‘Barbie’ at the Oscars: Will Greta Gerwig win for writing, directing, both or neither?

Jacob Sarkisian
·5 min read
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Greta Gerwig deserves an Oscar nomination for her deft direction of “Barbie.” That much is obvious. However, the thing is that there are always more than five helmers who deserve a nomination for their work — meaning that at least one filmmaker is left out in the cold. There are only five nomination slots, after all.

Gerwig has already been bathed in this shadow before when she missed out on a Best Director bid in 2020 for “Little Women.” At this time of writing, it looks like history could repeat itself with “Barbie.” That movie, starring Margot Robbie as a Barbie suffering an existential crisis, will go down as the movie of 2023. It’s broken so many box office records, has grossed over $1 billion, has given us endless memes and a career-best Ryan Gosling, and treated us to one of the best songs of the year with Gosling’s “I’m Just Ken.” The movie is a masterclass in tone, shifting between broad comedy, cinematic throwbacks, and genuine emotion. It’s a high-wire act that could have easily fallen but Gerwig’s pitch-perfect direction ensured the film became nothing but a triumph.

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Despite all of that, however, Gerwig is currently just outside of our predicted five nominees for Best Director. At this time of writing, we are predicting that the five nominees will be: Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”), Celine Song (“Past Lives”), Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”), and Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”). So, it looks like Gerwig could be in for another snub (she was previously nominated for Best Director in 2018 for “Lady Bird,” though).

But t might not all be bad news, as we currently predict that Gerwig will be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay for “Barbie.” She co-wrote the script with her real-life partner Noah Baumbach, adapting it from the line of toys created by Mattel. At this time of writing, we think Gerwig and Baumbach will be nominated in this writing category alongside “The Zone of Interest,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Oppenheimer,” and “Killers of the Flower Moon.”

Gerwig could be the beneficiary of a classic Oscars trend — giving writing trophies to directors who miss out on a Best Director win or nomination. Voters appreciate a writer-director’s work but can’t quite give them the Best Director win or nomination. To make it up to them, however, they award them an Oscar in Best Original Screenplay or Best Adapted Screenplay as a sort of consolidation win. Here are some examples.

Taika Waititi missed out on a Best Director bid in 2020 for “Jojo Rabbit,” but he won Best Adapted Screenplay (he actually edged out Gerwig and “Little Women” in the process). Spike Jonze won Best Original Screenplay in 2014 after missing out on a Best Director bid and Quentin Tarantino won the same award the year earlier for “Django Unchained” after he also missed out on a Best Director nomination. These filmmakers prove that you can be snubbed for a Best Director nomination and still win an Oscar for writing, but what about if Gerwig does manage to sneak into the Best Director lineup? Well, that only increases her chances of a writing win.

Spike Lee was nominated for Best Director in 2019 for “BlacKkKlansman” but missed out on a win. He won Best Adapted Screenplay instead. Similarly, Barry Jenkins lost Best Director for “Moonlight” in 2017 but won Adapted Screenplay with Tarell Alvin McCraney. And, in 2016, Adam McKay couldn’t turn his “The Big Short” Best Director nomination win, but he did win Adapted Screenplay with Charles Randolph.

And how about Original Screenplay? Kenneth Branagh won for “Belfast” in 2022, Emerald Fennell won for “Promising Young Woman” in 2021, and Jordan Peele won for “Get Out” in 2018.

All six of them were nominated for Best Director but didn’t win. So, there you have it. A clear Oscars pattern that could lead to an Oscar win for Gerwig whether or not she makes it into the Best Director lineup.

At the moment, Gerwig is on three Oscar nominations — she was nominated for Best Director and Best Original Screenplay for “Lady Bird” in 2018 and then for Best Adapted Screenplay for “Little Women” in 2020. Gerwig could make that four or five nominations in total this year with “Barbie.” Meanwhile, Baumbach is also on three nominations. He has been nominated twice for Best Original Screenplay — in 2006 for “The Squid and the Whale” and in 2020 for “Marriage Story.” He was also nominated for Best Picture for “Marriage Story,” too. Baumbach could make it four nominations this year.

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