between genres or blend together multiple genres. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is at once a sci-fi epic, an action movie, a comedy, and a moving family drama. “Parasite” is a drama, a comedy, a thriller, and a biting social satire. And “The Shape of Water” is a romance, a fantasy film, and a period thriller. The academy is now more open to braver filmmaking and more colorful films. Strong flavors are very much in vogue right now.

Then there is the technical achievement factor. Six of the last 10 winners can be classified as such: “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “Roma,” “La La Land,” “The Revenant,” “Birdman,” and “Gravity.” This is not to say that the other four film aren’t admirable achievements in their own right (of course they are), but these six stand out in that so much of their creation is rooted in their technical work. Consider the cinematography of “Birdman” and “Gravity,” the sheer scope of “The Revenant,” the editing of “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

The best-directed movie won Best Picture half of the time: “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “Nomadland,” “Parasite,” “The Shape of Water,” and “Birdman.” The losers were: “The Power of the Dog” (lost to “CODA”), “Roma” (lost to “Green Book”), “La La Land” (lost to “Moonlight”), “The Revenant” (lost to “Spotlight”), and “Gravity” (lost to “12 Years a Slave”). That once rock-solid union between Best Picture and Best Director has crumbled due to the use of the preferential ballot for the former.

What is more telling, however, is the fact that nine out of 10 winners directed movies that were entirely fictional. The only winner that directed a film based on a true story was Ińárritu, who won for “The Revenant.” That shows a clear preference — the academy likes fictional movies in this category. But that is very well and good for the past. What about the future? What does it mean for this year’s contenders? Well, let’s take a look.

We are currently predicting that the following directors will be nominated this year: Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”), Celine Song (“Past Lives”), Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”), and Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”).

Scorsese is directing a historical drama epic, “Killers of the Flower Moon,” which tells the true story of the murders of the Osage tribe in the South of the USA in the 1920s. The genre falls in line with what the academy likes — a drama — but the fact that it is a true story suggests that Scorsese may not be as strong a contender as we currently think. He is in first place in our odds chart and so is “Killers of the Flower Moon” in the Best Picture chart. However, that shaky split between Best Picture and Best Director remains — it’s no guarantee that “Killers of the Flower Moon” will win both Best Picture and Best Director. This would be Scorsese’s 10th nomination for Best Director, which would move him one ahead of Steven Spielberg and two behind the record holder William Wyler (12). He was nominated in 1981 for “Raging Bull,” 1989 for “The Last Temptation of Christ,” 1991 for “Goodfellas,” 2003 for “Gangs of New York,” 2005 for “The Aviator,” 2007 for “The Departed,” 2012 for “Hugo,” 2014 for “The Wolf of Wall Street,” and 2020 for “The Irishman.” He won in 2007 for “The Departed.”

Nolan has the same problem that Scorsese does — “Oppenheimer” is a film based on a true story. Specifically, it tells the tale of how J. Robert Oppenheimer created the atomic bomb. The academy prefer fiction in this category, although this wold go down as technical achievement and it is a genre (drama) they like. Nolan was previously nominated for five Oscars, including one Best Director bid. That came in 2018 for “Dunkirk,” which was also a technical achievement telling a true story. He was also nominated for Best Original Screenpay twice (in 2002 for “Memento” with brother Jonathan Nolan and in 2011 for “Inception”) and Best Picture twice (for “Inception” and “Dunkirk”). “Oppeneheimer” is currently in second place in our Best Picture odds chart, too, so that helps. Song is an interesting one. Her movie tells the tender story of two childhood friends who meet years later and find that their connection is still as strong as ever. This wouldn’t go down as a technical achievement win — it’s a story more concerned with emotion and feeling. It is a fictional story, however, and “Past Lives” is predicted to reap a Best Picture nomination, so that gives Song a boost. Song has never been nominated for an Oscar before.

Glazer directs “The Zone of Interest,” a WWII movie about the Nazi commandant at Auschwitz who tries to build a dream life for his wife and family next to the concentration camp. Again, this is a true story, while it doesn’t seem like this would go down as a technical achievement. “The Zone of Interest” is predicted to reap a Best Picture bid but it does very much feel on the bubble. Glazer has also never been nominated for an Oscar. Out of our predicted five contenders, this one, for me, feels the most at risk of dropping out.

Villeneuve seems a better prospect. He directs “Dune: Part Two,” the second part of the sci-fi epic that follows Timothée Chalamet‘s Paul Atreides on a quest for revenge against those who destroyed his family. Now, this one would be a technical achievement win, it is a genre that the academy appreciate more and more in recent years (sci-fi), and we think “Dune: Part Two” is a safe bet for a Best Picture bid. This one feels more certain. Villeneuve was previously nominated for Best Director in 2017 for “Arrival” (another sci-fi movie) while he reaped two bids for “Dune” in 2022 — Best Adapted Screenplay with Jon Spaihts and Eric Roth and Best Picture. He was snubbed, however, for Best Director. But this is the second and final installment of this mammoth film series that the academy clearly admire (“Dune” won six Oscars) — so Villeneuve could follow the likes of Peter Jackson (who won Best Director in 2004 for “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”) and feel the love from the academy for helming the final chapter of a massive technical undertaking.

There are also some names just outside of the top five, however, that are worth considering, such as Greta Gerwig, who helmed “Barbie,” and Blitz Bazawule, who directs “The Color Purple.” Let’s start with Bazawule. His movie is a musical, which we know the academy are partial to. Chazelle won for “La La Land,” while Spielberg was nominated for “West Side Story” in 2021. Bazawule’s film is based on a fictional story while any musical counts as a technical achievement. He seems a strong contender and, if he did get in, he’d earn his first-ever Oscar nomination. Gerwig, meanwhile, is a very interesting choice.

“Barbie” follows Margot Robbie‘s titular Barbie leaving Barbie Land and heading into the real world to solve her existential crisis. This film is highly original and fictional and would fit right in alongside the other strong flavor winners in this category such as “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “Parasite,” “The Shape of Water,” and “La La Land.” The academy like BOLD movies in this category — and no movie is more bold (or pink) than Gerwig’s “Barbie.” This film would go down as a technical achievement, too, thanks to its musical numbers, extensive sets, and practical effects, while we also predict it to be nominated for Best Picture. The only factor that might go against “Barbie” is the fact that it is a movie all about tone. It trends that fine line between humor and sentiment, satire and emotion. Other movies with a similar command of tone have often been overlooked in the Best Director category, such as Taika Waititi’s “Jojo Rabbit,” Martin McDonagh‘s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” and Adam McKay‘s “Don’t Look Up.” However, Waititi won Best Adapted Screenplay in 2020 and McDonagh (2018) and McKay (2021) were nominated for Best Original Screenplay. These sort of films tend to get rewarded more for writing than directing, so Gerwig may get confined to Best Adapted Screenplay.

That’s the lay of the land in Best Director for now, however, and after that examination, it very much feels like it is anybody’s game. Scorsese and Nolan will likely get in for their technical achievements and for their names, while Villeneuve seems like a safe bet, too. Song, Glazer, Bazawule, and Gerwig, however, are all competing for those final two or three slots. It’s going to be a helluva of an Oscars season.

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