Beginner’s luck: Season 1 is the way to win for stars at the Emmys

Matthew Stewart
·4 min read
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The 22 continuing series leads currently nominated for Primetime Emmys hail from 18 different programs each consisting of up to half a dozen seasons. When it comes to determining which four will triumph, a great deal of insight can be gained by examining past victories with regard to how long the winning performers had been playing their characters. Naturally, seven decades’ worth of results indicate significant consistency in terms of how long it takes series stars to win the favor of the TV academy.

Considering all four categories in which comedy and drama series leads compete, the largest subgroup of victors (28.7%) is made up of those who were honored for their first seasons. During the 2020s, this roster has grown to include Zendaya (“Euphoria”), Jean Smart (“Hacks”), Jason Sudeikis (“Ted Lasso”), and Lee Jung-jae (“Squid Game”) and could gain as many as four new members this year. Since 44.3% of all Best Drama Actor winners are included here, Jeff Bridges (“The Old Man”) and Pedro Pascal (“The Last of Us”) have the best shots at joining this subgroup, followed in order by funny ladies Natasha Lyonne (“Poker Face”) and Jenna Ortega (“Wednesday”), dramatic actresses Sharon Horgan (“Bad Sisters”), Bella Ramsey (“The Last of Us”), and Keri Russell (“The Diplomat”), and comedic actors Jason Segel (“Shrinking”) and Jeremy Allen White (“The Bear”).

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Said bunch of inaugural season winners are separated from those who prevailed on their sophomore outings by 10.3%. Aside from two-for-two champ Zendaya, the only 2020s addition to that subset has been Jeremy Strong (“Succession”), while the only possible new entrants are Quinta Brunson (“Abbott Elementary”), Melanie Lynskey (“Yellowjackets”), and Martin Short (“Only Murders in the Building”). The third and fourth season groups are currently equal in size (13.5%) and have great potential to expand soon thanks to Sudeikis and Strong, respectively. The latter and three of his cast mates – Brian Cox, Kieran Culkin, and Sarah Snook – are all nominated for their show’s fourth season, as is Bill Hader for “Barry.” Meanwhile, the only other performer who could win this year on her third try is Christina Applegate (“Dead to Me”).

Two of the remaining three present lead contenders – Rachel Brosnahan (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”) and Elisabeth Moss (“The Handmaid’s Tale”) – are nominated for their shows’ fifth seasons, leaving Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”) as the only representative from a six-season (or beyond) program. Respectively, 9.4% and 7.4% of past lead winners boasted similar tenures, while 9.1% triumphed even later, with the high-end record being shared by 11th season Best Comedy Actor recipients Ted Danson (“Cheers”) and Kelsey Grammer (“Frasier”).

Including those of Danson and Grammer, 14.8% of all victories in these four categories have been for farewell seasons. That could potentially apply to one or several of nine current nominees, including the “Succession” quartet as well as Applegate, Hader, Brosnahan, Odenkirk, and (presumably) Sudeikis. The fact that Snook’s category has not welcomed a final season winner since 1996 (Kathy Baker, “Picket Fences”) demonstrates that male wins of this kind are significantly more common, by a ratio of 1:1.6.

Based on decades of precedent, the simple truth is that the newness of a lead actor’s show typically positively correlates to their Emmy chances. With this in mind, White can probably count on finally adding one to his extensive awards collection, while Lyonne could easily end up proving her doubters wrong. And, although the “Succession” crew are expected to dominate on the drama side, one shouldn’t discount one or two “Last of Us” surprises.

The winners of this year’s Best Actor and Actress Emmys will be revealed during the television academy’s 75th annual awards ceremony, airing Monday, January 15 on Fox.

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

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