Can Barry Keoghan (‘Banshees of Inisherin’) follow his BAFTA upset with a SAG surprise?

Barry Keoghan took most of us by surprise when he won the BAFTA Award for Best Supporting Actor for his role in “The Banshees of Inisherin” as a lovelorn young man who’s abused by his father. That was the first major industry peer group to announce their winners for acting, so does that mean Keoghan will prevail again at the upcoming SAG Awards?

Out of thousands of Gold Derby users who predicted the BAFTAs, fewer than 50 anticipated Keoghan’s victory. If a “Banshees” actor were going to win that, Brendan Gleeson seemed like the likelier choice since he has a much bigger role in the film; he’s a borderline co-lead as a man who abruptly cuts ties with his friend, setting the action of the film in motion. So Keoghan’s victory was something of a coup, especially since he also defeated Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”), who has been virtually unbeatable at events all season.

More from GoldDerby

• Swedish writer-director Ruben Östlund ('Triangle of Sadness') and his costar Woody Harrelson have a blast doing a virtual Q&A [WATCH]

• SAG Awards: All 13 times TV Drama Actor costars challenged each other [PHOTOS]

• 2023 SAG Awards TV Predictions: Best Drama Actress [Updated February 23]

SEEWhat ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’s’ BAFTA domination means for the Oscars

But Quan’s victories have come largely from media groups like Critics Choice and the Golden Globes. Those aren’t industry peer groups, so there was always a chance we’d see a stunning reversal as groups like BAFTA and SAG chimed in. That’s exactly what happened last year: Kodi Smit-McPhee (“The Power of the Dog”) had movie journalists wrapped around his finger, but the BAFTAs, SAG Awards, and Oscars went with Troy Kotsur (“CODA”).

But we’re not currently expecting Keoghan to take the SAG Award away from Quan. If anything, Keoghan is even more of an underdog here since he lacks the homefield advantage of competing at the BAFTAs with a British co-production. Almost all of our Experts are predicting Quan, as are all of our Editors, all of our Top 24 Users, and all of our All-Star Top 24. Only 23 out of more than 3,000 Gold Derby users as of this writing are forecasting Keoghan. So were the BAFTAs just a momentary bump in the road for Quan, or do you think we should be wary of another upset?

PREDICTthe 2023 SAG Awards nominees

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

Best of GoldDerby

• Who are the 38 actors and actresses with the longest gaps between Oscar nominations? [PHOTOS]

• Daniel Roher ('Navalny' director): 'The way that this film came together was such a fever dream' [Exclusive Video Interview]

• Colin Farrell ('The Banshees of Inisherin'): 'I'm pinching myself' over Oscar nomination [Complete Interview Transcript]

Sign up for Gold Derby's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

Click here to read the full article.