‘Barbie,’ ‘Oppenheimer’ and Netflix Aim to Dominate During Oscars Shortlist Voting
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The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences branches began voting today to determine the shortlists in 10 categories for the upcoming 96th Academy Awards. These categories, along with the number of films to be named, are: documentary feature (15), documentary short subject (15), international feature (15), makeup and hairstyling (10), sound (10), original score (15), original song (15), animated short film (15), live action short film (15), and visual effects (10).
The shortlist voting period runs from Dec. 14-18, with the finalists announced on Dec. 21. Nominations voting will occur from Jan. 11-16, and the official nominees in all categories will be revealed on Jan. 23.
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The Academy comprises nearly 10,000 eligible voting members, each belonging to one of 18 branches. Each branch nominates for its respective category (i.e., editors select editors, actors recognize actors, etc.). However, four branches (as of now) don’t represent specific awards categories: casting directors, executives, marketing/public relations and the recently created production and technology.
Of note is that each branch member casts a ballot for best picture, selecting their 10 favorite films of the year. All eligible voting members will choose their picks in every category to determine the Oscar winners in March.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
What can the shortlists reveal about the Oscar race?
While the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and other awards bodies are necessary stops on the awards circuit train, this next five-day window will provide the first indicators on how actual Academy voters are receiving this year’s overflowing list of hopefuls.
The documentary and international feature categories draw significant attention, given the amount of films in the running. The documentary branch determines the former, while the latter allows members to opt in and vote for the shortlist and eventual nominees.
The non-fiction race has been the site of the most notable snubs in recent years, such as “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” and last year’s “Good Night Oppy.” This suggests that nothing is truly “safe” in this race. Netflix presents strong possibilities with films like Matthew Heineman’s emotional “American Symphony” and Roger Ross Williams’ compelling “Stamped from the Beginning.”
National Geographic also stands as a potential contender with its examination of a young missionary’s death in “The Mission” and the look at the presidential campaign of the popular Ugandan-singer in “Bobi Wine: The People’s President.” The latter won best feature at the IDA Documentary Awards. Beyond these, predictions become more speculative.
Leading in the number of critics prizes won so far, Davis Guggenheim’s “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” is nominated for an Emmy, while also vying for a spot on the documentary feature list. We haven’t seen a film overlapping with both industry prizes in this modern era. I wonder if that will have any effect on its chances?
High-profile entries like the U.K.’s “The Zone of Interest” and France’s “The Taste of Things” hold firm ground in the international feature category. However, unexpected entries like Bulgaria’s “Blaga’s Lessons” and South Korea’s “Concrete Utopia” might emerge.
Variety reported that the Visual Effects Branch had narrowed their favorites to 20 before the voting period. Notable contenders included films like “The Creator,” “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” and “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts.” Surprises like Toho’s “Godzilla: Minus One” and Searchlight’s “Poor Things” also gained attention. Notably missing from the 20 was Universal’s historical biopic “Oppenheimer” by Christopher Nolan.
Predictions often err by focusing on absences. Last year’s best picture winner, “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” received 11 Oscar nominations but was omitted from makeup and hairstyling and visual effects, indicating a lack of support, which was ultimately untrue.
“Oppenheimer” seems likely to secure positions in sound and original score by Ludwig Göransson.
Makeup and hairstyling pose a challenge, although the aging of actors Cillian Murphy and Emily Blunt, alongside the impactful scene after Hiroshima’s bombing, might offer a chance. That will be undoubtedly be a spot for Bradley Cooper’s “Maestro” to flex its strength, in addition to its sound designs.
Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” shows promise after success in other awards groups this week, but it isn’t guaranteed in anything beyond its songs.
There are 94 original songs in the mix, which will deliver all three “Barbie” tracks by Billie Eilish (“What I Was Made For?), Dua Lipa (“Dance the Night”), and Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt (“I’m Just Ken”). In addition, high-profile musicians and stars like Lenny Kravitz, Jack Black, and Olivia Rodrigo are also campaigning for recognition, and will be hard to pass up.
The “Barbie” score by Ronson and Wyatt’s has been a question mark all season. The Critics Choice nomination helps, but the branch often favors previously recognized composers like Thomas Newman, Hans Zimmer, and even John Williams.
I’m most interested to see how the branch will decide between the composers with multiple pieces of music in the running. Among those are Kris Bowers (“The Color Purple” and “Origin”), Daniel Pemberton (“Ferrari” and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”), Alexandre Desplat (“The Boys in the Boat” and “Nyad”)
Also, the late Robbie Robertson’s work on Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” looks to be on track to become the eighth posthumous Oscar nominee for original score. Of those, two of movies won for its music – “Limelight” (1945) by Raymond Rasch and Larry Russell and “Around the World in 80 Days” (1956) by Victor Young. It was also surprising to see the song “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)”, by the Osage Tribal Singers, make it onto the eligibility list. Perhaps they can become a packaged deal?
The first round of BAFTA voting is also underway, making this time before the holiday break even more critical for campaigns.
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE |
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